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Football

NFL game markets

Kalshi lists a YES contract for each team in each game. It pays $1 if that team wins and $0 if it doesn't, so the price in cents reads roughly as the market's win probability.

GuidesKXNFLGAME checked Sep 19, 2026

Season: Weekly slates from September through the Super Bowl in February.

Live from Kalshi

Open NFL markets

YES prices in cents from Kalshi's public data. Only markets that close after right now are shown, grouped by game.

Loading from Kalshi

Loading open markets from Kalshi

BidThe most a buyer will pay right now. Selling now gets you this.
AskThe least a seller will take. Buying now costs this.
LastThe price of the most recent trade.
SpreadAsk minus bid. Amber at 10¢ or more, where the gap eats most edges.

Source: Kalshi public market data, series KXNFLGAME, checked for this page on Sep 19, 2026. Prices can be a few seconds old. They are market prices, not our picks and not a recommendation. PM Countdown isn't affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi.

Method, not picks

How we approach NFL

What we look at before we write a plan. Every plan still has three lines: the buy price, the sell target and the hold rule.

  1. Price the game before you look

    We write our own win probability from injuries, rest and matchups first. Looking at the market price first anchors you to it.

  2. Wait for the late-week injury report

    A quarterback's status moves an NFL price more than anything else. We don't post a plan while the starter is a question mark.

  3. Set the sell target before kickoff

    Prices jump on every score. A resting sell order at your target can fill mid-game while you're watching, not deciding.

  4. One slate, a few units

    Sunday offers a dozen games. Two positions in the same game or the same division are one risk, not two, so we size them together.

Before you trade

What to check first

  • Read the market rules for what a tie or a postponement does to your contract.
  • Look at the gap between bid and ask. A 1¢ gap is normal on big games; a wide gap is a cost.
  • Confirm the game date. The API close time often sits a few days after kickoff to allow for settlement.
  • Work out the fee before you place the order, not after.

Every market on Kalshi has its own rules page. When our checklist and the rules disagree, the rules win.

The math on one plan

10 contracts, 22¢ buy, 35¢ sell order

Buy 10 YES at 22¢$2.20
Taker fee0.07 × 10 × 0.22 × 0.78 = $0.12012, rounded up$0.13
If the 35¢ sell order fills$3.50 back, minus a $0.04 maker fee if Kalshi charges one on that market (0.0175 × 10 × 0.35 × 0.65, rounded up)+$1.13
If it never trades and winsSettles at $1.00 × 10 = $10.00, minus the $2.33 cost+$7.67
If it never trades and losesSettles at $0. This is the most you can lose.−$2.33

Fee formulas from Kalshi's fee schedule. Same numbers as our UFC 331 plan. An example, not a recommendation.

Basics

How NFL markets work

One contract

One YES per outcome

Each side gets its own YES contract. It pays $1.00 if that outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't.

Probability

Price reads as a chance

A 22¢ YES price means the market puts it near 22%. Your edge is the gap between that and your own estimate.

Spread

Bid, ask and the gap

You buy at the ask and sell at the bid. The gap between them is a cost you pay every time you go in and out.

Fees

Fees move break-even

Kalshi's taker fee is 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent. Resting orders on many markets pay a lower maker rate. Fee schedule

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21+Only risk what you can afford to lose. Set a money limit before you start, take profits on purpose and stop when you hit your limit. Not financial or betting advice. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER, or call, text or chat 1-800-MY-RESET.