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Golf outright markets

Golf markets are mostly outrights: one YES contract per golfer that pays $1 if that golfer wins the tournament. With a full field, most golfers are long shots, and long shots are where spreads get wide.

GuidesKXPGATOUR checked Sep 19, 2026

Season: Tournaments most weeks. Outright markets can list months ahead.

Live from Kalshi

Open Golf markets

YES prices in cents from Kalshi's public data. Only markets that close after right now are shown, grouped by tournament.

Loading from Kalshi

Loading open markets from Kalshi

BidThe most a buyer will pay right now. Selling now gets you this.
AskThe least a seller will take. Buying now costs this.
LastThe price of the most recent trade.
SpreadAsk minus bid. Amber at 10¢ or more, where the gap eats most edges.

Source: Kalshi public market data, series KXPGATOUR, checked for this page on Sep 19, 2026. Prices can be a few seconds old. They are market prices, not our picks and not a recommendation. PM Countdown isn't affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi.

Method, not picks

How we approach Golf

What we look at before we write a plan. Every plan still has three lines: the buy price, the sell target and the hold rule.

  1. Why long shots carry wide spreads

    Each golfer's contract has few traders. When we checked on Sep 19, 2026, some 2027 Masters rows had a 1¢ bid and a 38¢ ask. On a 3¢ contract, a 1¢ gap is a third of the price.

  2. Money tied up for months

    An outright listed in September may not settle until April. That stake can't be used for anything else in the meantime.

  3. The cut and the weekend

    Half the field goes home after two rounds. Prices move hard on Friday afternoon, so the sell target is set before the first tee time.

  4. Small stakes on long odds

    A long shot loses most of the time by design. We size outrights at a fraction of a unit.

Before you trade

What to check first

  • A winner contract is a lottery ticket to trade, not a position to hold. The world number one is around 20%.
  • A withdrawal after the first tee shot settles No. Only a withdrawal before it pays the last fair price.
  • Check the wave split before backing anyone in wind. A draw alone has been worth four strokes.
  • Know this event's cut line. It is top 65 and ties on tour, but 70, 60 or 50 at the majors.
  • A tie broken on countback rather than extra holes does not count as a playoff.
  • Ignore course history. Over eight seasons it predicted almost nothing, with an R-squared of 0.2%.
  • A weather-shortened tournament still settles. Only a full cancellation voids to the last price.

Every market on Kalshi has its own rules page. When our checklist and the rules disagree, the rules win.

How this market settles

Golf contracts on Kalshi

Withdraws before teeing offLast fair price
Withdraws afterSettles No
Countback, not extra holesNot a playoff

Read from Kalshi's filed contract terms for golf. The one-line summary on a market page is not the contract; the terms are. Rules vary by series, so check the market you are actually trading.

Basics

How Golf markets work

One contract

One YES per outcome

Each side gets its own YES contract. It pays $1.00 if that outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't.

Probability

Price reads as a chance

A 22¢ YES price means the market puts it near 22%. What matters is the gap between that and your own estimate.

Spread

Bid, ask and the gap

You buy at the ask and sell at the bid. The gap between them is a cost you pay every time you go in and out.

Fees

Fees move break-even

Kalshi's taker fee is 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent. Resting orders on many markets pay a lower maker rate. Fee schedule

Trade Smart path

Related lessons

All lessons
Lesson 03Kalshi prices and feesWhy 22¢ reads as about 22%, and how the spread and fees move your break-even.Lesson 01Bankroll and unitsSize every position from money you could lose without touching rent. One unit is 1 to 2% of it.Lesson 02Cash out on purposeWrite the buy price, the sell target and the hold rule before the event starts.

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21+Only risk what you can afford to lose. Set a money limit before you start, take profits on purpose and stop when you hit your limit. Not financial or betting advice. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET.

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