MLB · Wednesday, Sep 23 · Matchup
Rays at Yankees: The market and the record disagree
First pitch 7:05 PM ET / 4:05 PM PT at Yankee Stadium. Rays are 96-61, Yankees are 90-67, and Kalshi has the two sides at 41¢ and 60¢.
Diamond Panther Desk writer, MLB
First pitch
7:05 PM ET / 4:05 PM PT
Wednesday, Sep 23
Ballpark
Yankee Stadium
Yankees
Probable starters
Mason Englert vs Gerrit Cole
TB, NYY
Kalshi, both sides
41¢ vs 60¢
TB, NYY
What the market says
The Rays have the better season, 96-61 against the Yankees at 90-67, and the market still makes the Yankees the favourite at 60¢. Home field, the starters and who is rested are all in that number and none of them are in a win-loss record. When the two disagree this plainly one of them is wrong, and this page does not know which.
| Side | Record | Bid / ask | Last | Contracts traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | 96-61 | 40¢ / 41¢ | 41¢ | 8,843 |
| Yankees | 90-67 | 59¢ / 60¢ | 60¢ | 202,220 |
Kalshi series KXMLBGAME, event 26SEP231905TBNYY, read Wed, Sep 23, 2026, 5:20 AM PT.1 You pay the ask to buy and take the bid to sell, so a round trip costs more than one column suggests.
Run the numbers
These are the prices we read at Wed, Sep 23, 2026, 5:20 AM PT, not numbers we typed in. Pick a stake and the panel counts the contracts it buys at 60¢, the fee on the way in, what a sell at your target returns if it fills, and what the whole position costs if Yankees lose. Nothing here places an order and nothing is saved.
Reading the price
A contract pays $1.00 if that side wins and nothing if it loses, so the price is the crowd’s probability with the house’s cut on top. At 41¢, the crowd says 41% on Rays. At 60¢ it says 60% on Yankees.
Those two add to 101%, not 100%. The extra 1 points are the spread between buying and selling, and it is what the market charges to take either side. It is the first thing to subtract before deciding a price is cheap.
Mason Englert starts for Rays and Gerrit Cole for Yankees. A starter is the single biggest thing in a one-game price, which is why a team can be better all season and still be the underdog tonight.
How we grade
If the desk posts a call on this game it goes up before first pitch with the buy price, the sell target and what happens if the target never fills, and it is graded on Kalshi’s own trade history with both fee legs counted, win or lose. A miss stays on the record next to the wins. How we lock and grade
The result page for this game is already up and will carry the final, the line score and every call once Kalshi settles the market. See the result page
Sources
Read Wed, Sep 23, 2026, 5:20 AM PT. Prices move after that; this page is not updated in place.
- Kalshi public markets API, series KXMLBGAME, event 26SEP231905TBNYY: both sides, bid, ask, last and contracts traded. kalshi.com
- MLB schedule feed: records, first pitch, ballpark and probable starters. statsapi.mlb.com
PM Countdown is not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi, MLB or any club. Prices are the market’s own. Diamond Panther is a PM Countdown desk pen name.
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