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MLB game markets

Every game gets a YES contract for each team that pays $1 on a win. Kalshi's open list has returned past-dated games, so this board asks for markets that close after now and filters again in your browser.

GuidesKXMLBGAME checked Sep 19, 2026

Season: The regular season ends in late September, then the postseason runs through October.

Live from Kalshi

Open MLB markets

YES prices in cents from Kalshi's public data. Only markets that close after right now are shown, grouped by game.

Loading from Kalshi

Loading open markets from Kalshi

BidThe most a buyer will pay right now. Selling now gets you this.
AskThe least a seller will take. Buying now costs this.
LastThe price of the most recent trade.
SpreadAsk minus bid. Amber at 10¢ or more, where the gap eats most edges.

Source: Kalshi public market data, series KXMLBGAME, checked for this page on Sep 19, 2026. Prices can be a few seconds old. They are market prices, not our picks and not a recommendation. PM Countdown isn't affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi.

Previews

Every MLB game we have written up

29 previews, Sep 20 to Oct 28. Records, the injury report, the season series and the price at the time we read it.

SunSep 201 game

MonSep 212 games

TueSep 222 games

WedSep 2315 games

SatOct 101 game

SunOct 111 game

MonOct 121 game

FriOct 161 game

FriOct 231 game

SatOct 241 game

MonOct 261 game

TueOct 271 game

WedOct 281 game

Method, not picks

How we approach MLB

What we look at before we write a plan. Every plan still has three lines: the buy price, the sell target and the hold rule.

  1. Start with the starting pitcher

    No single input moves a baseball price more. We confirm the starter before we write a fair value.

  2. Bullpens and the late innings

    A tired bullpen matters in the late innings. We look at recent usage before we trust a lead in the price.

  3. Weather and the park

    Wind and temperature change how a park plays. We check the forecast on the day, not the night before.

  4. 162 games means small units

    Baseball edges are small and the season is long. One unit per game and a written record, every day.

Before you trade

What to check first

  • There is no listed-pitcher protection. A scratch does not void your trade.
  • A rain-shortened game the league calls official still pays the full dollar.
  • Check the forecast against the 48-hour rule. Past it you are marked to a price, not refunded.
  • Lineups are submitted 2 to 3 hours before first pitch and released within 15 minutes.
  • Look at who pitched last night. A third straight day costs a reliever about 2.4mph.
  • At a retractable-roof park check the roof first. Houston's is open in only 9% of games.
  • At Wrigley, wind out above 10mph versus wind in is worth about 1.7 runs a game.
  • From September 1 rosters go to 28. Eliminated clubs have every reason to play call-ups.

Every market on Kalshi has its own rules page. When our checklist and the rules disagree, the rules win.

How this market settles

Baseball contracts on Kalshi

Shortened but officialPays in full
Listed pitcherNo protection
Not started in 48 hoursLast fair price

Read from Kalshi's filed contract terms for baseball. The one-line summary on a market page is not the contract; the terms are. Rules vary by series, so check the market you are actually trading.

Basics

How MLB markets work

One contract

One YES per outcome

Each side gets its own YES contract. It pays $1.00 if that outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't.

Probability

Price reads as a chance

A 22¢ YES price means the market puts it near 22%. What matters is the gap between that and your own estimate.

Spread

Bid, ask and the gap

You buy at the ask and sell at the bid. The gap between them is a cost you pay every time you go in and out.

Fees

Fees move break-even

Kalshi's taker fee is 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent. Resting orders on many markets pay a lower maker rate. Fee schedule

Trade Smart path

Related lessons

All lessons
Lesson 01Bankroll and unitsSize every position from money you could lose without touching rent. One unit is 1 to 2% of it.Lesson 02Cash out on purposeWrite the buy price, the sell target and the hold rule before the event starts.Lesson 03Kalshi prices and feesWhy 22¢ reads as about 22%, and how the spread and fees move your break-even.

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21+Only risk what you can afford to lose. Set a money limit before you start, take profits on purpose and stop when you hit your limit. Not financial or betting advice. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET.

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