Casey O'Neill was seconds from being choked out, then armbarred Eduarda Moura
The choke was in deep and her contract printed six cents. Then she got out, and the armbar came.
By ExclusiveTuna · UFC 331: Van vs Pantoja 2 · Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Casey O'Neill beat Eduarda Moura by armbar at 3:22 of round one at UFC 331 on September 19, 2026, at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. Moura had her in an anaconda choke and looked close to finishing it. O'Neill escaped, rolled into the armbar, and took Performance of the Night worth $100,000.
The short version
- Casey O'Neill beat Eduarda Moura by Submission (armbar), round 1, 3:22
- Early prelims, Women's flyweight, 3 rounds
- Closing line: Casey O'Neill −225, Eduarda Moura +185
- Casey O'Neill traded at 67¢ before the fight and settled at 100¢
What happened
Moura got the fight to the mat and sank in an anaconda choke. For a stretch it looked finished. O'Neill stayed calm, worked her head out of it, and the moment the grip broke she rolled straight through into an armbar. Moura tapped at 3:22 of round one. Sherdog logs the finish at 3:22 and UFC.com's own live article at 3:20. Either way, the escape and the finish were close to one continuous movement.
O'Neill is 28, born in Irvine, Scotland, and fights out of Australia. She came in ranked 12th at flyweight on a two-fight win streak and leaves at 12-2 with three in a row. Moura is 32 and Brazilian. She arrived at 12-2 herself, one loss on her record, and leaves at 12-3 on a two-fight skid. Two near-identical records going in, split by one scramble.
The UFC gave O'Neill one of the two Performance of the Night awards, $100,000, alongside Arman Tsarukyan. That is serious money for an early prelim on a card that was not a pay-per-view. It also puts a ranked flyweight back in the win column three times running, which is the kind of run that starts to matter at 125 pounds.
What the market did
Read this before the table. The lowest trade on this market printed at 6¢, and you will see that number quoted elsewhere. It was not a price you could buy at. It was a seller hitting the bid. The best offer at that moment was 17¢, 11¢ higher, and that is the number this page uses.
O'Neill's contract traded at 67c (-225) before the fight, a clear favourite without being priced as a formality. While Moura had the choke sunk in, the cheapest a buyer could have paid was 17c at 22:08Z on September 19. Moura was +185 on the book. She did not get the tap. O'Neill escaped, finished, and settled at 100c. A 50 cent hole, filled inside one round.
Other sites will quote 6c. That was a seller hitting the bid, eleven cents below the best offer, and the widest gap on the card after Shahbazyan. Seventeen cents is still what a market looks like when it has already scored the fight. A choke that is nearly finished and a choke that is finished look the same from outside, and the price cannot tell them apart. That risk runs both directions.
What each stake returned
| Stake | Contracts at 67¢ | Returned | Contracts at 17¢ | Returned |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100.00 | 149 | $149.00 | 588 | $588.00 |
| $200.00 | 298 | $298.00 | 1,176 | $1,176.00 |
| $5,000.00 | 7,462 | $7,462.00 | 29,411 | $29,411.00 94% of the minute |
The right half is the best offer that existed while the fight was live. Getting filled there still depends on size being available, which a candlestick cannot tell you. Where a stake would have been a large share of that minute's entire volume, the table says so rather than printing a number nobody could have collected. Volume on that minute was 31,351 contracts. Returns are gross of the Kalshi trading fee and are hindsight: they show what a price paid once the result was known, not what anyone should stake next.
The bout, on the record
| Result | Casey O'Neill def. Eduarda Moura |
|---|---|
| Method | Submission, armbar |
| Round and time | Round 1, 3:22 |
| Weight class | Women's flyweight, early prelims |
| Pre-fight price | 67c (-225) |
| Cheapest you could buy | 17c, 22:08Z Sept 19 |
| Lowest trade printed | 6c, a seller hitting the bid |
| Settlement | 100c, plus $100k Performance of the Night |
Quick answers
Who won Casey O'Neill vs Eduarda Moura at UFC 331?
Casey O'Neill won by armbar at 3:22 of round one. She escaped an anaconda choke and rolled straight into the submission. The UFC gave her Performance of the Night and a $100,000 bonus for it.
What time did the Casey O'Neill armbar finish come?
We use 3:22 of round one, which is what Sherdog records. UFC.com's own live article listed 3:20. The gap is two seconds and changes nothing about the result, method or round. We flag it rather than smooth it over.
How low did Casey O'Neill's contract trade during the fight?
The lowest trade printed at 6c at 22:08Z on September 19 while Moura had the anaconda choke in, but that was a seller hitting the bid. The cheapest a buyer could have paid was 17c. She had gone into the fight at 67c (-225) and settled at 100c after the armbar.
All 12 bouts and the full UFC 331 results board
Sources and method
Results and scorecards from the official UFC event pages, cross-checked against Sherdog and theScore. Closing moneylines from BestFightOdds and DraftKings, captured after the event. Contract prices are Kalshi one-minute candlesticks on the KXUFCFIGHT series, market KXUFCFIGHT-26SEP19ONEMOU-ONE. Where sources disagree on a finish time or a method, both readings are carried on this page rather than resolved silently. We aren't affiliated with the UFC or Kalshi.