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Open NBA markets
YES prices in cents from Kalshi's public data. Only markets that close after right now are shown, grouped by game.
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Source: Kalshi public market data, series KXNBAGAME, checked for this page on Sep 19, 2026. Prices can be a few seconds old. They are market prices, not our picks and not a recommendation. PM Countdown isn't affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi.
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Check back closer to tip-off. Kalshi's open list sometimes still carries past-dated games, so this board only shows markets whose close time is still ahead.
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Method, not picks
How we approach NBA
What we look at before we write a plan. Every plan still has three lines: the buy price, the sell target and the hold rule.
Late scratches move prices
Rest days and game-time decisions change NBA prices fast. We wait for the final injury report before posting a plan.
Back-to-backs and travel
The second night of a back-to-back is a real factor. We price it in our fair value instead of reacting after the market does.
Runs are not a reason to trade
A 10-0 run can swing the price 20¢ in a few minutes. The sell order we placed before tip-off does the work.
Eighty-two games is a long season
Small stakes and a written record beat a big night. One unit per game, no chasing the late slate.
Before you trade
What to check first
- Check the final injury report before you trade.
- Read the rules for overtime and postponed games.
- Check the gap between bid and ask.
- Know your fee before the order goes in.
Every market on Kalshi has its own rules page. When our checklist and the rules disagree, the rules win.
10 contracts, 22¢ buy, 35¢ sell order
| Buy 10 YES at 22¢ | $2.20 |
|---|---|
| Taker fee0.07 × 10 × 0.22 × 0.78 = $0.12012, rounded up | $0.13 |
| If the 35¢ sell order fills$3.50 back, minus a $0.04 maker fee if Kalshi charges one on that market (0.0175 × 10 × 0.35 × 0.65, rounded up) | +$1.13 |
| If it never trades and winsSettles at $1.00 × 10 = $10.00, minus the $2.33 cost | +$7.67 |
| If it never trades and losesSettles at $0. This is the most you can lose. | −$2.33 |
Fee formulas from Kalshi's fee schedule. Same numbers as our UFC 331 plan. An example, not a recommendation.
Basics
How NBA markets work
One YES per outcome
Each side gets its own YES contract. It pays $1.00 if that outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't.
Price reads as a chance
A 22¢ YES price means the market puts it near 22%. Your edge is the gap between that and your own estimate.
Bid, ask and the gap
You buy at the ask and sell at the bid. The gap between them is a cost you pay every time you go in and out.
Fees move break-even
Kalshi's taker fee is 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent. Resting orders on many markets pay a lower maker rate. Fee schedule
Trade Smart path
Related lessons
Free, every morning
Get the Morning Board
One market a day with the buy price, sell target and hold rule written out, plus a 60-second lesson. Free, and you can leave any time.
21+Only risk what you can afford to lose. Set a money limit before you start, take profits on purpose and stop when you hit your limit. Not financial or betting advice. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER, or call, text or chat 1-800-MY-RESET.
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