The Lab
Humans vs agents
Our desk writers pick with judgement. Our agents pick with one stated rule and no discretion. Both post before the event, both get graded on Kalshi's own settlement, and both keep their misses. The question is whether judgement is worth anything.
Agents
The rules
- Graded
- 4
- Won
- 3
- Lost
- 1
- Open
- 0
- Big Chicken
- Sunday Bulldog
- Zamboni Turtle
- Stubborn Rhino
- Roadtrip Coyote
- Rico T-Rex
- Picky Badger
- Tightrope Flamingo
- Blueprint Beaver
- Patient Gator
- Lazy Llama
- Dartboard Chimp
- Blindfold Bat
- Comeback Cicada
- Budget Camel
- Leadoff Roadrunner
- Nickel Sloth
- October Owl
- Agent Komodo
Nothing here is settled. With this few graded picks on either side, any lead is noise. This page exists to accumulate the record honestly, not to declare a winner. Come back when the numbers are big enough to argue about.
Every picker
Humans and agents
The writers pick with judgment. Each agent is a program with a single published rule, no model and no discretion, so you can read the rule and predict exactly what it will do. Filter by who, market, style or when they get in.
All 49 pickers
The Desk5
Human writers. Judgment and a written plan, graded the same way
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Crease Angle
NHL game markets, written by a person, checked by a rule that does not care what he thinks.
Human—
NHLLead columnistHuman
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YoloDolo
Takes the silly ticket, then shows you the number that says not to.
Human—
LongshotsCollege footballThe maths
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Exclusive Tuna
Fight breakdowns and how Kalshi prices move around a card.
Human20-620 won, 6 lost across 26 graded picks
UFCMMAPrediction markets
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Ice-Maiden
WNBA game markets, written from the building.
Human2-02 won, 0 lost across 2 graded picks
WNBAOn site
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Diamond Panther
In-game prices, and whether the number left on the board is worth anything.
Human0-10 won, 1 lost across 1 graded picks
Live marketsIn-gameMLB
Featured agents20
Agents with their own page and public record: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, BNB, DOGE, gold, silver and copper 15-minute windows, and NFL parlays before kickoff
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Agent LoLo
Our trading concierge. Calls Bitcoin's 15-minute window when he is confident
Live, every 15 minLive
Bitcoin15 minLive
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Agent Brad
Our NFL film room. Posts a player-prop parlay only when his number beats the price
Before kickoff, every game day3-7
NFLPlayer props5 to 8 legs
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Agent Dime
Our NBA point guard. Player-prop parlays for the featured games, each one on the record before tip-off
Before tip-off, every game night9-7
NBAPlayer propsParlays
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Agent Rocco
Our MLB catcher. Player-prop parlays for the big games, each one on the record before first pitch
Before first pitch0-3
MLBPlayer propsParlays
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Agent AnJie
LoLo's cousin. Trades Ethereum's 15-minute window on LoLo's rules
Live, every 15 minLive
Ethereum15 minLive
-
Agent ZiC
The Lab's lookout. Trades Solana's 15-minute window on LoLo's rules
Live, every 15 minLive
Solana15 minLive
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Agent Gru
XRP's tiger. Calls XRP's 15-minute window, every ticket on the record
Live, every 15 minLive
XRP15 minLive
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Agent Mark
The Lab's black belt. Takes down BNB's 15-minute window on calculation, Krav Maga when it gets rough
Live, every 15 minLive
BNB15 minLive
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Agent Halo
The Lab's dog angel. Calls DOGE's 15-minute window, every ticket on the record
Live, every 15 minLive
DOGE15 minLive
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Agent Shami
Big ears, few words. Listens to every Zcash 15-minute window
Live, every 15 minNew
Zcash15 minLive
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Agent WoJi
Our gold elephant. Calls gold's 15-minute window with a model of his own
Gold hours, every 15 minNew
Gold15 min$250 a trade
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Agent Nelly
The Lab's estate lawyer. Calls copper's 15-minute window on LoLo's rules
Market hours, every 15 minLive
Copper15 minLive
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Agent Yuki
A white arctic fox. Trades platinum's 15-minute window on Nelly's playbook
Market hours, every 15 minPractice
Platinum15 minLive
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Agent Reya
A brown pelican from Louisiana. Trades natural gas's 15-minute window on Nelly's playbook
Market hours, every 15 minPractice
Natural gas15 minLive
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Agent Pally
A platypus who senses every palladium 15-minute window while the metal trades
Sun to Fri, every 15 minPractice
Palladium15 minLive
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Agent Skye
A puffin who watches every Brent crude 15-minute window while oil trades
Sun to Fri, every 15 minPractice
Brent15 minLive
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Agent JiHui
The Lab's snow leopard. Calls silver's 15-minute window on one tested rule
Market hours, every 15 minLive
Silver15 minLive
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Agent Lee
A black Korean bull who counts barrels in Cushing. Calls every WTI oil window
Market hours, every 15 minPractice
Oil15 minLive
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Agent Mosy
Agent Lee’s twin on the Brent side of the oil desk. Same playbook, the North Sea barrel
Market hours, every 15 minPractice
Oil15 minLive
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Agent Sonia
A violet hummingbird who hovers over every HYPE 15-minute window, day and night
Around the clock, every 15 minPractice
HYPE15 minLive
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Agent Echo
A fruit bat who listens to every NEAR Protocol 15-minute window, day and night
Around the clock, every 15 minPractice
NEAR15 minLive
Forex agents5
One agent for each of Kalshi’s five currency pairs, each with its own page and public record
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Agent EUR/USD
Trades the euro against the dollar, one 15-minute window at a time
Forex hours, every 15 minNew
EUR/USD15 minLive
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Agent GBP/USD
Trades the pound against the dollar, one 15-minute window at a time
Forex hours, every 15 minNew
GBP/USD15 minLive
-
Agent USD/JPY
Trades the dollar in yen, one 15-minute window at a time
Forex hours, every 15 minNew
USD/JPY15 minLive
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Agent Aussie
Trades the Australian dollar against the dollar, one 15-minute window at a time
Forex hours, every 15 minNew
AUD/USD15 minLive
-
Agent USD/CAD
Trades the dollar in Canadian dollars, one 15-minute window at a time
Forex hours, every 15 minNew
USD/CAD15 minLive
Home Guard4
Back the home side inside a price band
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01
Big Chicken
Never leaves the yard.
contested—
WNBAHome chalkMargin ladder
-
02
Sunday Bulldog
Guards the yard, every Sunday.
contested—
NFLHome chalkMargin ladder
-
03
Zamboni Turtle
Hard shell, home ice.
contested—
NHLHome chalkWeakest cell
-
04
Stubborn Rhino
Immovable, and never overpays.
contested—
NBAHome chalkNo ladder
The Drift4
Buy the cheap side, test whether it is too cheap
-
05
Roadtrip Coyote
Travels far, only when the fare is cheap.
contested—
MLBRoad longshots15-30c band
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06
Rico T-Rex
Little arms. Enormous bite.
contested—
UFCUnderdog bandTwo outcomes
-
07
Budget Camel
Travels light. Prices the trip.
contested—
NFL road dogs20-35 centsPaired test
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19
Agent Komodo
Patient. One bite ends it.
speculative2-02 won, 0 lost across 2 graded picks
UFCEvery fight scoredRound and method
Arithmetic4
Trade the fee and the maths, hold no view on the game
-
08
Picky Badger
Guards one narrow band and nothing else.
contested—
NCAAFFavourite bandFee arithmetic
-
09
Tightrope Flamingo
Balances where nobody has an opinion.
contested—
Pick'em bandSix leaguesWidest fee
-
10
Blueprint Beaver
Builds exact geometry. Has no opinion about football.
well documented—
NFL laddersHalf-point rungNo football view
-
17
Nickel Sloth
Slow money at the top of the book.
contested—
Multi-sportTop of the bookFee arithmetic
Execution4
Same view, different entry: how and when you get in
-
11
Patient Gator
Never crosses the spread. Waits for the price.
well documented—
Maker entryMirrors the ChickenSpread cost
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12
Comeback Cicada
Comes back from underground.
contested1-01 won, 0 lost across 1 graded picks
Live MLBRetrosheet countsBy hand
-
16
Leadoff Roadrunner
Bats first, never last.
contested—
Live MLBAway sideBy hand
-
18
October Owl
Works nights. Waits for October.
speculative0-10 won, 1 lost across 1 graded picks
Controls3
No mechanism. They exist to prove the measurement works
-
13
Lazy Llama
Drifts by the alphabet. Expected edge: none.
null control—
Null controlAlphabeticalMeasuring stick
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14
Dartboard Chimp
A dart throw you can recompute yourself.
null control—
Null controlSHA-256Recomputable
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15
Blindfold Bat
Blind by design. Follows the label, not the game.
null control—
Null controlLabel onlyDiagnostic
Null controls matter more than any winner here. Three of these agents have no possible edge: one picks alphabetically, one by a hash of the ticker anyone can recompute, one always buys whatever the exchange labels YES. If the leaderboard ever ranks a null control as a winner, the measurement is broken and every other number on this page is unproven. That is the check, and it is published in advance.
Open agent picks
No picks yet. Big Chicken's first scheduled run has not happened yet. Every pick shows here when it is made, and stays after it settles, win or lose.
Queued
Not running yet
Designed, not switched on. Each goes live once its rule has been tested against a settled board the way Big Chicken's was.
How to check any of this
Agent picks live in data/picks.json. A scheduled job adds a row before the game starts and commits it, so the git history is a timestamp nobody can move. Settlement later adds the result and the net, and never touches anything else on the row. If a matchup can't be read from Kalshi's own rules text, the game is skipped rather than guessed.
Writers' plans work the same way and are graded the same way, on their own pages.
Prediction markets can lose you money fast. Only risk what you can afford to lose. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET. Nothing here is advice, and past results don't predict future results.