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About and methodology

A record you can check

Who runs this site, how every trade plan is locked before the event and graded on Kalshi's own prices, and how the site makes money.

Who runs it

One trader, one method

PM Countdown is run by Jay, who trades Kalshi contracts himself with the method on this page: buy below his own fair value, set the sell target before the event, cash out if the market moves there, and hold to settlement if it never does.

Jay doesn't claim a license, a title or a track record. There is no record yet, and that's the point of the ledger below: judge the method and, once it opens, the results, losses included.

"PM Countdown" is a working name. PM Countdown isn't affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi or any exchange, sportsbook or app it covers. It isn't a broker, a sportsbook or an exchange, and it never holds money or places trades for anyone.

Method

Locked before, graded after

How each trade plan is written, frozen, chained and graded. These rules are part of the ledger's database design, so the database enforces them, not just our good intentions.

  1. 1

    Write the whole plan

    Market, side, entry price, sell target, fallback (hold to settlement, or a stop price), Jay's own probability and the size in units. Same three lines as lesson 02.

  2. 2

    Lock it before the event

    A plan can only be posted before the event starts. Once posted, the entry, target, fallback, stop and size are frozen: the database refuses edits. Nothing is deleted. A mistake becomes "void" with a line in an append-only audit log.

  3. 3

    Chain it

    Each trade gets a hash: SHA-256 of the previous trade's hash plus this trade's fields. We publish the latest hash, so anyone can recompute the chain and see that no earlier trade was changed.

    Trade 1fieldsprev: 000…hash a1f…
    Trade 2fieldsprev: a1f…hash 7c2…
    Trade 3fieldsprev: 7c2…hash published

    Diagram only. The hashes shown are shortened placeholders, not real values.

  4. 4

    Grade on Kalshi's prices

    A cashout counts only if Kalshi's public trade history shows a trade at or past the target after the entry and before settlement. If it doesn't, the trade settles at $1 or $0 and is graded that way. The evidence (Kalshi trade IDs and times) is stored with the grade.

  5. 5

    Count it in units

    Units = (exit − entry) ÷ entry, on 1 unit risked. The 22¢ to 35¢ plan is (35 − 22) ÷ 22 = +0.59 units before fees. With Kalshi's taker fee on both orders it's +$10.19 on $23.21 risked for 100 contracts, or +0.44 units. Holding to a loss is −1 unit.

  6. 6

    Show both numbers

    Every result is shown before and after fees, so the record is never flattered by leaving costs out.

StatusThese rules are designed and written into the ledger's database plan. The ledger isn't live yet. It opens with the first logged trade, and the 90-day public record starts that day.

Ledger

The public record

Every trade, including the ones that never hit their target, in one continuous list.

Empty until the first trade Ledger opens with the first logged trade

No trades have been logged yet, so there is nothing to show. We won't fill this space with sample numbers.

Get the Morning Board when it opens

What each row will show

  • Posted (time, before the event)
  • Market and side
  • Entry
  • Sell target
  • Fallback
  • How it ended: target, stop or settled
  • Exit price
  • Result in units, before fees
  • Result in units, after fees
  • Kalshi evidence
  • Hash

A record shows what we did, not what will happen next.

How we make money

Out in the open

Three ways, in the order we expect them to matter. None of them changes a plan or a grade.

1 · Sponsors

Flat-fee sponsorships

One sponsor per placement for a fixed weekly or monthly fee. Every sponsored spot is labeled "Sponsored," with its own disclosure and responsible gambling line. Open slots say they're open.

2 · Memberships

Memberships, later

A paid Desk membership opens only after a 90-day public record. Checkout will run on Whop. The ledger stays public for everyone.

3 · Referral links

CPA links, disclosed

Some links to apps pay us a flat fee if you sign up. Each one has a "Paid link" note right beside it and appears only where it's allowed.

What we don't do

No revenue share: we don't take a cut of what readers lose, because that pays us more when you do worse. No paid links in lessons or on the responsible gambling page. No sponsor ever sees a plan before it's published.

Corrections

When we're wrong

If a lesson, a column or a number on this site is wrong, we fix it and add a dated correction note at the bottom of the page saying what changed.

Trade plans are different: their fields never change. If a plan was posted with an error, it stays visible, gets marked "void" with the reason, and the audit log records it. A voided trade doesn't disappear from the count of trades.

Contact

Get in touch

Placeholder

Email

A contact address goes here once the domain is chosen. Until then, corrections and questions can't be sent through this site.

Writers

Pitch a column

Contributors disclose positions and follow our editorial standards.

Sponsors

Advertise and partners

Placements, the disclosure policy and our compliance commitments.

21+Nothing on this site is financial or betting advice, and past results don't predict future ones. Only risk what you can afford to lose. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER, or call, text or chat 1-800-MY-RESET.