Nick Martinez takes the ball in Cleveland with Tampa Bay down two games to one

Three hitters, one line each: a hit, a run or an RBI. Yandy Díaz and Junior Caminero from the top of Tampa Bay’s order, José Ramírez from the top of Cleveland’s.

Yandy Díaz 1+ hits, runs and RBIs at 73¢. A hit, run or RBI in 116 of 153 starts this season (76%), and in 5 of 6 games this postseason. Leads off, and has an .816 OPS against right-handers; Cleveland opens with right-hander Shawn Armstrong.

Junior Caminero 1+ hits, runs and RBIs at 69¢. 126 of 159 starts (79%), the best share on the board, with 42 home runs. Bats fourth tonight, and has a .916 OPS against left-handers, with Cleveland building the game around lefty Joey Cantillo.

José Ramírez 1+ hits, runs and RBIs at 69¢. 88 of 123 starts (72%), then 7 of 8 games this postseason with 11 hits, 8 runs and 8 RBIs. Bats second in Cleveland’s posted lineup.

At the asks the 3 legs cost 34.8% together, so $100 pays $287.73, 2.88x. What beats it: Nick Martinez has held Cleveland scoreless for 13 innings this season, so Ramírez is the leg most at risk. If Cleveland’s bullpen keeps Díaz and Caminero quiet the first time through, the ticket needs them in their late at bats.

Six legs on one game, placed as a single Kalshi combo: $10 pays $48.54. José Ramírez and Yandy Díaz each get a hit, a run or an RBI, Nick Martinez strikes out two, Tampa Bay scores twice, the game has four runs or more, and the Rays do not win by four or more.

José Ramírez 1+ hits, runs and RBIs at 69¢. A hit, run or RBI in 88 of 123 starts this season (72%), then 7 of 8 games this postseason with 11 hits, 8 runs and 8 RBIs. Bats second.

Yandy Díaz 1+ hits, runs and RBIs at 73¢. 116 of 153 starts this season (76%), and 5 of 6 games this postseason. Leads off, with an .816 OPS against right-handers.

Nick Martinez 2+ strikeouts at 65¢. 2 or more strikeouts in 26 of 31 starts this season (84%), and 4 and 5 in his two starts against Cleveland. 109 strikeouts in 180 innings; he struck out 3 in the ALDS Game 3 start a liner cut short after 3 2/3 innings.

No: Tampa Bay wins by over 3.5 runs at 82¢. Pays unless the Rays win by 4 or more. The three games so far were decided by 4, 2 and 1 runs, and the Rays' only win was by 2.

Tampa Bay over 1.5 runs at 77¢. Tampa Bay scored 3, 3 and 2: two or more in every game of the series.

Over 3.5 runs at 82¢. The first three games had 10, 4 and 5 runs. With Tampa Bay at two or more, Cleveland needs two of its own.

Placed as one Kalshi combo, the 6 legs cost 20.6% together (the asks multiply to 17.0%), so $10 pays $48.54, 4.85x. What beats it: Six legs, so one quiet stretch ends it. Martinez has 13 scoreless innings against Cleveland this season; if he does it again, the over 3.5 needs Tampa Bay to score four on its own. And if a liner or a short leash takes him out early, the strikeout leg is the one most at risk. Rocco’s full column.

The Dodgers will not win a third straight title. Milwaukee swept them in the NLCS, 2 to 1, 7 to 4, 6 to 2 and 6 to 4, finishing on Thursday, and the Brewers open the World Series on Friday, Oct. 23 against tonight’s series winner.

That matters off the field. The labor deal between the owners and the players expires at the start of December. In May the owners proposed a salary cap of $245.3 million for 2027 with a floor of $171.2 million, which MLB describes as sharing baseball revenue evenly with the players. The union has said it will never accept a cap.

The Dodgers’ 2026 payroll was about $339 million, second in baseball. The Brewers ranked 19th, the Rays 28th and the Guardians 30th, and the three together came to roughly $317 million, per the Spotrac figures Sportsnaut cited. Neither World Series team will rank higher than 19th in payroll.

For Cleveland, the lowest payroll in the sport is two wins from the World Series, at home tonight. Both sides of the labor fight will use that. Rocco’s tickets do not lean on it: they lean on hitters, Nick Martinez and runs, priced on Kalshi.

José Ramírez has one hit in eleven tries against Nick Martinez, with no walks, one strikeout and no extra base hits. Six of those at bats came this season, when he went 1 for 6 in Martinez’s two scoreless starts against Cleveland. As a group, tonight’s Cleveland lineup is 10 for 48 against Martinez with 3 walks and 9 strikeouts; Steven Kwan, batting just ahead of Ramírez, is 3 for 7 with two extra base hits.

The other side of it: Ramírez has played through a broken hamate and a sore left wrist since June, finished with his lowest OPS since 2015, and has turned it around in October, 11 for 24 with 2 homers since ALDS Game 3. Eleven plate appearances is a small sample, so read it as something to watch rather than a verdict. Rocco’s column on Ramírez against Martinez has the whole case.

Tampa Bay’s hitters have little history against Cleveland’s bullpen: the most is Yandy Díaz’s 17 plate appearances against Tanner Bibee (6 hits, a homer). Against Joey Cantillo, the lefty Cleveland plans to build the game around, no Ray has more than five.