NFL Week 5 · Sun, Oct 11, 1:05 PM PT
The Chargers are 0-4 for the first time since 2017, and on Sunday they host a Denver team that went 14-3 last year but has scored 14 points or fewer in two of four games. Rashawn Slater is out, Ladd McConkey's foot is a question, and Denver may play without Pat Surtain II. The Broncos are 3.5-point road favorites at SoFi. The posted line is DEN -3.5 with a total of 42.5, and the contract below prices the win outright.
Kickoff
1:05 PM PT
4:05 PM ET, Sun, Oct 11
Stadium
SoFi Stadium
Inglewood
On TV
CBS
national window
Kalshi
Listed
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Denver Broncos are 2-2. Los Angeles Chargers are 0-4. The posted line has Denver Broncos favoured by 3.5, with a total of 42.5. Kickoff is 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, October 11 at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood.
The storyline. The Chargers are 0-4 for the first time since 2017, and on Sunday they host a Denver team that went 14-3 last year but has scored 14 points or fewer in two of four games. Rashawn Slater is out, Ladd McConkey's foot is a question, and Denver may play without Pat Surtain II. The Broncos are 3.5-point road favorites at SoFi.
Los Angeles lost 26-14 to Arizona, 26-14 to Las Vegas, 24-16 at Buffalo and 30-23 at Seattle. It has scored 16.8 points a game and allowed 26.5, and no opponent has scored fewer than 24. The last time the Chargers opened 0-4, in 2017, they finished 9-7 and missed the playoffs. This is also new ground for Jim Harbaugh: before this season, no team he coached had started 0-2. After Seattle he said, “It was a good fight,” and praised the team’s “Never say die attitude.” (PFR · Chargers Wire via Yahoo · 2026 Chargers season)
In his first year with offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel, Justin Herbert is 71 of 119 for 816 yards, 4 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, and he has been sacked 12 times. The Chargers have turned it over 10 times. In Seattle he had 36 passing yards and two interceptions in the first half, then went 14 of 17 for 153 yards and a touchdown after halftime as Los Angeles outscored the Seahawks 17-10. Pete Prisco ranked the Chargers 27th this week: “Justin Herbert just doesn’t look good in their offense.” (Chargers.com recap · Chargers.com takeaways · CBS Sports · PFR)
Rashawn Slater suffered a high ankle sprain late in the fourth quarter and, per NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, is expected to miss four to six weeks. He missed all of 2025 with a torn patellar tendon. Right tackle Joe Alt left with a neck injury before halftime and rookie Travis Burke replaced him, and guard Trevor Penning left in the fourth quarter with a concussion. Harbaugh on the patched line: “At one point we had four of the rookie linemen in there and they acquitted themselves well.” (ProFootballTalk · Chargers.com · Heavy · DK Network)
The Broncos went 14-3 and earned the AFC’s No. 1 seed last season. Four games into this one they are 2-2, scoring 18.5 points a game, 26th in the league per the Denver Gazette, and Covers has them at a league-low 3.3 first-half points per game. San Francisco held them scoreless through three quarters in a 24-14 loss. Bo Nix is 81 of 135 for 819 yards, 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Sean Payton: “We’ve got to figure it out fast.” Asked whether he would take play-calling back from coordinator Davis Webb, he said, “It’s tough to discuss any of that right now.” (Denver Gazette · Covers · theScore · StatMuse · CBS Colorado)
Denver traded its 2026 first-round pick (No. 30), a third and a fourth to Miami in March for Jaylen Waddle and a fourth. He leads the Broncos with 16 catches for 185 yards on 26 targets, 138 of those yards coming in Week 2 against Jacksonville. Courtland Sutton, who had 118 yards in last year’s game at SoFi, has 9 catches for 86 yards on 22 targets this season. (NFL.com · Field Level Media)
Pat Surtain II hurt his ankle on a non-contact play in the final minute of the first half against the 49ers, and ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reported he is expected to miss about two weeks. Fellow corner Riley Moss left with a rib injury. Kris Abrams-Draine (34 snaps) and Jahdae Barron (40) finished the game at corner. Payton: “I thought they came in and did a real good job.” The Broncos have 8 sacks and allow 23.5 points a game. (Denver Gazette · DK Network · PFR)
Denver leads the series 74-58-1. The Chargers swept 2024, then won 23-20 at SoFi on September 21, 2025, when Cameron Dicker made a 43-yard field goal as time expired. The Broncos won the rematch 19-3 in Denver on January 4, 2026, clinching the No. 1 seed. That was their first win over the Chargers since Harbaugh arrived in 2024. (Broncos-Chargers rivalry · Field Level Media · CBS Colorado)
DraftKings has Denver -3.5 with a 42.5 total, and every major book listed by Chargers.com has the same spread. The Chargers are 0-4 against the spread, and the under is 8-2 in their last 10 games, per SI. This is both teams’ second division game: Denver lost 31-10 at Kansas City in Week 1 and the Chargers lost to the Raiders in Week 2. The Broncos host Seattle four days later on Thursday Night Football, while the Chargers visit Kansas City before their Week 7 bye. (SI · Chargers.com · Denverbroncos.com · PFR)
Both quarterbacks are healthy. Statuses below are ESPN’s listings as read the morning of Wednesday, October 7, before the first official practice report of the week; final designations come Friday and inactives 90 minutes before kickoff.
| Player | Status | Injury and what it changes |
|---|---|---|
| Pat Surtain II, DEN CB | Doubtful | Ankle; expected to miss about two weeks, per ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler |
| Pat Bryant, DEN WR | Doubtful | Ankle; 9 catches for 133 yards this season |
| Riley Moss, DEN CB | Questionable | Ribs; could leave Denver without both starting corners |
| Dondrea Tillman, DEN LB | Questionable | Hamstring |
| Jonah Coleman, DEN RB | Injured reserve | Ankle; eligible to return Oct 25 |
| Rashawn Slater, LAC OT | Out | High ankle sprain; four to six weeks, per Ian Rapoport |
| Joe Alt, LAC OT | Questionable | Neck; left Week 4 before halftime |
| Trevor Penning, LAC G | Questionable | Concussion |
| Kayode Awosika, LAC G | Questionable | Lower leg |
| Ladd McConkey, LAC WR | Questionable | Foot; 24 snaps and no catches in Week 4; Harbaugh calls it week to week |
| Brenen Thompson, LAC WR | Questionable | Quadriceps |
| Charlie Kolar, LAC TE | Questionable | Forearm surgery; David Njoku is on injured reserve |
| Derwin James Jr., LAC S | Questionable | Hamstring; missed Week 4 |
| Donte Jackson, LAC CB | Questionable | Hamstring; seven snaps in Week 4 |
| Dalvin Tomlinson, LAC DT | Questionable | Hamstring |
For props, the Chargers’ side is the bigger story. With Slater out and Alt unsure, Herbert could be throwing behind two backup tackles, and with McConkey limited the targets have gone to Tre’ Harris (13 catches, 209 yards) and Oronde Gadsden (5 catches on 8 targets in Week 4). Kalshi had no Chargers receiving markets listed when we checked. On Denver’s side, Bryant’s absence opens snaps for Marvin Mims Jr. and Troy Franklin, and a secondary without Surtain is the case for Herbert’s passing line. Sources: ProFootballTalk, Chargers.com, Heavy, Denver Gazette, DK Network, SI.
Season lines for Weeks 1-4 from ESPN box scores, read October 7, 2026. Names link to each player’s ESPN page.
Justin Herbert, LAC QB: 71 of 119, 816 yards, 4 TD, 6 INT; 18 runs for 88 yards
Passing yards by week: 209, 192, 226, 189. He has gone over 200 twice in four games, and Kalshi’s 200-plus price sat near even money. Watch whether the Chargers leave a back or tight end in to help the rookie tackles, which costs him a receiver.
Omarion Hampton, LAC RB: 59 carries, 238 yards; 4 catches, 29 yards
Rushing yards by week: 43, 94, 56, 45, with a 2-yard touchdown in Seattle. Keaton Mitchell (27 carries, 124 yards, 9 catches) has been getting more of the work lately, with 10 carries to Hampton’s 9 in Week 4.
Tre’ Harris, LAC WR: 13 catches, 209 yards on 21 targets
Weeks 3 and 4: 6 for 76, then 3 for 60. The Chargers’ leading receiver by yards, and the first name up if McConkey sits.
Bo Nix, DEN QB: 81 of 135, 819 yards, 5 TD, 3 INT; 14 runs for 25 yards
Passing yards by week: 131, 288, 186, 214. He threw 42 times in San Francisco. The Chargers allow 26.5 points a game, so this is a chance for Denver’s offense to get going against a defense that forced five turnovers in Buffalo.
Jaylen Waddle, DEN WR: 16 catches, 185 yards on 26 targets
Receiving yards by week: 2, 138, 10, 35, with a touchdown against the 49ers. With Bryant doubtful, his target count is the number to watch.
RJ Harvey, DEN RB: 20 catches, 132 yards on 21 targets; 12 carries, 49 yards
Receiving yards in the three games he played: 23, 41, 68 (he was not in the Week 2 box score). His Week 4 line was 10 catches on 10 targets, so he is now Nix’s safety valve out of the backfield.
The Chargers have turned it over 10 times, allowed 12 sacks and could start two backup tackles. Denver beat them 19-3 the last time they met, the market has them as clear favorites at 3.5 points, and the Chargers have not covered a spread this season.
Denver also has the more reliable defense of the two, allowing 23.5 points a game to the Chargers’ 26.5.
Denver’s offense averages 3.3 first-half points per game, per Covers, and Payton has questioned it publicly. The Broncos may be without Surtain and Moss at corner, and Herbert went 14 of 17 after halftime in Seattle. The Chargers outgained the Seahawks 301-286 and forced five turnovers in Buffalo, and they are at home, needing a win.
PFR · Covers · SI · FOX Sports · Chargers.com. These are the arguments each side’s backers make, not a prediction.
| Going in | DEN Denver BroncosDEN | LAC Los Angeles ChargersLAC |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 0-4 |
| Side | On the road | At home |
| The posted line | −3.5 | +3.5 |
| Implied points computed | 23 | 19.5 |
Records, venue, spread and total from the ESPN scoreboard, read 2026-10-05.1 Implied points is half the total moved half the spread, which is arithmetic on the two numbers above, not a projection.
The posted line has Denver Broncos favoured by 3.5 on the road, with a total of 42.5. A spread is the market's estimate of the margin, not a result; the Kalshi contract below prices the win outright.
The two venue prices sit at the top of this page and are read live when it loads. A contract settles at $1.00 if that team wins and $0 if it loses, so a price in cents is that market’s implied chance of the win. Prices are the venues’, not our picks, and the two rarely agree to the cent.
A spread and a contract price are two different questions. The spread is the market’s estimate of the margin; the contract prices the win outright, and it is the one you can sell before the game ends. Books differ on the spread itself: our read found two games where a second book had a different number the same afternoon.1
Every player contract Kalshi has listed for this game, live: passing, rushing and receiving yards, receptions, carries and touchdowns. Each chip is a threshold and the price to buy YES on it.
Reading the Kalshi board.
No plan is posted on this game. The props section above is about one player; this is about the game itself.
The question on Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers are 0-4 and they are at home, and the line makes them the underdog by 3.5. Decide what chance you would give them, in cents, before you read the board. If your number is above the ask, that is the trade; if it is not, there is no trade here.
The question on Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos are 2-2 and favoured by 3.5. A favourite contract costs most of a dollar, so the money at risk is large against the money to be made. Work out what you lose if it goes wrong before you decide what you make if it goes right.
Whatever you decide, write the entry, the sell target and the hold rule before kickoff, and remember the fee is largest near 50¢. How the fee works
The Denver Broncos are 3.5-point road favorites over the Los Angeles Chargers at DraftKings, with the moneyline at Broncos -185 and Chargers +154 and a 42.5 total, per SI as read Oct 7, 2026. On Kalshi, as read Oct 7, 2026, the Broncos contract was 63 cents bid and 64 ask, about a 64% chance of a Denver win.
The Broncos play the Chargers on Sunday, October 11, 2026, at 4:05 PM ET (1:05 PM PT) at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. The Week 5 game is on CBS. Denver is 2-2 and Los Angeles is 0-4 going in.
The total for Broncos vs Chargers is 42.5 at DraftKings, per SI, and at the other major sportsbooks, per Chargers.com, as of October 7, 2026. The under is 8-2 in the Chargers’ last 10 games, per SI, and Covers has both teams 3-1 to the under this season.
As of October 7, 2026, ESPN listed Chargers LT Rashawn Slater (ankle) out, with WR Ladd McConkey (foot), RT Joe Alt (neck), G Trevor Penning (concussion) and S Derwin James Jr. (hamstring) questionable. Denver CB Pat Surtain II and WR Pat Bryant, both with ankle injuries, were doubtful, and CB Riley Moss (ribs) was questionable.
As read Oct 7, 2026, Kalshi had Omarion Hampton at 71 cents bid and 73 ask for 25 or more rushing yards, and 49 bid, 50 ask for 40 or more. He has run for 43, 94, 56 and 45 yards in Weeks 1-4, so 40-plus in all four games, on 59 carries for 238 yards.
As read Oct 7, 2026, Kalshi had Bo Nix 200 or more passing yards at 62 cents bid and 67 ask, and Justin Herbert 200 or more at 49 bid, 52 ask. Each has topped 200 in two of four games: Nix threw for 131, 288, 186 and 214, Herbert for 209, 192, 226 and 189.
Half the total moved half the spread puts Denver Broncos at about 23 points and Los Angeles Chargers at about 19.5. That is arithmetic on the two posted numbers, not a score projection, and it is the figure most fantasy decisions on this game turn on.
A pick'em entry is a parlay, so every leg has to land: two legs you price at 60 per cent are 36 per cent together, and three are 22 per cent. If your board pays N times the entry on an L-leg play, the entry needs to win one divided by N of the time, so each leg needs the L-th root of that. A two-leg play paying 3x needs each leg at about 57.7 per cent, and a four-leg play paying 10x needs each at about 56.2 per cent. Multipliers differ by state, board and promotion, so use your own terms.
Every stored figure on this page came from one of these, read 2026-10-05. Lines move and injury news lands after that; the prices in the strip and on the board are read live when the page loads, not written into it.
PM Countdown is not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi, Polymarket, ESPN or the NFL. Prices shown are the venues’, not our picks.
21+Only risk what you can afford to lose. Set a money limit before you start, take profits on purpose and stop when you hit your limit. Not financial or betting advice. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET.
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