Live from Kalshi
Open UFC / MMA markets
YES prices in cents from Kalshi's public data. Only markets that close after right now are shown, grouped by fight.
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Source: Kalshi public market data, series KXUFCFIGHT, checked for this page on Sep 19, 2026. Prices can be a few seconds old. They are market prices, not our picks and not a recommendation. PM Countdown isn't affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi.
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Check back closer to the walkout. Kalshi's open list sometimes still carries past-dated fights, so this board only shows markets whose close time is still ahead.
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Method, not picks
How we approach the UFC
What we look at before we write a plan. Every plan still has three lines: the buy price, the sell target and the hold rule.
Price the fight, not the name
Records and reputations lag. We price styles, recent form and the path to a win for each fighter.
Weigh-ins change things
A missed weight or a short-notice replacement changes a fight. We re-check the plan after weigh-ins.
The sell order goes in before the walkout
Fight prices move round by round. A resting order at the target can fill during the fight while you're watching.
Know what a draw does
Read the market rules for a draw or a no contest before you buy. Don't assume.
Before you trade
What to check first
- Re-check the plan after weigh-ins.
- Read what a draw or no contest does to your contract.
- Check the spread on the undercard, where books are thinner.
- Keep the stake to one unit.
Every market on Kalshi has its own rules page. When our checklist and the rules disagree, the rules win.
10 contracts, 22¢ buy, 35¢ sell order
| Buy 10 YES at 22¢ | $2.20 |
|---|---|
| Taker fee0.07 × 10 × 0.22 × 0.78 = $0.12012, rounded up | $0.13 |
| If the 35¢ sell order fills$3.50 back, minus a $0.04 maker fee if Kalshi charges one on that market (0.0175 × 10 × 0.35 × 0.65, rounded up) | +$1.13 |
| If it never trades and winsSettles at $1.00 × 10 = $10.00, minus the $2.33 cost | +$7.67 |
| If it never trades and losesSettles at $0. This is the most you can lose. | −$2.33 |
Fee formulas from Kalshi's fee schedule. Same numbers as our UFC 331 plan. An example, not a recommendation.
Basics
How UFC / MMA markets work
One YES per outcome
Each side gets its own YES contract. It pays $1.00 if that outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't.
Price reads as a chance
A 22¢ YES price means the market puts it near 22%. Your edge is the gap between that and your own estimate.
Bid, ask and the gap
You buy at the ask and sell at the bid. The gap between them is a cost you pay every time you go in and out.
Fees move break-even
Kalshi's taker fee is 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent. Resting orders on many markets pay a lower maker rate. Fee schedule
Trade Smart path
Related lessons
Free, every morning
Get the Morning Board
One market a day with the buy price, sell target and hold rule written out, plus a 60-second lesson. Free, and you can leave any time.
21+Only risk what you can afford to lose. Set a money limit before you start, take profits on purpose and stop when you hit your limit. Not financial or betting advice. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER, or call, text or chat 1-800-MY-RESET.
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