Key idea
A price in cents reads as a chance in percent. 22¢ is roughly 22%. Your edge is the gap between that and your own estimate, after the spread and the fee.
- A YES contract pays $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn't.
- You buy at the ask and sell at the bid. The gap costs you both ways.
- High prices pay little. An 85¢ contract can only make 15¢, before fees.
- The taker fee is 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent per order. It is largest at 50¢: 1.75¢ a contract.
What a Kalshi price means
A Kalshi contract settles at $1 or $0, so a YES price of 22¢ means the market is pricing that outcome at about a 22% chance. It's "about" because the spread and the fee sit on top. Sportsbook odds say the same thing in a different format: +319 works out to 100 ÷ (319 + 100) = 23.9%. Every sports board on this site shows its odds as contract cents first, for the same reason.
The price is the market's number, not yours. You only have a trade when your own fair value, written down first, is higher than what you pay. For a 15-minute window, here's how to estimate that fair value.
Bid, ask and the spread
- Bid: the best price a buyer will pay right now. It's what you get if you sell immediately.
- Ask: the best price a seller will take right now. It's what you pay if you buy immediately.
- Spread: ask minus bid. With a 21¢ bid and a 23¢ ask, buying and selling straight back loses 2¢ a contract before either fee.
The live BTC desk shows the current bid and ask for the open 15-minute window, with no account needed.
How Kalshi fees work
Kalshi's taker fee is 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the next cent for each order; it is largest at 50¢, where it is 1.75¢ a contract, and shrinks toward 1¢ and 99¢ Kalshi fee schedule. Resting orders can pay less on some markets, so we estimate with the taker formula to stay on the safe side. For 100 contracts at 22¢ the fee is $1.21, which moves your break-even chance from 22% to 23.21%.
| YES price | Cost of 100 | Fee (rounded up) | Fee per contract | Total cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22¢ | $22.00 | $1.21 | 1.21¢ | $23.21 |
| 35¢ | $35.00 | $1.60 | 1.60¢ | $36.60 |
| 50¢ | $50.00 | $1.75 | 1.75¢ | $51.75 |
| 85¢ | $85.00 | $0.90 | 0.90¢ | $85.90 |
Formula: 0.07 × 100 × price × (1 − price). At 22¢: 0.07 × 100 × 0.22 × 0.78 = $1.2012, rounded up to $1.21. Resting orders can pay less on some markets; check Kalshi's fee schedule.
Worked example
An 85¢ contract only makes 15¢
Same point as TheLines' guide to Kalshi's short markets TheLines: a high price looks safe, but one miss erases many small wins.
Questions about Kalshi prices and fees
- What does 22¢ mean on Kalshi?
- A YES contract pays $1 if it happens, so 22¢ reads as about a 22% chance. NO at the same moment is about 78%.
- How is the Kalshi fee calculated?
- 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the next cent per order. For 100 contracts at 22¢ that is $1.21.
- Why can an 85¢ contract only make 15¢?
- It pays $1 at most. After the $85.00 cost and the $0.90 fee, 100 contracts make $14.10 if YES, and you need to be right 85.9% of the time just to break even.
Money limits beat time limits. Set yours while nothing is at stake.
This lesson is education, not betting or financial advice. Only risk what you can afford to lose, and set a money limit before you start. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET, or chat at 1800myreset.org. Kalshi users can set funding caps and opt-outs in the Responsible Trading Hub.
Sources
- Kalshi fee schedule. Taker fee 0.07 × C × P × (1 − P), rounded up.
- TheLines: Kalshi 15-minute markets
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