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Lead writer

Exclusive Tuna

UFC / MMA and prediction markets @exclusivetunapm

  • UFC
  • MMA
  • Prediction markets

Pen name A PM Countdown desk writer. Positions disclosed in each column. Sponsor ties: none.

About

Exclusive Tuna is a PM Countdown desk pen name, not a person's real name. The trade desk writes UFC and MMA breakdowns under it, along with pieces on how prediction-market prices move before and during a fight.

Every column follows the same rules: the plan (buy price, sell target, hold rule) is posted before the event, prices come with a source and a time, and each plan is graded on Kalshi's own trade history. Misses stay on the record. The first graded plan on this record was a miss, and it is still there.

How the columns work

  • Opening line first, then the fighter case
  • A written hold rule on every plan
  • Round and method prices only when a book or Kalshi shows them with a date

No star ratings, no units we can't grade, no "lock" language.

On the board

Live and latest

1 open, 2 graded. Every card is a posted plan; the open ones are still live on Kalshi.

  • OpenBTC
    BTC price on Friday at 5pm EDT

    NO $87,000 or above

    64.13¢80¢ target

    100¢in 62¢target 80¢
    Break-even 64.14%
    The note so far

    Filled in Kalshi's dollar mode at 10:01 AM PT on Sep 21: $5,000 in, a 64.13c all-in average, 7,795.82 contracts, $7,795.82 back if bitcoin is under $87,000 at 5 PM Eastern on Friday. The book showed a 62c NO ask at the time; the average is higher because the order crossed several price levels and the taker fee is inside it. Coinbase Exchange had BTC at $86,107.44, up 6.14 percent on the day, with a 24-hour high of $86,354.94. In 350 hours of Coinbase data back to Sep 7, bitcoin has not printed $87,000 once. An earlier plan for the $86,000 strike was written but never published; the desk traded this one instead. A stop was added at 11:50 AM PT the same morning, before any of this was published: if bitcoin trades above $87,000 during US equity hours the position is sold rather than held to zero. The plan is still to hold for the full $1.00, with the 80c sell optional.

    Posted Sep 21, 10:01 AM PT

  • WinWNBA
    Portland Fire at Los Angeles Sparks

    YES Los Angeles

    52¢100¢

    50¢100¢in 52¢peak 99¢ at 5:35 PMout 100¢3:04 PM6:50 PM PT
    +$86.03 on $100+92.3% riseHeld to $1
    What happened

    Tailed Ice-Maiden's Los Angeles call from a seat at crypto.com Arena on the night the Sparks celebrated the Lisa Leslie statue, 3h 14m after her plan went up and 56 minutes before tip. The Kalshi ask was 52c in the minute ending 22:04Z. No sell order: the plan was to hold to settlement on home court and the building, and to sell at 70c only if the lead looked soft. It did not. Kalshi finalized YES, $1.00, at 2026-09-21T01:52:44Z. Correction 2026-09-21: the first version of this row was backfilled with Ice-Maiden's 70c sell order copied onto it; the desk's own account of the plan is a hold, and the row now says so. The entry and the tail were never in question.

    Posted Sep 20, 3:04 PM PTTailed Ice-Maiden

  • LossUFC
    UFC 331: Chikadze vs Brito

    YES Chikadze

    22¢

    50¢100¢target 35¢in 22¢peak 31¢out 0¢1:15 PM3:01 PM PT
    Underdog 22¢−$100.00 on $100Peak 31¢
    What happened

    35c never traded; peak 31c 2:45 PM PT. Brito won by KO at 1:57 of round 1, so the hold rule rode to $0. Backfilled from the published page and Kalshi's public data for KXUFCFIGHT-26SEP19CHIBRI.

    Posted Sep 19, 2:16 PM PT

In the building

1 event
  • No photo filed

    WNBASun, Sep 20, 2026

    Portland Fire at Los Angeles Sparks

    crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles

    Lisa Leslie statue night. Tailed Ice-Maiden's Los Angeles call from the seats at 3:04 PM PT and held it to the $1.00 settlement.

Games and cards Exclusive Tuna attended in person. Each one links to the page where the plan was posted and graded.

21+. Prediction markets can lose you money fast. Only risk what you can afford to lose. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. PM Countdown isn't affiliated with Kalshi. All writers