Trade prediction markets like a quant.

One leg: 4 or more goals in the game. At the Kalshi ask it costs 86.0% and pays 1.16x; my number is 84%. $200 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.

One leg: 4 or more goals in the game. At the Kalshi ask it costs 86.0% and pays 1.16x; my number is 84%. $200 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.

One leg: the Mammoth with a 2.5 goal cushion. At the Kalshi ask it costs 85.0% and pays 1.18x; my number is 83%. $200 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.

One leg: the Avalanche with a 2.5 goal cushion. At the Kalshi ask it costs 84.0% and pays 1.19x; my number is 82%. $200 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.

One leg: the Rangers with a 2.5 goal cushion. At the Kalshi ask it costs 84.0% and pays 1.19x; my number is 82%. $200 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.

One leg: the Penguins with a 2.5 goal cushion. At the Kalshi ask it costs 82.0% and pays 1.22x; my number is 80%. $200 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.

2 legs, one idea: the Lightning with a 2.5 goal cushion; 4 or more goals in the game. At the Kalshi asks they cost 81.8% together and pay 1.22x; my number for all of them is 78%. $200 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.

2 legs, one idea: the Canadiens with a 2.5 goal cushion; 4 or more goals in the game. At the Kalshi asks they cost 77.4% together and pay 1.29x; my number for all of them is 73%. $200 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.

2 legs, one idea: the Devils with a 2.5 goal cushion; 4 or more goals in the game. At the Kalshi asks they cost 76.6% together and pay 1.31x; my number for all of them is 73%. $200 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.

One leg: the Hurricanes with a 1.5 goal cushion. At the Kalshi ask it costs 82.0% and pays 1.22x; my number is 81%. $200 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.

One leg: the Ducks with a 2.5 goal cushion. At the Kalshi ask it costs 86.0% and pays 1.16x; my number is 84%. $200 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.

Five legs, every one a player over: Brenton Strange 2+ catches and 15+ receiving yards, Trevor Lawrence 175+ passing yards, and Josh Downs 2+ catches and 10+ receiving yards. At the Kalshi asks they pay 2.01x, so the asks need 49.7%. The market’s own chances multiply to 40.2%, and because legs from one game rise and fall together I put the ticket nearer 37.0%. It is a read on the board, not a promise.

Five legs, every one a player over: Patrick Mahomes 150+ passing yards, Kenneth Walker III 50+ rushing yards, Xavier Worthy 10+ receiving yards and 2+ catches, and J.K. Dobbins 10+ rushing yards. At the Kalshi asks they pay 2.03x, so the asks need 49.2%. The market’s own chances multiply to 39.3%, and because legs from one game rise and fall together I put the ticket nearer 36.1%. That is short of what the price needs. It is a read on the board, not a promise.

Four legs, every one a player over: Aaron Rodgers 150+ passing yards, Denzel Boston 20+ receiving yards, Jaylen Warren 40+ rushing yards and Pat Freiermuth 10+ receiving yards. At the Kalshi asks they pay 2.09x, so the asks need 47.9%. The market’s own chances multiply to 44.0%, and because legs from one game rise and fall together I put the ticket nearer 40.5%. That is short of what the price needs. It is a read on the board, not a promise.

Five legs, every one a player over: Javonte Williams 40+ rushing yards, Ryan Flournoy 10+ receiving yards and 2+ catches, Dak Prescott 200+ passing yards and Jeremiyah Love 20+ rushing yards. At the Kalshi asks they pay 2.03x, so the asks need 49.2%. The market’s own chances multiply to 39.2%, and because legs from one game rise and fall together I put the ticket nearer 36.1%. That is short of what the price needs. It is a read on the board, not a promise.

Four legs, every one a player over: Kyler Murray 150+ passing yards, Jared Goff 200+ passing yards, Jameson Williams 25+ receiving yards and Jordan Addison 15+ receiving yards. At the Kalshi asks they pay 2.01x, so the asks need 49.7%. The market’s own chances multiply to 44.3%, and because legs from one game rise and fall together I put the ticket nearer 40.7%. It is a read on the board, not a promise.

Five legs, every one a player over: Caleb Douglas 10+ receiving yards and 2+ catches, Malik Washington 15+ receiving yards, Drake Maye 175+ passing yards and Greg Dulcich 10+ receiving yards. At the Kalshi asks they pay 2.18x, so the asks need 45.8%. The market’s own chances multiply to 40.4%, and because legs from one game rise and fall together I put the ticket nearer 37.2%. It is a read on the board, not a promise.

Five legs, every one a player over: Lamar Jackson 150+ passing yards, Josh Allen 175+ passing yards, Zay Flowers 40+ receiving yards and 4+ catches, and Ja’Kobi Lane 10+ receiving yards. At the Kalshi asks they pay 2.01x, so the asks need 49.7%. The market’s own chances multiply to 42.8%, and because legs from one game rise and fall together I put the ticket nearer 39.4%. It is a read on the board, not a promise.

One leg: the Panthers with a 1.5 goal cushion. At the Kalshi ask it costs 85.0% and pays 1.18x; my number is 87%. $200 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.

One leg: the Golden Knights with a 2.5 goal cushion. At the Kalshi ask it costs 83.0% and pays 1.20x; my number is 83%. $200 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.

One leg: the Kraken with a 2.5 goal cushion. At the Kalshi ask it costs 83.0% and pays 1.20x; my number is 83%. $200 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.

5 legs, one idea: two Charlotte shooters with White and Knueppel out, and Washington's two best players at low lines. At the Kalshi asks they cost 47.8% together and pay 2.09x. $100 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.

7 legs, one idea: six shooters who each need one three, Paul George two, at prices near the top of the board. At the Kalshi asks they cost 48.1% together and pay 2.08x. $100 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.

5 legs, one idea: Jamal Murray at two low lines and three Phoenix starters at theirs. At the Kalshi asks they cost 48.5% together and pay 2.06x. $100 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.

6 legs, one idea: Cunningham running Detroit's offense and Brooklyn's two scorers carrying theirs. At the Kalshi asks they cost 47.8% together and pay 2.09x. $100 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.

6 legs, one idea: Houston's guards and wings at their low lines, plus two Dallas shooters. At the Kalshi asks they cost 48.4% together and pay 2.07x. $100 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.

5 legs, one idea: Siakam with Haliburton out, and three Miami guards and wings at low lines. At the Kalshi asks they cost 48.5% together and pay 2.06x. $100 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.

4 legs, one idea: Minnesota's other starters taking on more with Edwards out. At the Kalshi asks they cost 48.0% together and pay 2.08x. $100 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.

5 legs, one idea: Curry and two Warriors shooters with Butler and Porzingis out, plus the Lakers' two best scorers. At the Kalshi asks they cost 48.6% together and pay 2.06x. $100 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.

6 legs, one idea: the two lead guards at two lines each, plus LeBron James's passing. At the Kalshi asks they cost 47.9% together and pay 2.09x. $100 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.

5 legs, one idea: Toronto's two guards and Orlando's top scorer, each with a star teammate out. At the Kalshi asks they cost 48.5% together and pay 2.06x. $100 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.

Six legs, every one a player over: Sam Darnold 150+ passing yards and 1+ touchdown pass, Jaxon Smith-Njigba 50+ receiving yards, Luther Burden III 20+ receiving yards, Rome Odunze 15+ receiving yards and Caleb Williams 150+ passing yards. At the Kalshi asks they pay 2.13x, so the asks need 46.9%. The market’s own chances multiply to 33.0%, and because legs from one game rise and fall together I put the ticket nearer 30.4%. It is a read on the board, not a promise.

Five legs, every one a player over: Garrett Wilson 3+ catches and 25+ receiving yards, Omar Cooper Jr. 15+ receiving yards, Geno Smith 150+ passing yards and Kirk Cousins 1+ touchdown pass. At the Kalshi asks they pay 2.03x, so the asks need 49.2%. The market’s own chances multiply to 42.5%, and because legs from one game rise and fall together I put the ticket nearer 39.1%. It is a read on the board, not a promise.

Six legs, every one a player over: Kyren Williams 30+ rushing yards, Puka Nacua 5+ catches and 50+ receiving yards, Omarion Hampton 15+ rushing yards, Matthew Stafford 175+ passing yards and Justin Herbert 125+ passing yards. At the Kalshi asks they pay 2.04x, so the asks need 49.1%. The market’s own chances multiply to 38.7%, and because legs from one game rise and fall together I put the ticket nearer 35.6%. It is a read on the board, not a promise.

Five legs, every one a player over: Joe Burrow 200+ passing yards and 1+ touchdown pass, Tee Higgins 30+ receiving yards, Chase Brown 30+ rushing yards and Tony Pollard 40+ rushing yards. At the Kalshi asks they pay 2.02x, so the asks need 49.6%. The market’s own chances multiply to 43.6%, and because legs from one game rise and fall together I put the ticket nearer 40.1%. It is a read on the board, not a promise.

Four legs, every one a player over: Michael Penix Jr. 175+ passing yards and 1+ touchdown pass, Bijan Robinson 50+ rushing yards and Chris Godwin Jr. 10+ receiving yards. At the Kalshi asks they pay 2.04x, so the asks need 49.1%. The market’s own chances multiply to 42.5%, and because legs from one game rise and fall together I put the ticket nearer 39.1%. It is a read on the board, not a promise.

7 legs, one idea: four starting guards who shoot and score most nights, priced at their low lines. At the Kalshi asks they cost 48.8% together and pay 2.05x. $100 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.

4 legs, one idea: three Memphis shooters and Portland's hottest one, each needing just one three. At the Kalshi asks they cost 48.7% together and pay 2.05x. $100 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.

6 legs, one idea: Sacramento's shooters getting their threes in a game both teams need. At the Kalshi asks they cost 48.6% together and pay 2.06x. $100 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.

2 legs, one idea: the Red Wings with a 2.5 goal cushion; 4 or more goals in the game. At the Kalshi asks they cost 76.6% together and pay 1.31x; my number for all of them is 75%. $200 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.

2 legs, one idea: the Wild with a 2.5 goal cushion; 4 or more goals in the game. At the Kalshi asks they cost 76.5% together and pay 1.31x; my number for all of them is 75%. $200 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.

2 legs, one idea: the Stars with a 2.5 goal cushion; 4 or more goals in the game. At the Kalshi asks they cost 75.7% together and pay 1.32x; my number for all of them is 75%. $200 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.

2 legs, one idea: the Hurricanes with a 1.5 goal cushion; 4 or more goals in the game. At the Kalshi asks they cost 75.7% together and pay 1.32x; my number for all of them is 74%. $200 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.

4 legs, one idea: Shai running a short-handed Thunder offense, with Flagg and Washington carrying Dallas without Marshall. At the Kalshi asks they cost 46.6% together and pay 2.14x. $100 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.

3 legs, one idea: the two leadoff hitters and Milwaukee's cleanup catcher, each with a hit, a run or an RBI in at least 73% of his starts. At the Kalshi asks they cost 38.9% together and pay 2.57x. $100 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.

4 legs, one idea: Miller carrying Charlotte's scoring while Diabate works the glass against a Detroit front line without Duren. At the Kalshi asks they cost 48.6% together and pay 2.06x. $100 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.

4 legs, one idea: Miami moving the ball through Mitchell and Giannis, with low assist lines for Adebayo and McCollum. At the Kalshi asks they cost 48.6% together and pay 2.06x. $100 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.

4 legs, one idea: Brunson running New York's offense with Alvarado out, and Anunoby getting to double figures. At the Kalshi asks they cost 48.4% together and pay 2.06x. $100 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.

2 legs, one idea: the Oilers with a 2.5 goal cushion; 5 or more goals in the game. At the Kalshi asks they cost 74.7% together and pay 1.34x; my number for all of them is 74%. $200 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.

2 legs, one idea: the Avalanche with a 2.5 goal cushion; 4 or more goals in the game. At the Kalshi asks they cost 75.7% together and pay 1.32x; my number for all of them is 75%. $200 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.

2 legs, one idea: the Capitals with a 1.5 goal cushion; 4 or more goals in the game. At the Kalshi asks they cost 73.9% together and pay 1.35x; my number for all of them is 73%. $200 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.

2 legs, one idea: the Maple Leafs with a 2.5 goal cushion; 5 or more goals in the game. At the Kalshi asks they cost 70.6% together and pay 1.42x; my number for all of them is 70%. $200 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.

3 legs, one idea: Jokic running Denver's offense against a team he put up 35, 15 and 10 on four days ago, with Zion still getting his points. At the Kalshi asks they cost 48.6% together and pay 2.06x. $100 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.

5 legs, one idea: Ball taking more of Minnesota's shots with Edwards out, Gobert on the glass, and Golden State's two guards scoring. At the Kalshi asks they cost 46.9% together and pay 2.13x. $100 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.

4 legs, one idea: Houston's other three scorers picking up Sengun's shots, with Kuzma still moving the ball for Milwaukee. At the Kalshi asks they cost 47.8% together and pay 2.09x. $100 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.

4 legs, one idea: Toronto's two main scorers carrying the load with Leonard out for weeks. At the Kalshi asks they cost 48.3% together and pay 2.07x. $100 of real money on Kalshi, like every call I make.