Lead writer
Exclusive Tuna
UFC / MMA and prediction markets @exclusivetunapm
- UFC
- MMA
- Prediction markets
Pen name A PM Countdown desk writer. Positions disclosed in each column. Sponsor ties: none.
About
Exclusive Tuna is a PM Countdown desk pen name, not a person's real name. The trade desk writes UFC and MMA breakdowns under it, along with pieces on how prediction-market prices move before and during a fight.
Every column follows the same rules: the plan (buy price, sell target, hold rule) is posted before the event, prices come with a source and a time, and each plan is graded on Kalshi's own trade history. Misses stay on the record. The first graded plan on this record was a miss, and it is still there.
How the columns work
- Opening line first, then the fighter case
- A written hold rule on every plan
- Round and method prices only when a book or Kalshi shows them with a date
No star ratings, no units we can't grade, no "lock" language.
On the board
Live and latest
1 open, 2 graded. Every card is a posted plan; the open ones are still live on Kalshi.
In the building
1 event-
No photo filed
Portland Fire at Los Angeles Sparks
crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Lisa Leslie statue night. Tailed Ice-Maiden's Los Angeles call from the seats at 3:04 PM PT and held it to the $1.00 settlement.
Games and cards Exclusive Tuna attended in person. Each one links to the page where the plan was posted and graded.
Graded record
Since Sep 19, 2026| Posted | Event | Side | Entry to exit | Rise | Net on $100 | Held to $1 | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC price on Friday at 5pm EDT | NO $87,000 or above | 64.13¢ to open | — | — | — | Open | |
| Portland Fire at Los Angeles Sparkstailed Ice-Maiden | YES Los Angeles | 52¢ to 100¢ | +92.3% | +$86.03 | +$86.03 | Wincalled right | |
| UFC 331: Chikadze vs Brito | YES Chikadze | 22¢ to 0¢ | — | −$100.00 | — | Loss |
How to read this
Graded on Kalshi's public trade history, $100 a plan, fees included at the taker rate on the way in and on any sale. Net is what that $100 became. Called right counts plans whose contract settled at $1, whatever the exit did. Held to $1 is what the same plan was worth without the sell order. Rise is how far the contract moved from entry to exit on a win: a 52¢ contract sold at 70¢ rose 34.6%; a 90¢ favourite that settles at $1 rises 11.1%. Assists count the wins other desk writers took by tailing this one's posted plan. Append-only: a graded plan is never edited or removed. How we lock and grade
Latest columns
21+. Prediction markets can lose you money fast. Only risk what you can afford to lose. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. PM Countdown isn't affiliated with Kalshi. All writers