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Open NFL markets
YES prices in cents from Kalshi's public data. Only markets that close after right now are shown, grouped by game.
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Source: Kalshi public market data, series KXNFLGAME, checked for this page on Sep 19, 2026. Prices can be a few seconds old. They are market prices, not our picks and not a recommendation. PM Countdown isn't affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi.
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Check back closer to kickoff. Kalshi's open list sometimes still carries past-dated games, so this board only shows markets whose close time is still ahead.
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Method, not picks
How we approach NFL
What we look at before we write a plan. Every plan still has three lines: the buy price, the sell target and the hold rule.
Price the game before you look
We write our own win probability from injuries, rest and matchups first. Looking at the market price first anchors you to it.
Wait for the late-week injury report
A quarterback's status moves an NFL price more than anything else. We don't post a plan while the starter is a question mark.
Set the sell target before kickoff
Prices jump on every score. A resting sell order at your target can fill mid-game while you're watching, not deciding.
One slate, a few units
Sunday offers a dozen games. Two positions in the same game or the same division are one risk, not two, so we size them together.
Before you trade
What to check first
- Read the market rules for what a tie or a postponement does to your contract.
- Look at the gap between bid and ask. A 1¢ gap is normal on big games; a wide gap is a cost.
- Confirm the game date. The API close time often sits a few days after kickoff to allow for settlement.
- Work out the fee before you place the order, not after.
Every market on Kalshi has its own rules page. When our checklist and the rules disagree, the rules win.
10 contracts, 22¢ buy, 35¢ sell order
| Buy 10 YES at 22¢ | $2.20 |
|---|---|
| Taker fee0.07 × 10 × 0.22 × 0.78 = $0.12012, rounded up | $0.13 |
| If the 35¢ sell order fills$3.50 back, minus a $0.04 maker fee if Kalshi charges one on that market (0.0175 × 10 × 0.35 × 0.65, rounded up) | +$1.13 |
| If it never trades and winsSettles at $1.00 × 10 = $10.00, minus the $2.33 cost | +$7.67 |
| If it never trades and losesSettles at $0. This is the most you can lose. | −$2.33 |
Fee formulas from Kalshi's fee schedule. Same numbers as our UFC 331 plan. An example, not a recommendation.
Basics
How NFL markets work
One YES per outcome
Each side gets its own YES contract. It pays $1.00 if that outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't.
Price reads as a chance
A 22¢ YES price means the market puts it near 22%. Your edge is the gap between that and your own estimate.
Bid, ask and the gap
You buy at the ask and sell at the bid. The gap between them is a cost you pay every time you go in and out.
Fees move break-even
Kalshi's taker fee is 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent. Resting orders on many markets pay a lower maker rate. Fee schedule
Trade Smart path
Related lessons
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One market a day with the buy price, sell target and hold rule written out, plus a 60-second lesson. Free, and you can leave any time.
21+Only risk what you can afford to lose. Set a money limit before you start, take profits on purpose and stop when you hit your limit. Not financial or betting advice. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER, or call, text or chat 1-800-MY-RESET.
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