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UFC fight markets

Kalshi lists a YES contract for each fighter that pays $1 if that fighter wins. Our UFC 331 plan is the method in one card: buy below fair value, set the sell target, decide the hold rule before the fight.

GuidesKXUFCFIGHT checked Sep 19, 2026

Season: Cards most weekends, all year.

The archive

Every UFC card we have covered

Each card has an event page, a matchup archive for every bout and a graded result page.

  • UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2

    September 19, 2026Crypto.com ArenaLos Angeles

    Joshua Van beat Alexandre Pantoja by unanimous decision to keep the flyweight title, and five of the twelve bouts went to the underdog.

    • 12 of 12Bouts covered
    • 7 / 5Favourites / underdogs that won
    • 10¢Longest price that won, Sharaf

    UFC 331 event page Van vs. Pantoja result

    All 12 bouts on the card, 12 with pages

Live from Kalshi

Open UFC markets

YES prices in cents from Kalshi's public data. Only markets that close after right now are shown, grouped by fight.

Loading from Kalshi

Loading open markets from Kalshi

BidThe most a buyer will pay right now. Selling now gets you this.
AskThe least a seller will take. Buying now costs this.
LastThe price of the most recent trade.
SpreadAsk minus bid. Amber at 10¢ or more, where the gap eats most edges.

Source: Kalshi public market data, series KXUFCFIGHT, checked for this page on Sep 19, 2026. Prices can be a few seconds old. They are market prices, not our picks and not a recommendation. PM Countdown isn't affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi.

Method, not picks

How we approach the UFC

What we look at before we write a plan. Every plan still has three lines: the buy price, the sell target and the hold rule.

  1. Price the fight, not the name

    Records and reputations lag. We price styles, recent form and the path to a win for each fighter.

  2. Weigh-ins change things

    A missed weight or a short-notice replacement changes a fight. We re-check the plan after weigh-ins.

  3. The sell order goes in before the walkout

    Fight prices move round by round. A resting order at the target can fill during the fight while you're watching.

  4. Know what a draw does

    Read the market rules for a draw or a no contest before you buy. Don't assume.

Before you trade

What to check first

  • Re-check the plan after weigh-ins.
  • Read what a draw or no contest does to your contract.
  • Check the spread on the undercard, where books are thinner.
  • Keep the stake to one unit.

Every market on Kalshi has its own rules page. When our checklist and the rules disagree, the rules win.

The math on one plan

10 contracts, 22¢ buy, 35¢ sell order

Buy 10 YES at 22¢$2.20
Taker fee0.07 × 10 × 0.22 × 0.78 = $0.12012, rounded up$0.13
If the 35¢ sell order fills$3.50 back, minus a $0.04 maker fee if Kalshi charges one on that market (0.0175 × 10 × 0.35 × 0.65, rounded up)+$1.13
If it never trades and winsSettles at $1.00 × 10 = $10.00, minus the $2.33 cost+$7.67
If it never trades and losesSettles at $0. This is the most you can lose.−$2.33

Fee formulas from Kalshi's fee schedule. Same numbers as our UFC 331 plan. An example, not a recommendation.

Basics

How UFC markets work

One contract

One YES per outcome

Each side gets its own YES contract. It pays $1.00 if that outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't.

Probability

Price reads as a chance

A 22¢ YES price means the market puts it near 22%. Your edge is the gap between that and your own estimate.

Spread

Bid, ask and the gap

You buy at the ask and sell at the bid. The gap between them is a cost you pay every time you go in and out.

Fees

Fees move break-even

Kalshi's taker fee is 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent. Resting orders on many markets pay a lower maker rate. Fee schedule

Trade Smart path

Related lessons

All lessons
Lesson 02Cash out on purposeWrite the buy price, the sell target and the hold rule before the event starts.Lesson 03Kalshi prices and feesWhy 22¢ reads as about 22%, and how the spread and fees move your break-even.Lesson 01Bankroll and unitsSize every position from money you could lose without touching rent. One unit is 1 to 2% of it.

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21+Only risk what you can afford to lose. Set a money limit before you start, take profits on purpose and stop when you hit your limit. Not financial or betting advice. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER, or call, text or chat 1-800-MY-RESET.

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