Bitcoin now trades in short slices as well as whole coins: up or down contracts that settle every few minutes on prediction markets, hourly price strikes, perpetual futures with leverage, and options on Bitcoin funds. This hub keeps it in one place: the live 15-minute window, every Bitcoin call we’ve made and graded, the settled-window archive, and plain explanations of what each product can cost you. Our desks and archive follow Kalshi’s contracts today, and we add other venues as we cover them. From September 20 to November 3, 2026, 2,115 of 4,276 settled 15-minute windows closed up.
Updated · How we grade
PM Countdown posts every Bitcoin call before it settles and grades it on the market’s own result, misses included. We aren’t affiliated with any exchange or prediction market. How we post and grade calls · Responsible gambling
Posted before they settle
Our Bitcoin calls graded at settlement
Every Bitcoin call we make is on this list, misses included, with the price paid, the stake and the result after Kalshi’s fees.
5 calls: 2 cashed, 3 open. Fees are counted in every figure.
Bitcoin below $75,000 in October?
- Side
- NO78.23¢ average
- Stake
- $2,000in
- Result
- +$556.24if right
Posted Oct 1. In at 78.23¢. Pays $1 if right.
Why September’s $75,000 line held, the October calendar, and the case against our side.
Exclusive TunaRead the plan
Bitcoin YES $74,000 or above, settles Nov 6
- Side
- YESat 82¢
- Stake
- $5,000in
- Result
- +$959.36if right
Posted Oct 31. In at 82¢. Pays $1 if right.
Exclusive TunaRead the plan
Bitcoin YES $75,000 or above, settles Nov 6
- Side
- YES75¢ average
- Stake
- $500.84in
- Result
- +$166.95if right
Posted Oct 31. In at 75¢. Pays $1 if right.
Agent LoLoRead the plan
Bitcoin above $81,000 on Oct 2
- Side
- YESat 83¢
- Stake
- $2,000in
- Result
- +$381.25fees counted
Posted Sep 25. In at 83¢, paid $1 at settlement on Oct 2.
Exclusive TunaSee the result
Bitcoin under $87,000 on Sep 25
- Side
- NO58.17¢ average
- Stake
- $5,000in
- Result
- +$1,779.16fees counted
Posted Sep 21. In at 58.17¢, out at 80¢ on Sep 23.
Exclusive TunaSee the result
No calls here yet. Misses land on this list the moment they settle.
The calls are Exclusive Tuna’s: Exclusive Tuna’s record · every call on the site · Bitcoin’s 2026 cycle, event by event
Get our calls in one email a day. Misses included, at a set time, nothing else.
Live around the clock
Live desks and the agent trading them
Pick the desk by how long you want a trade to last. The live numbers are in the card at the top of this page, so these cards just tell you where to go.
Bitcoin 15-minute up or down desk
A new window every quarter hour, around the clock. The chart, both sides of the contract and your payout after fees on one screen. For a decision you finish in one sitting.
Open the 15-minute deskBitcoin hourly desk
Several strikes for the same hour, so you choose how far from the price you want to be. Each hour starts trading one hour before it closes.
Open the hourly deskAgent LoLo
An AI agent that calls every Bitcoin 15-minute window live and keeps every miss on a public log, on the same screen as the window.
Watch LoLo on the live deskNeed a break between windows? The Reset Monitor is on the desk. New to agents? How our AI prediction market agents work.
The archive
Every window settled and on file
We keep every settled Bitcoin 15-minute window, one page per day, with the price to beat, where Bitcoin settled and how the price moved.
4,276 settled windows from September 20 to November 3, 2026: 2,115 closed up and 2,161 closed down, across 45 days. Oct 29 recorded 88 of its 96 windows. Oct 22 recorded 88 of its 96 windows. Oct 15 recorded 88 of its 96 windows. Oct 8 recorded 88 of its 96 windows. Oct 1 recorded 88 of its 96 windows. Sep 24 recorded 88 of its 96 windows.
Every settled Bitcoin 15-minute window · Bitcoin 15-minute results, Nov 3, 2026
Each window is priced on its own. A run of ups tells you nothing about the next one, and what doubling after a loss did on every window shows what following a streak costs.
Learn
Learn it in order four short tracks
Three short-term Bitcoin products, three different risks. Read the table first, then the three lessons in the order below.
| Question | 15-minute up or down | Hourly strikes | Perpetual |
|---|---|---|---|
| When it settles | Every 15 minutes, around the clock | Once an hour | Never; you close it |
| What you choose | Up or down | A strike near the price | Long or short, and leverage |
| Most you can lose | What you paid plus the fee | What you paid plus the fee | Your margin, and more if the close slips |
| Graded on this site | Yes: the archive and Agent LoLo | Yes: our calls | No |
Start here
- Prices and fees
What 54¢ means, and why the fee is biggest near 50¢. How Kalshi prices and fees work
- How a window settles
The price to beat, the 60-second average and what a tie does. How Bitcoin 15-minute markets settle
- How much to trade
One unit is a small, fixed slice of money you could lose. How to size a trade: bankroll and units
15-minute windows
3 reads
Hourly strikes
2 reads
Perpetuals
Bitcoin perpetuals explained, not traded
A perpetual future has no expiry, moves money between longs and shorts through funding, and uses leverage. Many exchanges list Bitcoin perps. The US-regulated one we cover today is Kalshi’s, trading since June 3, 2026 after the CFTC approved it on May 29, with funding every 8 hours at 9:00 PM, 5:00 AM and 1:00 PM PT.
How Kalshi perps work
What a perpetual is, how funding moves money between longs and shorts, and what the cap does.
Read the perps explainerBitcoin perpetuals on Kalshi
One real-price example at three stake sizes, with the price each one is closed out at shown as large as the gain.
See the close-out priceWith leverage, the loss can outrun your stake.
Mining
Bitcoin mining cost and the next halving
What it costs to produce one bitcoin is the floor many traders watch, and the halving is the one scheduled change to supply.
Bitcoin mining calculator
Pick a machine and a power price, and see what one coin costs to mine, all in.
Open the mining calculatorThe next halving cuts the block reward in half at block 1,050,000. A height, not a date: our last chain read was .
The next halving, counted in blocks · Live Bitcoin block globe
On chain
The whales and Satoshi who holds the most and who moved
The biggest Bitcoin addresses are public. We list the 100 largest, name an owner only where a source does, and watch the one holder everyone waits on.
Bitcoin wallet tracker
The 100 largest addresses: balance, who holds each where a source says so, and when it last sent and received coins. Refreshed every 6 hours.
Open the wallet trackerWill Satoshi’s coins move?
About 1.096M BTC across some 22,000 addresses, untouched since 2010 by Arkham’s count, and two markets pricing a move, rules side by side.
See the odds and the rulesNew to all of this? What is Bitcoin, the plain version
Where we trade
Where we trade and what the link means
We trade these contracts on Kalshi, an exchange regulated by the CFTC. The button below is a plain link to kalshi.com. It carries no referral code, and Kalshi doesn’t pay us when you sign up, so it changes nothing about your account or our calls.
If a friend who uses Kalshi shares a referral code, how the Kalshi referral bonus works has the rules, checked against Kalshi’s own FAQ.
Questions
Questions people ask answered plainly
What are the ways to trade Bitcoin short term?
Four, mostly: up or down contracts on prediction markets that settle every few minutes or every hour, hourly price strikes, perpetual futures with leverage, and options on spot Bitcoin ETFs through a stock broker. The contracts pay $1 or $0 at a set time; a perpetual has no expiry and can be liquidated; a bought option can lose at most what you paid for it. How contract prices and fees work is the place to start.
What is the Bitcoin 15-minute up or down market?
A contract that asks whether Bitcoin finishes at or above the price to beat when the 15-minute window closes. A new window opens every 15 minutes, around the clock. How Bitcoin 15-minute markets settle.
Is there a 5-minute Bitcoin up or down market?
Yes. Polymarket lists Bitcoin up or down markets from 5 minutes out to a year. Polymarket.com blocks US traders and points them to a separate US app, so check which one you can use where you live. Our live desk and archive follow Kalshi's 15-minute windows today.
What price settles Kalshi's 15-minute Bitcoin contract?
A 60-second average of the CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index over the final minute, not the last trade on one exchange, so one spike in the last second can't decide it alone.
What happens if Bitcoin finishes exactly at the price to beat?
It resolves up. The strike is “at or above”, so a tie goes to YES.
Is Kalshi's Bitcoin price the same as Coinbase's?
No. Coinbase is one of the exchanges inside the CF Benchmarks index, so the two track closely but can differ. Our desk chart draws Coinbase candles and says so.
How much is Kalshi's fee on a Bitcoin contract?
The taker fee is 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up per order. At 50¢ that is 1.75¢ a contract, the most it gets. The fee, worked through.
How often does Bitcoin close up in a 15-minute window?
From September 20 to November 3, 2026, 2,115 of 4,276 settled windows closed up. Each window is priced on its own, so a run of ups tells you nothing about the next one. Every settled window.
Can you trade Bitcoin perpetual futures on Kalshi?
Yes. The CFTC approved Kalshi's Bitcoin perpetual on May 29, 2026, and it began trading on June 3, 2026. Access needs a separate application. Leverage changes with position size and side, so the number on your own order ticket is the only one that counts. We explain perps and never grade a position on one.
When is funding charged on Kalshi's Bitcoin perpetual?
Every 8 hours: 9:00 PM, 5:00 AM and 1:00 PM PT. Each charge is capped at 2% either way, and a rate under 0.01% is set to zero. The cap is a ceiling, not the usual charge.
Who is Agent LoLo?
An AI agent that calls Bitcoin 15-minute windows live on our desk and keeps every call and every miss on a public log. Watch him on the 15-minute desk.
Is PM Countdown affiliated with an exchange?
No. We aren't affiliated with Kalshi, Polymarket or any exchange or broker. Our Kalshi links are plain links with no referral code, and Kalshi doesn't pay us when you sign up. How we post and grade calls.
Can I trade Kalshi's Bitcoin markets in my state?
Kalshi says access must be lawful where you are, and state rules are changing. Check Kalshi's own eligibility page before you sign up rather than trusting a third-party list.
Where these numbers come from
- Settlement of the 15-minute contract on a 60-second CF Benchmarks BRTI average: Kalshi Help Center, crypto markets, checked Oct 6, 2026.
- The taker fee formula: Kalshi fee schedule, checked Oct 6, 2026.
- Perpetual approval (May 29, 2026): CFTC Release 9240-26, checked Oct 6, 2026.
- Perpetual funding times, cap and zero rule: Kalshi Help Center, funding, checked Oct 6, 2026.
- Polymarket's Bitcoin up or down time frames, 5 minutes to a year, and its US access banner: Polymarket, Bitcoin crypto markets, checked Oct 6, 2026.
- Our calls, their prices, stakes and nets: PM Countdown picks ledger, graded on Kalshi's result, built Nov 4, 2026.
Computed on this page. Counted on this page from our settled-window archive: the window, up and down totals, the date range and the latest day. Every call card is read from our ledger, fees counted, when the page is built.
What we could not verify, and therefore left out
- Whether every hourly Bitcoin contract settles on the same 60-second average. We confirmed it for the 2:00 PM PT contract only, so this page doesn't say it for the rest.
- Agent LoLo's running record. His numbers go on this page once his own pages and this one say the same thing.
- Kalshi's perpetual fee rates, which are tiered by volume. We link the schedule instead of printing a rate.
Up a level
Only risk what you can afford to lose. These pages are information, not advice. Kalshi users can set funding caps and opt-outs in the Responsible Trading Hub. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET. Responsible gambling guide
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