Kalshi · BTC up or down · 1m to 1h
BTC small-window desk
Pick a timeframe. Each tab tells you which Kalshi contract sits behind it, the payout after fees and when it closes.
A dot marks a contract length Kalshi actually lists (15m and 1h). The other tabs are our layouts of those contracts.
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The odds and payout on this page still update on their own.
Chart shows Coinbase BTC-USD. Coinbase is a constituent exchange of CF Benchmarks' BRTI, which Kalshi settles on. TradingView doesn't list BRTI itself. Times are Eastern.
Session check · this device
Time on the desk today
Counts only while a desk page is open and on screen. Resets at midnight.
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How to read this desk
Four numbers, then a decision
Every tab ends in the same question: is the price you'd pay below what you think the contract is worth, after the fee?
- To beat
The strike. A 15-minute contract's strike is set when its window opens. An hourly contract has one market per strike, so the desk starts on the strike nearest the current BTC price and lets you pick another.
- BTC now and the gap
The live Coinbase price and how far it sits above or below the strike. Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks' BRTI, which Coinbase feeds into, so the two track closely but aren't identical.
- Up and Down prices
Up is the Kalshi ask for YES. Down is 100 minus the YES bid, which is what NO costs you. A price in cents reads as the market's chance in percent.
- If you're right, if you're wrong
What your stake buys at the current ask, after Kalshi's taker fee. If you're wrong, the whole stake is gone. That's why the stake is the first thing to decide, not the last.
Real contract. KXBTC15M opens a new window on every quarter hour and settles on the 60-second BRTI average at the close.
Real contract. The nearest open KXBTCD hourly event: pick a strike, and the price, payout and countdown follow it.
Our layout. The last 5 minutes of the live 15-minute window, shaded, with a countdown to when that phase starts.
Our layout. Two or three 15-minute windows in a row. Each leg is a separate trade; a future leg's strike reads "Strike set when the window opens" until Kalshi sets it.
Chart view. 1-minute candles on top of the current 15-minute contract.
Fees on fast markets
A coin flip needs a real edge
Most 15-minute windows trade near 50¢, and that's where Kalshi's fee is highest. The spread and the fee have to be beaten before you make anything.
Cost is $51.00 plus a $1.75 fee (0.07 × 100 × 0.51 × 0.49, rounded up to the cent), so $52.75 in total. They pay $100 if BTC finishes above the strike. You need to be right more than 52.75% of the time just to break even, and selling early adds a second fee.
Fee formula: Kalshi's taker fee, 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent; resting limit orders can pay less. predictionmarketspicks.com calls the spread plus fees on a near-coin-flip contract "a steep, constant drag". TheLines puts the fee at 1¢ to 2¢ per contract.
Sizing
¼ Kelly, capped at 5%
Full Kelly for a contract at price P when you believe the chance is q is (q − P) ÷ (1 − P). We use a quarter of that, never more than 5% of your bankroll, and nothing at all when the number is zero or negative.
Ignores fees, which lower it further. Your chance is a guess; if it's wrong, Kelly oversizes. Source: betstamp on Kelly, which advises never risking more than 5% on one bet.
Take a break between windows
A new window every 15 minutes isn't a reason to trade every one
Fast markets reward slow rules. Decide how many windows you'll trade and your loss limit for the session before the first one, and stop when either runs out. If you lost the last window, sit out the next one.
- Set a money limit for the session before you start, and keep it.
- Never raise the stake to win back the last window.
- Skip any window where you can't say why the price is wrong.
- Walk away after a set number of windows, win or lose.
TheLines' guide to these markets makes the same point: "Take breaks. Avoid rushing into consecutive trades."
21+Only risk what you can afford to lose. This desk is information, not advice, and PM Countdown isn't affiliated with Kalshi. Kalshi users can set funding caps and opt-outs in the Responsible Trading Hub. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Responsible gambling guide