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Football

NFL game markets

Kalshi lists a YES contract for each team in each game. It pays $1 if that team wins and $0 if it doesn't, so the price in cents reads roughly as the market's win probability.

GuidesKXNFLGAME checked Sep 19, 2026

Season: Weekly slates from September through the Super Bowl in February.

Live from Kalshi

Open NFL markets

YES prices in cents from Kalshi's public data. Only markets that close after right now are shown, grouped by game.

Loading from Kalshi

Loading open markets from Kalshi

BidThe most a buyer will pay right now. Selling now gets you this.
AskThe least a seller will take. Buying now costs this.
LastThe price of the most recent trade.
SpreadAsk minus bid. Amber at 10¢ or more, where the gap eats most edges.

Source: Kalshi public market data, series KXNFLGAME, checked for this page on Sep 19, 2026. Prices can be a few seconds old. They are market prices, not our picks and not a recommendation. PM Countdown isn't affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi.

Previews

Every NFL game we have written up

62 previews, Sep 21 to Oct 19. Records, the injury report, the season series and the price at the time we read it.

MonSep 211 game

ThuSep 241 game

SunSep 2714 games

MonSep 281 game

ThuOct 11 game

SunOct 414 games

MonOct 51 game

ThuOct 81 game

SunOct 1113 games

MonOct 121 game

ThuOct 151 game

SunOct 1812 games

MonOct 191 game

Method, not picks

How we approach NFL

What we look at before we write a plan. Every plan still has three lines: the buy price, the sell target and the hold rule.

  1. Price the game before you look

    We write our own win probability from injuries, rest and matchups first. Looking at the market price first anchors you to it.

  2. Wait for the late-week injury report

    A quarterback's status moves an NFL price more than anything else. We don't post a plan while the starter is a question mark.

  3. Set the sell target before kickoff

    Prices jump on every score. A resting sell order at your target can fill mid-game while you're watching, not deciding.

  4. One slate, a few units

    Sunday offers a dozen games. Two positions in the same game or the same division are one risk, not two, so we size them together.

Before you trade

What to check first

  • Inactives land 90 minutes before kickoff. That is the last free information of the week.
  • The final injury report is due Friday 4pm ET. A Thursday game moves it to Wednesday.
  • Treat Questionable as a coin flip. The NFL deleted Probable in 2016 and publishes no percentages.
  • Check the wind. Passing EPA per play falls from +0.037 in light wind to −0.048 above 25mph.
  • Price home field near 1.5 points, not 3. Home teams have won 53.2% over five seasons.
  • 55 minutes of play locks your result in, even if the game is then abandoned.
  • A postponement beyond 48 hours pays the last fair price, not a refund.

Every market on Kalshi has its own rules page. When our checklist and the rules disagree, the rules win.

How this market settles

Football contracts on Kalshi

Result locks at55 minutes of play
OvertimeCounts
Delay over 48 hoursLast fair price

Read from Kalshi's filed contract terms for football. The one-line summary on a market page is not the contract; the terms are. Rules vary by series, so check the market you are actually trading.

Basics

How NFL markets work

One contract

One YES per outcome

Each side gets its own YES contract. It pays $1.00 if that outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't.

Probability

Price reads as a chance

A 22¢ YES price means the market puts it near 22%. What matters is the gap between that and your own estimate.

Spread

Bid, ask and the gap

You buy at the ask and sell at the bid. The gap between them is a cost you pay every time you go in and out.

Fees

Fees move break-even

Kalshi's taker fee is 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent. Resting orders on many markets pay a lower maker rate. Fee schedule

Trade Smart path

Related lessons

All lessons
Lesson 02Cash out on purposeWrite the buy price, the sell target and the hold rule before the event starts.Lesson 03Kalshi prices and feesWhy 22¢ reads as about 22%, and how the spread and fees move your break-even.Lesson 01Bankroll and unitsSize every position from money you could lose without touching rent. One unit is 1 to 2% of it.

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21+Only risk what you can afford to lose. Set a money limit before you start, take profits on purpose and stop when you hit your limit. Not financial or betting advice. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET.

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