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Trade Smart path · Lesson 02 of 05

How to take profits on Kalshi, on purpose

Taking profits on a prediction market means selling your contracts to another trader before settlement, usually with a resting sell order at a target you wrote down before the event; there is no cash-out button. This lesson covers the three lines of a plan (entry, sell target, hold rule), how a resting order fills, and the Chikadze 22¢ to 35¢ plan worked out with fees: +$10.19 on 100 contracts, break-even at 25¢.

5minutes Tool: trade plan builder 3-question quiz Not finished yet Published Sep 19, 2026 · Checked Sep 27, 2026

Key idea

Write three lines before the event: the entry, the sell target and the hold rule. Then let the order do the work.

  • Entry: the most you'll pay, from your own fair value.
  • Sell target: a resting sell order, placed as soon as the buy fills.
  • Hold rule: what happens if the target never trades. Usually: hold to settlement.
  • Settlement: $1 if YES happens, $0 if not. On our record a cashout counts only if Kalshi's public trade history shows the target traded.
1 · Entry22¢Buy YES Chikadze at 22¢ or better
2 · Sell target35¢Resting sell order, set before the fight
3 · Hold ruleHoldIf 35¢ never trades, hold to settlement

Why the plan comes first

A trade plan is three lines written before the event: the entry (the most you will pay), the sell target (a resting sell order placed as soon as the buy fills), and the hold rule (what happens if the target never trades).

Once money is live, decisions get worse. A large study of betting data found that after a loss, people raised their stakes and played longer Sci Rep 2024. A plan written the night before is made by the calmer version of you. On this site, a plan locks before the event starts and its fields can't be edited after that (how we lock and grade).

Jay's UFC 331 plan (Saturday, Sep 19, 2026) is the model. Giga Chikadze (15-6) was the underdog against Joanderson Brito (19-5-1). The plan didn't need Chikadze to win. It needed the price to move from 22¢ to 35¢ at some point during the fight, which can happen if the underdog wins early exchanges.

How a resting sell order fills on Kalshi

  1. Your buy order fills and you own YES contracts at 22¢.
  2. You place a limit sell at 35¢ right away. It rests on Kalshi's order book, visible to other traders, until it fills or you cancel it.
  3. It fills only when a buyer pays 35¢. Other sellers can be ahead of you at the same price, so a brief touch of 35¢ doesn't promise a fill. It can also fill in part: some contracts sold, the rest still waiting.
  4. You don't move it lower mid-event. Cancelling the order to chase a better price is a new decision the plan didn't make.

If the target never trades

Then the hold rule runs. The contract settles at $1 if YES happens and $0 if it doesn't, and the trade goes on the record either way. On our ledger, a cashout counts only if Kalshi's public trade history shows a trade at or past the target after the entry and before settlement. Otherwise the trade is graded at $1 or $0. That rule stops a record from keeping the cashouts and quietly dropping the misses.

Worked example

The Chikadze plan, 100 contracts

22¢ to 35¢
Buy 100 YES at 22¢$22.00100 × $0.22
Entry fee$1.210.07 × 100 × 0.22 × 0.78 = $1.2012, rounded up to the cent
Total cost, and the most you can lose$23.21If it settles at $0, this is the loss
Sell 100 at 35¢ when the order fills$35.00100 × $0.35
Exit fee$1.600.07 × 100 × 0.35 × 0.65 = $1.5925, rounded up
Gain before fees+$13.0013¢ a contract × 100
Gain after both fees+$10.19$35.00 − $1.60 − $23.21
Break-even sell price25¢At 24¢: $24.00 − $1.28 fee = $22.72, short of $23.21. At 25¢: $25.00 − $1.32 = $23.68.
Never fills, Chikadze wins+$76.79Settles at $1: $100.00 − $23.21
Never fills, Chikadze loses−$23.21Settles at $0

Buying 100 YES at 22¢ and selling at 35¢ makes $13.00 before fees and +$10.19 after Kalshi's taker fee on both orders; the break-even sell price is 25¢. Fees use Kalshi's taker formula on both orders so the numbers are never better than reality. A resting order can pay a lower fee, or none, depending on the market. Check Kalshi's fee schedule. This shows how the plan works. It isn't a recommendation.

Tool

Trade plan builder

Write the three lines, see every outcome, then copy the plan before the event starts.

Gain before fees–
Gain if the target fills–
Break-even sell–
Cost, the most you can lose–
Never fills, YES wins–
Never fills, YES loses–
If it never fills–

Fees: 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up per order, on both the buy and the sell. Spread and partial fills aren't included. Nothing you type is saved or sent.

Three rules for the target

  • Set it where the price can realistically trade, not where you hope it lands. A target below the break-even price is a loss with extra steps.
  • Size so the hold is fine. If the target never fills, you hold to $1 or $0. The stake should be a size you'd accept losing whole (lesson 01).
  • Taking the profit is the plan working, even if the price keeps going. The trade you wrote was 22¢ to 35¢.

This lesson ends when the contract is sold. Where the cashed money goes next picks up from there: what to set aside, what to move off the exchange, and how big the next bankroll should be after a good run.

Check yourself

Three questions

Finishing marks lesson 02 done and counts toward your learning streak.

When should the sell target be set?
Your 35¢ target never trades before the fight ends. What happens?
Buy 100 at 22¢, sell 100 at 35¢, with taker fees on both orders. What's the gain?

Next · Lesson 03 of 05 · 5 minReading Kalshi prices and fees

What a 22¢ price means, and how the spread and fee move your break-even.

This lesson is education, not betting or financial advice. Only risk what you can afford to lose, and set a money limit before you start. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET, or chat at 1800myreset.org. Kalshi users can set funding caps and opt-outs in the Responsible Trading Hub.

Sources

  1. Scientific Reports (2024): loss and win chasing
  2. Kalshi fee schedule
  3. Our grading rule: About and methodology. A cashout counts only if Kalshi's public trade history shows the target traded.

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