Column · NFL · Rams at Broncos · Sunday Night Football, Sep 27
The interception a flag took away
The Rams led Denver 26-23 with 1:15 left when Josh Wallace picked off Bo Nix at the 8. A pass interference flag on Wallace wiped it out, Denver scored with 47 seconds left and won 30-26. The league later told Sean McVay the flag should not have been thrown. Here is the play, what the call cost the Rams, and how fast the market moved on it.
The short version
This was the Rams’ game to close. The interception would have given them the ball, a 3-point lead and 1:15 to run out. Kalshi traded the Rams up to 63¢ the minute Wallace caught it, then down to 29¢ once the flag stood. Replays and the league both point the same way: the receiver grabbed Wallace, not the other way around.
Exclusive Tuna Lead writer · NFL and prediction markets
Score at the snap
26-23
Rams, 1:15 left
Rams to win
45¢ to 63¢
before the snap, then the pick
After the flag
29¢
close of that minute
Denver’s chance
54% to 71%
ESPN, before and after
Final
Broncos 30, Rams 26
Nix TD, 0:47 left
The play
Denver took over trailing 26-23 and moved fast: a 21-yard throw from Bo Nix to Troy Franklin put the ball at the Rams’ 15 at the two-minute warning. Two short gains later it was 3rd and 6 at the 11 with 1:15 left, and the Rams spent their first timeout to set the defense.
Nix threw short right for Pat Bryant. Josh Wallace undercut it and intercepted at the 8, then stepped out of bounds. The Rams had the ball, the lead and 75 seconds to protect it. Then the flag: defensive pass interference on Wallace, 4 yards, no play. Denver had first and goal at the 7.
McVay said after the game it looked like “a good competitive play” from where he stood. Bryant’s own account, to the AP: I sold it just a little bit.
Why the call was wrong
- The contact came from the receiver. NBC rules analyst Terry McAulay said on the broadcast that the replay shows the receiver grab the defender and pull him in, and that he saw nothing Wallace did that significantly hindered Bryant.
- The league agreed. Three days later McVay said the NFL told him the flag should not have been called on Wallace.
- The receiver said so. Bryant called it a little pass interference that he sold. Interference has to significantly hinder the receiver; a receiver creating the contact is not that.
- It is not reviewable. A pass interference call cannot be challenged or reviewed, so the flag stood the moment it was thrown.
Why it was the Rams’ game
With the interception, the Rams take over at their own 8, up 3, with 1:15 left and two timeouts. Denver still has all three timeouts, and it needs a stop and then a field goal drive just to tie. That is a game the leading team wins far more often than not, and the market said so in real time: in the minute Wallace came down with the ball, the Rams to win traded as high as 63¢ on Kalshi, up from 45¢ before the snap.
Without it, Denver had four downs from the 7 and the momentum Wallace talked about after the game (They just got momentum
). ESPN’s model moved Denver from 54.6% before the snap to 70.7% after the flag. It still took a second Rams penalty, illegal use of hands on Quentin Lake on 3rd and goal, and a Nix touchdown overturned on review before Nix finally scored from the 1 with 47 seconds left.
The Rams got one more chance. Matthew Stafford moved them to the Denver 14 with 3 seconds left, a false start pushed them back 5, and his last throw for Davante Adams was intercepted in the end zone. Broncos 30, Rams 26.
What the flag did to the price
| Clock | The play | Denver |
|---|---|---|
| 2:351st and 10 at LA 36 | Bo Nix to Troy Franklin, 21 yards to the LA 15 | 53% |
| 2:001st and 10 at LA 15 | J.K. Dobbins up the middle for 2 | 52% |
| 1:222nd and 8 at LA 13 | Nix to RJ Harvey for 2 | 54% |
| 1:153rd and 6 at LA 11 | Nix for Pat Bryant, intercepted by Josh Wallace at the 8. Flag: defensive pass interference on Wallace, 4 yards, no play | 71% |
| 1:091st and goal at LA 7 | Dobbins for 2 | 70% |
| 1:052nd and goal at LA 5 | Nix incomplete to Courtland Sutton | 59% |
| 1:013rd and goal at LA 5 | Nix incomplete to Evan Engram. Flag: illegal use of hands on Quentin Lake, no play | 80% |
| 0:561st and goal at LA 2 | Nix incomplete to Nate Adkins | 76% |
| 0:512nd and goal at LA 2 | Nix run ruled a touchdown, reversed on review: down at the 1 | 72% |
| 0:473rd and goal at LA 1 | Nix up the middle, touchdown. Denver 30, Rams 26 | 96% |
If you held the Rams, the hardest part is the 63¢ print. For about a minute the market priced the Rams as the likely winner, and a sell order resting in the low 60s would have filled. That is the case for taking profit when a single play swings a game: you cannot appeal a flag, but you can lock in a price.
Questions people ask
Was the pass interference call on Josh Wallace correct?
The league told Rams coach Sean McVay it was not. McVay said the NFL told him the flag should not have been called, and NBC rules analyst Terry McAulay said on the broadcast that the receiver grabbed Wallace and pulled him in. Broncos receiver Pat Bryant said afterward that he sold it a little.
What happened on the play?
Denver had 3rd and 6 at the Rams' 11 with 1:15 left, trailing 26-23. Bo Nix threw short right for Pat Bryant and Josh Wallace intercepted at the 8. Wallace was flagged for defensive pass interference, which wiped out the interception and gave Denver first and goal at the 7. Nix scored on a 1-yard run with 47 seconds left.
How did the call move the prediction market?
On Kalshi the Rams to win closed at 45 cents the minute before the snap and traded as high as 63 cents in the minute of the interception. Once the flag stood they closed that minute at 29 cents, and after Denver's touchdown they were 13 cents. The market settled on Denver at 9:01 PM PT.
Did the flag alone decide the game?
It decided the most. Without it the Rams take the ball at their 8 with a 3-point lead and 1:15 left. With it, Denver still needed 7 yards, and a second Rams penalty, illegal use of hands on 3rd and goal, gave it a fresh set of downs at the 2 before Nix scored.
Sources
ESPN game summary for event 401872962: play by play, wallclock times and win probability, read Oct 5 (open). Kalshi public one-minute candles for the Rams to win, 5:00 to 9:00 PM PT Sep 27, read Oct 5. The AP’s game story by Pat Graham, Sep 28, with the McVay, Bryant and Wallace quotes (open). ProFootballTalk, Sep 30, and Fox Sports, Sep 30, on what the league told McVay (PFT, Fox). Terry McAulay’s comments on NBC, as reported by BroBible (open). DraftKings lines via ESPN: Denver −1.5 at the close (the Rams opened −2.5), total 44.5.
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