Bitcoin’s 2026 cycle, read event by event, and what the method projects

Where the cycle is, named event by event

Wyckoff is not a shape you eyeball. It is a sequence of specific events, each with a name, each confirmed or denied by volume. Here is the sequence bitcoin actually printed between June and September 2026, with the volume on every one as a multiple of the period average.

$90,573 to $119,073

Where this method points bitcoin by the end of the year. It is $84,393.59 now. The method projects how far, not when, the dates come from two measured rates of advance. A daily close under $74,888 voids all of it.

Price Wyckoff Projection

Extrapolation Play Scrub the projection Date24 Sep 2026 Faster$84,394 Slower$84,394

Volume is each day’s Coinbase BTC-USD volume divided by the mean daily volume from 15 April to 24 September 2026. Wyckoff’s third law is effort versus result: the volume column is the effort, the price column is the result, and where the two disagree is where the information is.

Why the Spring is the one that matters

The lowest price of the cycle, $57,718 on 1 July, is not the Selling Climax. The climax came four weeks earlier at $59,073, on 3.98× volume, the heaviest session of the period, on the widest spread of the decline, closing a third of the way back up off its own low. The July low was lower in price on 1.48× volume, barely a third of the climax, and it closed back inside the range the same day.

That combination has a name. It is a Spring: price gets pushed under the floor to see who panics, and almost nobody does. The two tests that followed, 1 August at 0.42× and 14 August at 0.71×, each a higher low, are Wyckoff’s own definition of a successful test: a higher low on lesser volume. The two sessions after the second test traded at 0.17× and 0.25×, the quietest of the entire period. There was no supply left to absorb.

Four days later price covered $64,112 to $78,326 in three sessions, on 2.35×, 2.24× and 2.81× volume, straight through the $67,264 ceiling without pausing. That is the Sign of Strength, in Wyckoff’s own imagery, the jump across the creek.

The projection, and why we show you four of them

Wyckoff’s second law is cause and effect: the sideways range builds the cause, and the size of the move out of it is the effect. The cause is measured by counting columns across a Point & Figure chart of the range, then multiplying by the box size and the reversal.

We counted from Preliminary Support on 2 June to the last test on 18 August, at the row where the most columns sit, with the standard 3-box reversal. Here is what the method gives at four ordinary box sizes:

The coarser you count, the more the method promises. Same data, same range, same method, and moving one dial from the finest setting to the coarsest moves the target from $78,573 to $119,073. A $40,500 spread, produced by a chart setting and nothing else. Anyone who quotes you a single Wyckoff price target has picked a setting and not mentioned which one. That is the most useful thing on this page, and it is why the whole table is here instead of the number we like best.

Stripped of the false precision, what the count says is this: the cause built between June and August is large enough to support a move of roughly $20,000 to $60,000 off the range. The low end has already been met. The rest is unproven.

And by when

Wyckoff’s cause and effect projects how far. It says nothing about how long, the method has no time axis. So the dates below are not Wyckoff output. They are two rates of advance measured off this markup, and one replay of the previous cycle, extrapolated forward. That is a weaker kind of claim than the price targets, and it is labelled as one.

Two unrelated methods land on the same day. The cause took 77 days to build, from Preliminary Support on 2 June to the last test on 18 August. Markup began on 19 August. An equal-time markup therefore ends on 4 November, which is the same date the $106,323 target arrives at the slower of the two measured rates. Nothing forced that; the two calculations share no inputs. It is worth noticing and it is not proof of anything.

The previous cycle, replayed

This is not the first time bitcoin has printed this exact structure. In 2025 the Selling Climax came on 28 February at $78,168 on 3.84× volume, and the Spring on 7 April at $74,421. Same sequence, same order.

Measured from the close on each Spring day, here is where the two cycles stand against each other:

• 2025 at day 85: +35.4%
• 2026 at day 85 (which is today): +40.7%

This cycle is running about five points ahead of the last one at the same distance past its Spring. The 2025 markup peaked on a close basis at +54.7% on day 180. Replayed on this cycle’s Spring close of $59,961, that lands at roughly $92,760 around 28 December 2026, the dashed blue line on the projection chart.

One difference that cuts against the comparison: the 2025 Spring came on 3.33× volume, this one on 1.48×. A Spring on lighter volume is the better signal in Wyckoff terms, less supply had to be absorbed, so the two setups are not identical, and a two-cycle sample is not a pattern. It is one prior instance, shown because it is checkable, not because it is predictive.

What voids this read: a daily close below $74,888, the Last Point of Support. Wyckoff’s structure says price should not return below the LPS once markup is under way; if it does, Phase D has failed and every target above is void. A close below $62,210, the first test of the Spring, would void the accumulation read entirely and put the cycle back to square one.

This is a framework output, not a forecast, and not advice. Wyckoff event labelling is interpretive: the sequence above is one reading, and the Secondary Test is the arguable one, because it undercut the climax low on volume still above 2×. Every price, date and volume figure is shown so you can disagree with the labels and keep the data.

Bitcoin perpetuals, the leverage ladder and what a position is closed out at are on the perpetuals page. The settled record every one of these prices comes from is in the daily results archive.

Not advice. PM Countdown publishes trades and education for information. It isn’t financial advice, we aren’t an exchange, and we don’t hold money or take trades. Past results don’t predict future results.