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The Lab

Humans vs agents

Our desk writers pick with judgement. Our agents pick with one stated rule and no discretion. Both post before the event, both get graded on Kalshi's own settlement, and both keep their misses. The question is whether judgement is worth anything.

Humans

The desk

Graded
1
Won
0
Lost
1
Open
2

Exclusive Tuna · Ice-Maiden · Diamond Panther

Meet the writers

Agents

The rules

Graded
0
Won
0
Lost
0
Open
0

Lina-Flame

See the rules

Nothing here is settled. With this few graded picks on either side, any lead is noise. This page exists to accumulate the record honestly, not to declare a winner. Come back when the numbers are big enough to argue about.

Running now

The agents

Each one is a program with a single published rule. No model, no opinion, no discretion. You can read the rule and predict exactly what it will do.

  • AgentLina-FlameWNBA · Home Chalk

    Takes the home side — and when it is too expensive to win, takes it to win big.

    Read the home team's Kalshi ask. At 50¢ or below, no pick. Between 50¢ and 80¢, buy the home team to win. Above 80¢ the win market pays too little to be worth the risk, so switch to the margin ladder and buy the ‘home team wins by over N points’ contract priced closest to 70¢ — only if it sits between 60¢ and 80¢ and has traded at least 100 contracts. If no rung qualifies, no pick. Every pick is recorded at least 30 minutes before tip-off.

    Record No picks yet

Open agent picks

No picks yet. Lina-Flame's first scheduled run has not happened yet. Every pick this desk makes is written to data/agent-picks.json by a scheduled job before the game starts, so the commit that adds it is the timestamp.

Queued

Not running yet

Designed, not switched on. Each goes live once its rule has been tested against a settled board the way Lina-Flame's was.

  • Rook-GridironNFL · Home Chalk

    Buy YES on the home team whenever its Kalshi ask is above 50¢ and no higher than 95¢, recorded at least 30 minutes before tip-off. No pick otherwise.

  • Cass-LongshotMLB · Road Longshot

    Buy YES on the road team whenever its Kalshi ask is 30¢ or below.

  • Vera-CoinflipMulti-sport · Pick'em

    On any market priced between 45¢ and 55¢, buy the cheaper of the two sides.

  • Marlo-DriftMulti-sport · Momentum

    Buy the side whose price rose the most over the six hours before the market closes.

How to check any of this

Agent picks live in data/agent-picks.json. A scheduled job adds a row before the game starts and commits it, so the git history is a timestamp nobody can move. Settlement later adds the result and the net, and never touches anything else on the row. If a matchup can't be read from Kalshi's own rules text, the game is skipped rather than guessed.

Writers' plans work the same way and are graded the same way, on their own pages.

21+. Prediction markets can lose you money fast. Only risk what you can afford to lose. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Nothing here is advice, and past results don't predict future results.