Desk column · College football · NFL · Bitcoin 15 min · Sept 26 and 27
67 legs, 66 hits: the unders parlay we cashed before the miss
Fifty-four college football unders, twelve NFL unders and one Bitcoin window, emailed to members before kickoff: why the shootouts were left off, why it was sold on Sunday, and the one leg that would have sunk it.
The short version
66 of 67 legs hit. $50.19 bought a ticket the market priced at about 0.9% to hit, and it was sold for $2,426.40 (+4,734%) in the fourth quarter of Seahawks at Commanders. That game went over 61.5 with 2:51 left, so holding to the end would have paid $0. A second copy of the same 67 legs that was held did exactly that.
PM Countdown Desk Exclusive Insider pick
Cost
$50.19
67 legs, all or nothing
Cashed out
$2,426.40
+4,734% on the cost
If held
$0.00
one leg missed after the sale
Legs
66 of 67
Seahawks vs Commanders missed
The market's price
0.9%
about 1 in 108, all 67 together
The 67 legs
Every leg is No on a game total, so every leg wins when the game stays under its line. One Bitcoin window, fifty-four college games on Saturday and twelve NFL games on Sunday.
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Leg 1 · BTCHit
Bitcoin 15 min
Below $84,118.48
Final: $84,104.04
Saturday's 9:15 to 9:30 AM PT window closed at $84,104.04, $14.44 under the target. The first leg to settle.
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Leg 2 · NCAAFHit
Air Force vs Nevada
Under 71.5 points
Final: 69 (36-33, 2OT)
Double overtime. Air Force won it 36-33 before the total could reach 72.
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Leg 3 · NCAAFHit
Appalachian St. vs NC St.
Under 76.5 points
Final: 72 (31-41)
4.5 points under the line.
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Leg 4 · NCAAFHit
Arizona vs Washington St.
Under 71.5 points
Final: 58 (34-24)
13.5 points under the line.
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Leg 5 · NCAAFHit
Ball St. vs Kent St.
Under 72.5 points
Final: 39 (13-26)
33.5 points under the line.
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Leg 6 · NCAAFHit
Boise St. vs Western Michigan
Under 69.5 points
Final: 39 (32-7)
30.5 points under the line.
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Leg 7 · NCAAFHit
Bucknell vs Pittsburgh
Under 80.5 points
Final: 59 (0-59)
21.5 points under the line.
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Leg 8 · NCAAFHit
Central Arkansas vs Florida St.
Under 80.5 points
Final: 41 (7-34)
39.5 points under the line.
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Leg 9 · NCAAFHit
Central Michigan vs Miami (FL)
Under 76.5 points
Final: 55 (3-52)
21.5 points under the line.
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Leg 10 · NCAAFHit
Colorado vs Baylor
Under 74.5 points
Final: 36 (13-23)
38.5 points under the line.
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Leg 11 · NCAAFHit
Delaware vs Virginia
Under 77.5 points
Final: 45 (3-42)
32.5 points under the line.
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Leg 12 · NCAAFHit
Florida Atlantic vs Louisiana-Monroe
Under 79.5 points
Final: 62 (45-17)
17.5 points under the line.
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Leg 13 · NCAAFHit
Gardner-Webb vs Marshall
Under 73.5 points
Final: 71 (35-36)
71 points against 73.5, a one-point Marshall win.
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Leg 14 · NCAAFHit
Georgia Tech vs Stanford
Under 71.5 points
Final: 61 (27-34)
10.5 points under the line.
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Leg 15 · NCAAFHit
Hawai'i vs Wyoming
Under 68.5 points
Final: 37 (10-27)
31.5 points under the line.
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Leg 16 · NCAAFHit
Houston vs Georgia Southern
Under 76.5 points
Final: 70 (42-28)
70 points against 76.5.
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Leg 17 · NCAAFHit
Illinois vs Ohio St.
Under 76.5 points
Final: 61 (19-42)
15.5 points under the line.
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Leg 18 · NCAAFHit
James Madison vs Old Dominion
Under 73.5 points
Final: 66 (46-20)
7.5 points under the line.
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Leg 19 · NCAAFHit
Kansas St. vs Cincinnati
Under 73.5 points
Final: 57 (26-31)
16.5 points under the line.
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Leg 20 · NCAAFHit
Kennesaw St. vs Arkansas St.
Under 77.5 points
Final: 31 (14-17)
46.5 points under the line.
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Leg 21 · NCAAFHit
Lindenwood vs Eastern Michigan
Under 72.5 points
Final: 32 (3-29)
40.5 points under the line.
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Leg 22 · NCAAFHit
Louisiana vs Charlotte
Under 73.5 points
Final: 41 (34-7)
32.5 points under the line.
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Leg 23 · NCAAFHit
Mercyhurst vs Western Kentucky
Under 76.5 points
Final: 59 (7-52)
17.5 points under the line.
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Leg 24 · NCAAFHit
Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville St.
Under 75.5 points
Final: 36 (13-23)
39.5 points under the line.
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Leg 25 · NCAAFHit
Missouri St. vs SMU
Under 81.5 points
Final: 58 (24-34)
23.5 points under the line.
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Leg 26 · NCAAFHit
Nebraska vs Michigan St.
Under 73.5 points
Final: 44 (31-13)
29.5 points under the line.
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Leg 27 · NCAAFHit
New Haven vs Merrimack
Under 66.5 points
Final: 27 (10-17)
39.5 points under the line.
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Leg 28 · NCAAFHit
New Mexico vs New Mexico St.
Under 73.5 points
Final: 60 (42-18)
13.5 points under the line.
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Leg 29 · NCAAFHit
Northern Illinois vs Georgia St.
Under 76.5 points
Final: 49 (14-35)
27.5 points under the line.
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Leg 30 · NCAAFHit
Notre Dame vs Purdue
Under 78.5 points
Final: 59 (49-10)
19.5 points under the line.
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Leg 31 · NCAAFHit
Oklahoma vs Georgia
Under 69.5 points
Final: 54 (13-41)
15.5 points under the line.
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Leg 32 · NCAAFHit
Ole Miss vs Florida
Under 80.5 points
Final: 80 (28-52)
The closest leg on the ticket: 80 points against an 80.5 line.
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Leg 33 · NCAAFHit
Oregon St. vs UTEP
Under 76.5 points
Final: 40 (33-7)
36.5 points under the line.
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Leg 34 · NCAAFHit
Oregon vs USC
Under 85.5 points
Final: 68 (41-27)
The highest line on the ticket, 85.5. It finished at 68.
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Leg 35 · NCAAFHit
Sam Houston vs Texas Tech
Under 77.5 points
Final: 63 (14-49)
14.5 points under the line.
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Leg 36 · NCAAFHit
San Diego St. vs Toledo
Under 70.5 points
Final: 57 (16-41)
13.5 points under the line.
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Leg 37 · NCAAFHit
South Alabama vs Kentucky
Under 76.5 points
Final: 66 (21-45)
10.5 points under the line.
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Leg 38 · NCAAFHit
South Carolina vs Alabama
Under 73.5 points
Final: 67 (18-49)
6.5 points under the line.
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Leg 39 · NCAAFHit
South Florida vs Bowling Green
Under 75.5 points
Final: 20 (14-6)
55.5 points under the line.
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Leg 40 · NCAAFHit
Southern Miss vs Tulane
Under 76.5 points
Final: 45 (21-24)
31.5 points under the line.
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Leg 41 · NCAAFHit
Stonehill vs Ohio
Under 73.5 points
Final: 42 (7-35)
31.5 points under the line.
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Leg 42 · NCAAFHit
TCU vs UCF
Under 73.5 points
Final: 34 (13-21)
39.5 points under the line.
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Leg 43 · NCAAFHit
Texas A&M vs LSU
Under 75.5 points
Final: 41 (6-35)
34.5 points under the line.
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Leg 44 · NCAAFHit
Texas vs Tennessee
Under 78.5 points
Final: 37 (20-17)
41.5 points under the line.
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Leg 45 · NCAAFHit
Troy vs Utah St.
Under 76.5 points
Final: 31 (10-21)
45.5 points under the line.
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Leg 46 · NCAAFHit
Tulsa vs Arkansas
Under 74.5 points
Final: 40 (6-34)
34.5 points under the line.
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Leg 47 · NCAAFHit
UCLA vs Maryland
Under 76.5 points
Final: 57 (54-3)
19.5 points under the line.
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Leg 48 · NCAAFHit
UConn vs Miami (OH)
Under 70.5 points
Final: 45 (21-24)
25.5 points under the line.
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Leg 49 · NCAAFHit
UMass vs Sacramento St.
Under 73.5 points
Final: 41 (35-6)
32.5 points under the line.
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Leg 50 · NCAAFHit
UNLV vs Akron
Under 76.5 points
Final: 48 (38-10)
28.5 points under the line.
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Leg 51 · NCAAFHit
Utah vs Iowa St.
Under 71.5 points
Final: 48 (31-17)
23.5 points under the line.
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Leg 52 · NCAAFHit
Vanderbilt vs Auburn
Under 74.5 points
Final: 36 (15-21)
38.5 points under the line.
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Leg 53 · NCAAFHit
Virginia Tech vs Boston College
Under 75.5 points
Final: 35 (21-14)
40.5 points under the line.
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Leg 54 · NCAAFHit
Wake Forest vs Louisville
Under 80.5 points
Final: 57 (30-27)
23.5 points under the line.
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Leg 55 · NCAAFHit
William & Mary vs Duke
Under 84.5 points
Final: 69 (7-62)
15.5 points under the line.
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Leg 56 · NFLHit
Cardinals vs 49ers
Under 68.5 points
Final: 66 (30-36)
66 points against 68.5, the closest NFL leg that hit.
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Leg 57 · NFLHit
Ravens vs Cowboys
Under 73.5 points
Final: 65 (34-31)
The ticket's highest NFL line, 73.5, and one of the games that felt risky on Sunday. It finished at 65.
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Leg 58 · NFLHit
Panthers vs Browns
Under 61.5 points
Final: 39 (18-21)
22.5 points under the line.
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Leg 59 · NFLHit
Bengals vs Steelers
Under 64.5 points
Final: 57 (27-30)
7.5 points under the line.
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Leg 60 · NFLHit
Texans vs Colts
Under 66.5 points
Final: 36 (17-19)
30.5 points under the line.
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Leg 61 · NFLHit
Chargers vs Bills
Under 71.5 points
Final: 40 (16-24)
31.5 points under the line.
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Leg 62 · NFLHit
Rams vs Broncos
Under 66.5 points
Final: 56 (26-30)
The last game on the ticket, kicked off at 5:20 PM PT, hours after the sale.
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Leg 63 · NFLHit
Raiders vs Saints
Under 65.5 points
Final: 62 (35-27)
62 points against 65.5.
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Leg 64 · NFLHit
Patriots vs Jaguars
Under 65.5 points
Final: 41 (6-35)
24.5 points under the line.
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Leg 65 · NFLHit
Jets vs Lions
Under 69.5 points
Final: 55 (24-31)
14.5 points under the line.
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Leg 66 · NFLMiss
Seahawks vs Commanders
Under 61.5 points
Final: 64 (31-33)
The one miss. 57 points with 3:57 left after Washington's pick-six; Seattle's touchdown at 2:51 made it 64.
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Leg 67 · NFLHit
Titans vs Giants
Under 64.5 points
Final: 19 (7-12)
45.5 points under the line.
Every leg, closest call first
Room is how far each game finished under its line, also as a share of the line. The one miss sits at the top: it finished over.
| Leg | Needed | Final | Room | Share of line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks vs Commanders | Under 61.5 points | 64 (31-33) | missed by 2.5 points | -4.1% |
| Bitcoin 15 min | Below $84,118.48 | $84,104.04 | $14.44 | 0.02% |
| Ole Miss vs Florida | Under 80.5 points | 80 (28-52) | 0.5 points | 0.62% |
| Gardner-Webb vs Marshall | Under 73.5 points | 71 (35-36) | 2.5 points | 3.4% |
| Air Force vs Nevada | Under 71.5 points | 69 (36-33, 2OT) | 2.5 points | 3.5% |
| Cardinals vs 49ers | Under 68.5 points | 66 (30-36) | 2.5 points | 3.6% |
| Raiders vs Saints | Under 65.5 points | 62 (35-27) | 3.5 points | 5.3% |
| Appalachian St. vs NC St. | Under 76.5 points | 72 (31-41) | 4.5 points | 5.9% |
| Houston vs Georgia Southern | Under 76.5 points | 70 (42-28) | 6.5 points | 8.5% |
| South Carolina vs Alabama | Under 73.5 points | 67 (18-49) | 6.5 points | 8.8% |
| James Madison vs Old Dominion | Under 73.5 points | 66 (46-20) | 7.5 points | 10.2% |
| Ravens vs Cowboys | Under 73.5 points | 65 (34-31) | 8.5 points | 11.6% |
| Bengals vs Steelers | Under 64.5 points | 57 (27-30) | 7.5 points | 11.6% |
| South Alabama vs Kentucky | Under 76.5 points | 66 (21-45) | 10.5 points | 13.7% |
| Georgia Tech vs Stanford | Under 71.5 points | 61 (27-34) | 10.5 points | 14.7% |
| Rams vs Broncos | Under 66.5 points | 56 (26-30) | 10.5 points | 15.8% |
| William & Mary vs Duke | Under 84.5 points | 69 (7-62) | 15.5 points | 18.3% |
| New Mexico vs New Mexico St. | Under 73.5 points | 60 (42-18) | 13.5 points | 18.4% |
| Sam Houston vs Texas Tech | Under 77.5 points | 63 (14-49) | 14.5 points | 18.7% |
| Arizona vs Washington St. | Under 71.5 points | 58 (34-24) | 13.5 points | 18.9% |
| San Diego St. vs Toledo | Under 70.5 points | 57 (16-41) | 13.5 points | 19.1% |
| Illinois vs Ohio St. | Under 76.5 points | 61 (19-42) | 15.5 points | 20.3% |
| Oregon vs USC | Under 85.5 points | 68 (41-27) | 17.5 points | 20.5% |
| Jets vs Lions | Under 69.5 points | 55 (24-31) | 14.5 points | 20.9% |
| Florida Atlantic vs Louisiana-Monroe | Under 79.5 points | 62 (45-17) | 17.5 points | 22.0% |
| Oklahoma vs Georgia | Under 69.5 points | 54 (13-41) | 15.5 points | 22.3% |
| Kansas St. vs Cincinnati | Under 73.5 points | 57 (26-31) | 16.5 points | 22.4% |
| Mercyhurst vs Western Kentucky | Under 76.5 points | 59 (7-52) | 17.5 points | 22.9% |
| Notre Dame vs Purdue | Under 78.5 points | 59 (49-10) | 19.5 points | 24.8% |
| UCLA vs Maryland | Under 76.5 points | 57 (54-3) | 19.5 points | 25.5% |
| Bucknell vs Pittsburgh | Under 80.5 points | 59 (0-59) | 21.5 points | 26.7% |
| Central Michigan vs Miami (FL) | Under 76.5 points | 55 (3-52) | 21.5 points | 28.1% |
| Missouri St. vs SMU | Under 81.5 points | 58 (24-34) | 23.5 points | 28.8% |
| Wake Forest vs Louisville | Under 80.5 points | 57 (30-27) | 23.5 points | 29.2% |
| Utah vs Iowa St. | Under 71.5 points | 48 (31-17) | 23.5 points | 32.9% |
| Northern Illinois vs Georgia St. | Under 76.5 points | 49 (14-35) | 27.5 points | 35.9% |
| UConn vs Miami (OH) | Under 70.5 points | 45 (21-24) | 25.5 points | 36.2% |
| Panthers vs Browns | Under 61.5 points | 39 (18-21) | 22.5 points | 36.6% |
| UNLV vs Akron | Under 76.5 points | 48 (38-10) | 28.5 points | 37.3% |
| Patriots vs Jaguars | Under 65.5 points | 41 (6-35) | 24.5 points | 37.4% |
| Nebraska vs Michigan St. | Under 73.5 points | 44 (31-13) | 29.5 points | 40.1% |
| Southern Miss vs Tulane | Under 76.5 points | 45 (21-24) | 31.5 points | 41.2% |
| Delaware vs Virginia | Under 77.5 points | 45 (3-42) | 32.5 points | 41.9% |
| Stonehill vs Ohio | Under 73.5 points | 42 (7-35) | 31.5 points | 42.9% |
| Boise St. vs Western Michigan | Under 69.5 points | 39 (32-7) | 30.5 points | 43.9% |
| Chargers vs Bills | Under 71.5 points | 40 (16-24) | 31.5 points | 44.1% |
| Louisiana vs Charlotte | Under 73.5 points | 41 (34-7) | 32.5 points | 44.2% |
| UMass vs Sacramento St. | Under 73.5 points | 41 (35-6) | 32.5 points | 44.2% |
| Texas A&M vs LSU | Under 75.5 points | 41 (6-35) | 34.5 points | 45.7% |
| Texans vs Colts | Under 66.5 points | 36 (17-19) | 30.5 points | 45.9% |
| Hawai'i vs Wyoming | Under 68.5 points | 37 (10-27) | 31.5 points | 46.0% |
| Ball St. vs Kent St. | Under 72.5 points | 39 (13-26) | 33.5 points | 46.2% |
| Tulsa vs Arkansas | Under 74.5 points | 40 (6-34) | 34.5 points | 46.3% |
| Oregon St. vs UTEP | Under 76.5 points | 40 (33-7) | 36.5 points | 47.7% |
| Central Arkansas vs Florida St. | Under 80.5 points | 41 (7-34) | 39.5 points | 49.1% |
| Colorado vs Baylor | Under 74.5 points | 36 (13-23) | 38.5 points | 51.7% |
| Vanderbilt vs Auburn | Under 74.5 points | 36 (15-21) | 38.5 points | 51.7% |
| Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville St. | Under 75.5 points | 36 (13-23) | 39.5 points | 52.3% |
| Texas vs Tennessee | Under 78.5 points | 37 (20-17) | 41.5 points | 52.9% |
| Virginia Tech vs Boston College | Under 75.5 points | 35 (21-14) | 40.5 points | 53.6% |
| TCU vs UCF | Under 73.5 points | 34 (13-21) | 39.5 points | 53.7% |
| Lindenwood vs Eastern Michigan | Under 72.5 points | 32 (3-29) | 40.5 points | 55.9% |
| New Haven vs Merrimack | Under 66.5 points | 27 (10-17) | 39.5 points | 59.4% |
| Troy vs Utah St. | Under 76.5 points | 31 (10-21) | 45.5 points | 59.5% |
| Kennesaw St. vs Arkansas St. | Under 77.5 points | 31 (14-17) | 46.5 points | 60.0% |
| Titans vs Giants | Under 64.5 points | 19 (7-12) | 45.5 points | 70.5% |
| South Florida vs Bowling Green | Under 75.5 points | 20 (14-6) | 55.5 points | 73.5% |
What the price said
At $50.19 for a $5,428.20 maximum, the combo was priced at about 0.9%: roughly a 1 in 108 chance that all 67 legs hit.
Read as 67 independent legs, that is about 93% a leg. Every leg is a different game, so the legs are close to independent. It is still the market's joint price read two ways, not a model of each leg.
Why the shootouts were left off
An unders ticket is a bet that nothing turns into a shootout. The desk built this one by leaving off the games that looked like one: two quarterbacks who throw a lot, receivers who turn short passes into long ones, and defenses that cannot get off the field. Those are the games where a total above 70 stops being unusual.
Thirteen other college games that Saturday reached 70 points or more. None of them were on the ticket. Most had exactly that profile: Tennessee Tech's Jax Leatherwood threw for 427 yards at Wofford, both quarterbacks in Drake at Davidson passed for more than 340, and Colorado State at UTSA reached 104 points with both passers over 300. A few were the other kind of over, a heavy favorite putting up 63 against an overmatched opponent.
The ones that stayed on got close. Ole Miss at Florida finished at 80 against an 80.5 line, Air Force and Nevada needed double overtime to stop at 69 against 71.5, and Gardner-Webb at Marshall ended at 71 against 73.5.
| Game | Final | Total | Leading passers (yards) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado State Rams at UTSA Roadrunners | 45-59 | 104 | K'saan Farrar 344, Owen McCown 303 |
| Western Carolina Catamounts at East Tennessee State Buccaneers | 31-58 | 89 | Lex Thomas 163, Mason Mims 220 |
| Portland State Vikings at Weber State Wildcats | 44-41 | 85 | John-Keawe Sagapolutele 161, Nate Dahle 338 |
| Montana Grizzlies at UC Davis Aggies | 62-22 | 84 | Keali'i Ah Yat 241, Treynor Cleeland 194 |
| Drake Bulldogs at Davidson Wildcats | 51-32 | 83 | Riley Warzynski 371, Casey Bullock 345 |
| Texas Southern Tigers at Alcorn State Braves | 40-43 (OT) | 83 | Cam'Ron McCoy 319, Jaylon Tolbert 332 |
| Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles at Wofford Terriers | 42-38 | 80 | Jax Leatherwood 427, Ethan Drumm 304 |
| Houston Christian Huskies at North Texas Mean Green | 14-63 | 77 | Cutter Stewart 123, Tayven Jackson 270 |
| North Dakota Fighting Hawks at Indiana State Sycamores | 42-35 | 77 | Jerry Kaminski 381, Brady Allen 270 |
| Northeastern State RiverHawks at Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 14-63 | 77 | Donnie Smith 326, Gavin Rutherford 299 |
| South Dakota Coyotes at Youngstown State Penguins | 28-47 | 75 | Austyn Modrzewski 147, Beau Brungard 159 |
| Incarnate Word Cardinals at Texas State Bobcats | 10-63 | 73 | Emmett Brown 242, Brad Jackson 244 |
| SE Louisiana Lions at Northwestern State Demons | 52-21 | 73 | Kyle Lowe 163, Zach Wilcke 254 |
The one that missed: Seahawks at Commanders
The line was 61.5, tied with Panthers at Browns for the lowest NFL total on the ticket. Washington led 24-10 in the third quarter. Seattle tied it at 24 early in the fourth, a Washington field goal made it 51 total with 4:34 left, and a 50-yard pick-six at 3:57 took it to 57 with the extra point missed.
That left 4.5 points of room with under four minutes to play. Cooper Kupp's 7-yard touchdown catch at 2:51 made it 63, and the kick made it 64. The ticket had already been sold.
| Quarter | Clock | Team | Play | Score | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 9:08 | WSH | Rachaad White 6 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Drew Stevens Kick) | SEA 0, WSH 7 | 7 |
| Q2 | 13:27 | SEA | Jaxon Smith-Njigba 1 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick) | SEA 7, WSH 7 | 14 |
| Q2 | 6:47 | WSH | Treylon Burks 11 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Drew Stevens Kick) | SEA 7, WSH 14 | 21 |
| Q2 | 0:52 | SEA | Jason Myers 57 Yd Field Goal | SEA 10, WSH 14 | 24 |
| Q2 | 0:00 | WSH | Drew Stevens 57 Yd Field Goal | SEA 10, WSH 17 | 27 |
| Q3 | 10:43 | WSH | Terry McLaurin 30 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Drew Stevens Kick) | SEA 10, WSH 24 | 34 |
| Q3 | 6:05 | SEA | Eric Saubert 13 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick) | SEA 17, WSH 24 | 41 |
| Q4 | 11:53 | SEA | Jaxon Smith-Njigba 11 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick) | SEA 24, WSH 24 | 48 |
| Q4 | 4:34 | WSH | Drew Stevens 36 Yd Field Goal | SEA 24, WSH 27 | 51 |
| Q4 | 3:57 | WSH | Kain Medrano 50 Yd Interception Return (Drew Stevens PAT Failed) | SEA 24, WSH 33 | 57 |
| Q4 | 2:51 | SEA | Cooper Kupp 7 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick) | SEA 31, WSH 33 | 64 |
Why it was sold on Sunday, and why members were told
By Saturday night every college leg and the Bitcoin leg had hit. What was left on Sunday was twelve NFL totals, and a few of them felt risky: Seahawks at Commanders, and Ravens at Cowboys at 73.5, a game one reply under the post called a shootout.
When Seahawks at Commanders reached the fourth quarter, four NFL legs had not even kicked off: the 1:05 and 1:25 PM PT games and Rams at Broncos that evening. The desk sold the ticket in that fourth quarter, before the total crossed 61.5, and alerted members that it had.
Every one of those four later games stayed under. It did not matter: the Seattle game went over, and a ticket that needs all 67 pays nothing when one misses.
The copy that rode
The Sep 26 post on Kalshi shows a second copy of the same 67 legs, $50.19 in, that was held. It paid $0.00 when Seahawks at Commanders went over. Same picks, same 66 hits. The only difference between $2,426.40 and nothing was the sale.
The cash-out, and what holding would have paid
The ticket was sold for $2,426.40 before it settled. That locked in $2,376.21 on $50.19, +4,734%.
Held to the end it would have paid $0.00: Seahawks vs Commanders missed, and a combo that needs every leg pays nothing when one does. The $5,428.20 maximum was never in reach.
The sale price is 44.7% of that maximum, roughly what the market gave the legs still open at that moment. Selling took the risk off the table while those legs were live, and this time the risk was real.
Every reply, word for word
All 40 comments on the desk's two Kalshi posts, as of Sep 29, exactly as they were written.
Sep 26 post, after the college legs hit 141 likes · 38 comments
Wtf is this demon 67 parlay
@trixwastaken · Sep 26 · 19 likes
@trixwastaken 67 legs bro 😭🙏🏾
@chemical.robin9889 · Sep 26 · 5 likes
Post before, I’m trynna pay off my car 😭💀
@vbucks7600 · Sep 27 · 14 likes
Are you just betting the games won’t go over the highest amount possible to bet on?
@kevinrams24 · Sep 27 · 7 likes
@kevinrams24 not all the games.. only the ones that didn’t go over 😉
@PMCountdown · Sep 27
You got it brooooo
@wonderful.corgi6833 · Sep 26 · 4 likes
@wonderful.corgi6833 thabks
@PMCountdown · Sep 27
No mames 76 juegos y si te queda mal uno valió pija todo bro
@guilty.gecko5537 · Sep 26 · 4 likes
I had 111 leg parlay n 1 miss. Good job.
@tiny.dragonfly1372 · Sep 27 · 3 likes
Holding?
@clever.opossum5996 · Sep 26 · 2 likes
@clever.opossum5996 I sold some but I am going to make a even crazier parlay for tomorrow with WNBA games
@PMCountdown · Sep 27 · 8 likes
@PMCountdown can you give me the parlay for tmr
@WeUsedToWinning · Sep 27 · 2 likes
This is absolutely amazing…. Lol
@KCFOR3 · Sep 26 · 2 likes
yo
@wholehearted.tiger1535 · Sep 27 · 1 like
Insane bet
@Sumdumfk · Sep 27 · 1 like
Lucky big dog
@scrawny.koala1490 · Sep 27 · 1 like
The key was to make a new parley and remove some of the losers before they settled at market and then pray to Hermes. Sadly I was too chicken to hold like this guy and now I'm a sad boy
@scrawny.koala1490 · Sep 27 · 1 like
@scrawny.koala1490 We’re sad together. I cashed when things were looking shaky
@Roey · Sep 27 · 1 like
Damn I should have tailed you instead!!
@mendels · Sep 27 · 1 like
Got anything for today your my GOAT today
@Drewsy · Sep 27 · 1 like
Following for next week!
@BHunchoFoo · Sep 27 · 1 like
Cowboys ravens finna be a shootout, lot of records on the line. GL
@Degenerate.choices · Sep 27 · 1 like
@Degenerate.choices true
@PMCountdown · Sep 27
The official 67 parley 😭🙏🏽
@disappointed.newt0699 · Sep 27 · 1 like
Niceee! Let's go!!!
@Rexy101 · Sep 27 · 1 like
Holy shit😂😂
@BrokenRubber · Sep 27 · 1 like
This is gonna hit !!!!! lol I liked just to watch sad I didn’t trail bc I would’ve cashed out 😂😂😂
@envious.toad7253 · Sep 27 · 1 like
I’m so geeked for you to hit this bro
@envious.toad7253 · Sep 27 · 1 like
🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
@Goldmine5150 · Sep 27 · 1 like
Insider trading?
@Sumdumfk · Sep 27
Holyyyyyyyyyyy
@TaQuitO · Sep 27
i had cashed out already😭😭
@YunqReese · Sep 27
Sad I cashed my 61 leg early
@Roey · Sep 27
Excuse me?????!!!!😭😭😭😭😭😭😭
@running.tiger4163 · Sep 27
This is hilarious but I don’t love the odds for some of those last nfl games
@huge.girth69 · Sep 27
Yo can you spare me 50 dollars?
@Tokouso4eva · Sep 27
Damn seattle
@Nelsonstuki · Sep 27
Wowwww of course the commanders decided to show up and ruin this one
@kevinrams24 · Sep 28
Sep 27 post, after the cash-out 7 likes · 2 comments
I had the same thing what time u piled out I should have pulled out when I saw they were selling last seconde
@royal.sheep8985 · Sep 27
When u pulled out ?
@royal.sheep8985 · Sep 27
Questions people ask
Did every leg hit?
No. 66 of 67 won. The one miss was Seahawks at Commanders, No on over 61.5, which finished at 64 (31-33) after a touchdown with 2:51 left.
How much did it cost and pay?
It cost $50.19 and was cashed out for $2,426.40, a profit of $2,376.21 (+4,734%). Held to the end it would have paid $0.
When was it cashed out?
During the fourth quarter of Seahawks at Commanders on Sunday, Sept 27, before the total crossed 61.5. The desk alerted members when it sold.
Why weren't the high-scoring college games on it?
The ticket is all unders, so the desk left off games with shootout signs: pass-heavy quarterbacks, big-play receivers and defenses that give up points. Thirteen other games that Saturday reached 70 points; none were on the ticket.
What is a Kalshi combo?
A Kalshi combo bundles several markets into one position that pays only if every leg wins, the way a parlay does. Its price is the market's price for all the legs hitting together.
Was it posted before the games?
It was emailed to PM Countdown members before kickoff. The public Kalshi posts went up on Sept 26, after the college legs hit, and on Sept 27, after the cash-out.
Sources
The Kalshi posts by PMCountdown: Sept 27 (67 markets, cost $50.19, payout $2,426.40, max payout $5,428.20) and Sept 26 (the held copy, cost $50.19, payout $0.00), read 2026-09-29. Final scores from ESPN's college football scoreboards for Sept 26, 2026 (FBS and FCS) and NFL scoreboard for Sept 27, 2026; the Seahawks at Commanders scoring plays from ESPN's game summary; passing yards for the games left off from ESPN box scores; all read 2026-09-29. The Bitcoin leg is Kalshi market KXBTC15M-26SEP261230-30, settled at $84,104.04, from Kalshi's public market data, read 2026-09-29. The Kalshi post.