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The Trade Smart path · 5 lessons · free

Trade small. Cash out on purpose.

Five lessons, about 5 minutes each, with a working tool in every one. Start with the bankroll, finish with fast markets, then plan real trades on paper with the trade planner.

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    Counts lessons, check-ins and fair-value estimates. Never trades, deposits or clicks. A freeze covers a missed day, and you earn one back every 7 days, up to 2. Saved on this device.

    The path

    Five lessons, in order

    Each one has a key idea, a worked example with real math, one tool and a three-question quiz. Finishing the quiz marks the lesson done.

    1. Lesson 01: Bankroll and units

      Your bankroll is money you could lose without touching rent. One unit is 1 to 2% of it, and no single position gets more than 5%.

      Tool: Unit and 1/4-Kelly calculator       5 min

    2. Lesson 02: Taking profits and sell targets

      Write the entry, the sell target and the hold rule before the event. How a Kalshi sell order fills, and what happens when it doesn't.

      Tool: Trade plan builder       5 min

    3. Lesson 03: Reading Kalshi prices and fees

      22¢ means about 22%. The spread and the fee move your break-even, and an 85¢ contract can only make 15¢.

      Tool: Price and fee calculator       5 min

    4. Lesson 04: Tilt and loss limits

      Money limits set in advance work better than willpower. Raising stakes after a loss is the warning sign.

      Tool: Set-my-limit worksheet       5 min

    5. Lesson 05: 15-minute markets

      Strike, window and the 60-second settlement average. Why near-50¢ coin flips lose to fees, and why breaks matter.

      Tool: Window simulator       5 min

    Trade planner

    Plan it before you place it

    Put in the buy price, the sell target and the stake. The planner shows the payout if the target fills, the payout if it settles, the most you can lose, the break-even sell and how the price compares with your own fair value. It starts on Jay's UFC 331 numbers with an example fair value.

    Tool

    Trade planner

    Buy price, sell target and stake in. Every outcome out, including what your own fair value says.

    Fee included. 1 unit is 1 to 2% of bankroll
    Your own chance, written first

    • Buy –
    • Break-even sell –
    • Your fair value –
    • Sell target –
    Payout at target–
    Payout at settlement–
    Max loss–
    Contracts–
    Cost–
    Break-even sell–
    Implied by price–
    Your fair value–
    Your edge–
    Expected value if held–

    Same math as the v9 cashout calculator. Fees: 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up per order, on the buy and on the sell. "Payout at target" is the gain if the sell order fills. "Payout at settlement" is the gain if it never fills and YES wins. Expected value uses your fair value and assumes you hold. Nothing you type is saved or sent.

    The planner is a calculator, not a recommendation. The default 30% fair value is an example for teaching, not a rating of the fight.

    Glossary

    Words on the desk

    Every term the lessons use, in one place, with a link to the lesson that explains it.

    Ask
    The lowest price a seller will take right now. You pay it when you buy immediately. Lesson
    Bankroll
    Money set aside for trading that you could lose without touching rent, bills or savings. Lesson
    Bid
    The highest price a buyer will pay right now. You get it when you sell immediately. Lesson
    Break-even sell
    The lowest sell price that returns your full cost after both fees. For 100 contracts bought at 22¢, it's 25¢. Lesson
    BRTI
    The CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index. Kalshi's 15-minute BTC contracts settle on a 60-second average of it. Lesson
    Cashout
    Selling a contract before settlement. On our record it counts only if Kalshi's trade history shows the target traded. Lesson
    Contract
    A YES or NO position that settles at $1 if it's right and $0 if it's wrong. Lesson
    Fair value
    Your own estimate of the chance, written before you look at the price. A trade needs your number above the price. Lesson
    Fee
    Kalshi's taker fee: 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up per order. Largest at 50¢. Lesson
    Funding cap
    A personal deposit limit you set in Kalshi. Set it to your monthly loss limit. Lesson
    Hold rule
    The line in your plan that says what you do if the sell target never trades. Usually: hold to settlement. Lesson
    Implied probability
    The price read as a chance. 22¢ is about 22%. Lesson
    Kelly, 1/4
    A quarter of the Kelly criterion's suggested size, capped at 5% of bankroll. The only way we teach Kelly. Lesson
    Opt-out
    A voluntary break from trading for a period you choose. Kalshi offers them in its Responsible Trading Hub. Lesson
    Resting order
    A limit order that waits on the order book until someone trades against it or you cancel it. Lesson
    Settlement
    When the market resolves and each contract pays $1 or $0. Lesson
    Spread
    Ask minus bid. You pay it every time you go in and out right away. Lesson
    Strike
    The price to beat in a BTC window, set when the window opens. Lesson
    Tilt
    Trading on emotion instead of the plan. Chasing losses is the common form. Lesson
    Unit
    A fixed slice of the bankroll. Our house convention is 1 to 2%. Lesson
    Window
    The 15 minutes a KXBTC15M contract trades. A new one opens every quarter hour. Lesson

    How we teach

    Every factual claim links to its source. Our own conventions, like the 1 to 2% unit, are labeled as ours. How we lock and grade trades

    21+Lessons are education, not betting or financial advice. Only risk what you can afford to lose. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER, or call, text or chat 1-800-MY-RESET. Responsible gambling guide