Baseball
MLB game markets
Every game gets a YES contract for each team that pays $1 on a win. Kalshi's open list has returned past-dated games, so this board asks for markets that close after now and filters again in your browser.
Season: The regular season ends in late September, then the postseason runs through October.
Live from Kalshi
Open MLB markets
YES prices in cents from Kalshi's public data. Only markets that close after right now are shown, grouped by game.
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Source: Kalshi public market data, series KXMLBGAME, checked for this page on Sep 19, 2026. Prices can be a few seconds old. They are market prices, not our picks and not a recommendation. PM Countdown isn't affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi.
No open Kalshi markets in this league right now.
Check back closer to first pitch. Kalshi's open list sometimes still carries past-dated games, so this board only shows markets whose close time is still ahead.
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Method, not picks
How we approach MLB
What we look at before we write a plan. Every plan still has three lines: the buy price, the sell target and the hold rule.
Start with the starting pitcher
No single input moves a baseball price more. We confirm the starter before we write a fair value.
Bullpens and the late innings
A tired bullpen matters in the late innings. We look at recent usage before we trust a lead in the price.
Weather and the park
Wind and temperature change how a park plays. We check the forecast on the day, not the night before.
162 games means small units
Baseball edges are small and the season is long. One unit per game and a written record, every day.
Before you trade
What to check first
- Confirm the starting pitcher is still listed.
- Read the rules for rainouts, suspended games and doubleheaders.
- Check the game date. The API close time comes days later.
- Check the spread and the fee.
Every market on Kalshi has its own rules page. When our checklist and the rules disagree, the rules win.
10 contracts, 22¢ buy, 35¢ sell order
| Buy 10 YES at 22¢ | $2.20 |
|---|---|
| Taker fee0.07 × 10 × 0.22 × 0.78 = $0.12012, rounded up | $0.13 |
| If the 35¢ sell order fills$3.50 back, minus a $0.04 maker fee if Kalshi charges one on that market (0.0175 × 10 × 0.35 × 0.65, rounded up) | +$1.13 |
| If it never trades and winsSettles at $1.00 × 10 = $10.00, minus the $2.33 cost | +$7.67 |
| If it never trades and losesSettles at $0. This is the most you can lose. | −$2.33 |
Fee formulas from Kalshi's fee schedule. Same numbers as our UFC 331 plan. An example, not a recommendation.
Basics
How MLB markets work
One YES per outcome
Each side gets its own YES contract. It pays $1.00 if that outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't.
Price reads as a chance
A 22¢ YES price means the market puts it near 22%. Your edge is the gap between that and your own estimate.
Bid, ask and the gap
You buy at the ask and sell at the bid. The gap between them is a cost you pay every time you go in and out.
Fees move break-even
Kalshi's taker fee is 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent. Resting orders on many markets pay a lower maker rate. Fee schedule
Trade Smart path
Related lessons
Free, every morning
Get the Morning Board
One market a day with the buy price, sell target and hold rule written out, plus a 60-second lesson. Free, and you can leave any time.
21+Only risk what you can afford to lose. Set a money limit before you start, take profits on purpose and stop when you hit your limit. Not financial or betting advice. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER, or call, text or chat 1-800-MY-RESET.
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