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The Trade Smart path · 5 lessons · free
Trade small. Cash out on purpose.
The Trade Smart path is a free set of five 5-minute lessons on how to trade prediction markets such as Kalshi: size a bankroll in units, set the sell target before the event, read a price as a probability, set a loss limit, and understand 15-minute Bitcoin windows. Every lesson has a working calculator and a three-question quiz, and every factual claim links to its source. Then take the routine to a live board: every plan on the picks page was written this way, and every grade is public.
Progress is saved on this device only. No account needed.
Learning streak
Best0
Finish a lesson or check in to start. Only learning counts, never trades.
Counts lessons, check-ins and fair-value estimates. Never trades, deposits or clicks. A freeze covers a missed day, and you earn one back every 7 days, up to 2. Saved on this device.
In short
- A prediction-market contract pays $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn't, so a price of 22¢ reads as about a 22% chance.
- Kalshi's taker fee is 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up per order. It is largest at 50¢.
- Our house convention: one unit is 1 to 2% of a bankroll you could lose without touching rent, bills or savings, and no single position gets more than 5%.
- Write the entry, the sell target and the hold rule before the event. A resting sell order fills only when a buyer pays your price.
- Money limits worked better than time limits for the most intense players in Auer and Griffiths (2013). Kalshi offers funding caps and opt-outs.
- A Kalshi 15-minute Bitcoin contract (KXBTC15M) settles on a 60-second average of the CF Benchmarks BRTI over the final minute.
Where it applies: the live BTC desk · every pick, graded · sports markets
The path
Five lessons, in order
Each one has a key idea, a worked example with real math, one tool and a three-question quiz. Finishing the quiz marks the lesson done. Articles 1.1 to 3.3 on the homepage are the longer path around these five; none of them is live yet.
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Lesson 01: Bankroll and units
Your bankroll is money you could lose without touching rent. One unit is 1 to 2% of it, and no single position gets more than 5%.
Tool: Unit and 1/4-Kelly calculator 5 min -
Lesson 02: Taking profits and sell targets
Write the entry, the sell target and the hold rule before the event. How a Kalshi sell order fills, and what happens when it doesn't.
Tool: Trade plan builder 5 min -
Lesson 03: Reading Kalshi prices and fees
22¢ means about 22%. The spread and the fee move your break-even, and an 85¢ contract can only make 15¢.
Tool: Price and fee calculator 5 min -
Lesson 04: Tilt and loss limits
Money limits set in advance work better than willpower. Raising stakes after a loss is the warning sign.
Tool: Set-my-limit worksheet 5 min -
Lesson 05: 15-minute markets
Strike, window and the 60-second settlement average. Why near-50¢ coin flips lose to fees, and why breaks matter.
Tool: Window simulator 5 min
The five lessons cover the trade. After a big win covers what happens to the money once it is out of the market: the tax set-aside, moving it off the exchange, and deciding the next bankroll as a number. Reference pages, not a path, and not advice.
What is a 15-minute contract actually worth? The 1900 math behind the odds turns the distance to the line, the typical move and the time left into a chance, and shows where that math breaks.
Trading with software? Kalshi API setup for automated trading shows every click with a real Kalshi screenshot: a trade-only API key, the location check, and cash on the exchange your markets trade on.
Trade planner
Plan it before you place it
Put in the buy price, the sell target and the stake. The planner shows the payout if the target fills, the payout if it settles, the most you can lose, the break-even sell and how the price compares with your own fair value. It starts on Jay's UFC 331 numbers with an example fair value.
The planner is a calculator, not a recommendation. The default 30% fair value is an example for teaching, not a rating of the fight.
Glossary
Words on the desk
Every term the lessons use, in one place, with a link to the lesson that explains it.
- Ask
- The lowest price a seller will take right now. You pay it when you buy immediately. Lesson
- Bankroll
- Money set aside for trading that you could lose without touching rent, bills or savings. Lesson
- Bid
- The highest price a buyer will pay right now. You get it when you sell immediately. Lesson
- Break-even sell
- The lowest sell price that returns your full cost after both fees. For 100 contracts bought at 22¢, it's 25¢. Lesson
- BRTI
- The CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index. Kalshi's 15-minute BTC contracts settle on a 60-second average of it. Lesson
- Cashout
- Selling a contract before settlement. On our record it counts only if Kalshi's trade history shows the target traded. Lesson
- Contract
- A YES or NO position that settles at $1 if it's right and $0 if it's wrong. Lesson
- Digital option
- A contract that pays a fixed amount if the price finishes above a line and nothing otherwise. Every Kalshi up-or-down contract is one. Lesson
- Fair value
- Your own estimate of the chance, written before you look at the price. A trade needs your number above the price. Lesson
- Fat tails
- Big, sudden price moves that happen far more often than a bell curve allows. The main reason a pricing formula can be wrong. Lesson
- Fee
- Kalshi's taker fee: 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent per order. It is largest at 50¢, 1.75¢ a contract. Lesson
- Funding cap
- A personal deposit limit you set in Kalshi. Set it to your monthly loss limit. Lesson
- Hold rule
- The line in your plan that says what you do if the sell target never trades. Usually: hold to settlement. Lesson
- Implied probability
- A Kalshi price read as a chance: a contract pays $1, so 22¢ is about a 22% chance. Lesson
- Kelly, 1/4
- A quarter of the Kelly criterion's suggested size, capped at 5% of bankroll. The only way we teach Kelly. Lesson
- Opt-out
- A voluntary break from trading for a period you choose. Kalshi offers them in its Responsible Trading Hub. Lesson
- Resting order
- A limit order that waits on the order book until someone trades against it or you cancel it. Lesson
- Settlement
- When the market resolves and each contract pays $1 or $0. Lesson
- Spread
- Ask minus bid. You pay it every time you go in and out right away. Lesson
- Strike
- The price to beat in a BTC window, set when the window opens. Lesson
- Tilt
- Trading on emotion instead of the plan. Chasing losses is the common form. Lesson
- Unit
- A fixed slice of the bankroll. Our house convention is 1 to 2%. Lesson
- Window
- The 15 minutes a KXBTC15M contract trades. A new one opens every quarter hour. Lesson
About these lessons
How we teach
Every factual claim links to its source. Our own conventions, like the 1 to 2% unit, are labeled as ours. How we lock and grade trades
Reference
Not a lesson, so it sits outside the path: the rules that decide whether a Kalshi sign-up bonus is actually yours to keep. How the Kalshi referral bonus works. Also outside the path, on the markets side: Kalshi perps explained: funding and leverage, why bitcoin moves differently when US stocks are closed, and what martingale did on every Kalshi Bitcoin 15-minute window.
Lessons are education, not betting or financial advice. Only risk what you can afford to lose. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET. Responsible gambling guide