UFC 331 · Fight and odds · Lightweight main card
Arman Tsarukyan vs Maurício Ruffy: Tsarukyan on a five-fight win streak, Ruffy on a two-fight win streak
Every price Kalshi listed on this lightweight bout, captured before it opened, with both men’s records and recent form as they stood. Nothing on this page knows how it ended.
ExclusiveTuna Lead writer, UFC, MMA and boxing · See profile
Tsarukyan to win73¢about −310 at the books
Ruffy to win28¢about +250 at the books
The spread1¢both sides sum to 101¢, 1¢ over a clean 100¢
Before the bell
Tsarukyan was the favourite at 73¢.
- Tsarukyan
- 73¢
- Ruffy
- 28¢
- Scheduled
- 5 rounds
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Card
- Main card
The short version
- Tsarukyan is −310 at the books, priced at 73¢ on Kalshi
- Main card, Lightweight, 5 rounds
- Both sides sum to 101¢, so the spread on this bout was 1¢
- 27 markets were listed on this bout across five Kalshi series
Tale of the tape
#2Arman Tsarukyan"Ahalkalakets"
Georgia · Syndicate MMA
23-3record going in
5'7" tall · 72.5" reach · 29 years old
#7Maurício Ruffy
Brazil · Fighting Nerds
14-2record going in
5'11" tall · 75.0" reach · 30 years old
| Stat | Tsarukyan | Ruffy |
|---|---|---|
| Significant strikes landedVolume on the feet. | 3.78 per min | 3.93 per min |
| Striking accuracyShare of attempted strikes that land. | 50% | 57% |
| Significant strikes absorbedHow much comes back. Lower is better. | 1.77 per min | 3.66 per min |
| Striking defenseShare of opponent strikes avoided. | 55% | 59% |
| Takedowns landedWhere the fight goes if he wants it there. | 3.25 per 15 min | 0.0 per 15 min |
| Takedown defenseShare of opponent takedowns stuffed. | 75% | 88% |
| KnockdownsHow often a punch ends the exchange. | 0.39 per 15 min | 1.42 per 15 min |
| Average fight timeNeither is better. It says how each man's fights end. | 11:42 | 7:56 |
These are career rates from the fighters' official pages, read the day after the event. Most had not been updated with this fight yet, so they describe each man going in, not including this result. Takedown accuracy is left out everywhere: the published figure contradicts the published takedown average on several fighters, so we would rather show nothing than show a number we cannot reconcile.
Where each number came from, and what did not reconcile (18 notes)
- Tsarukyan: Rates are UFC.com's career block, read Sep 21, 2026. Unlike most fighters on this card his block IS updated with this fight. Verified arithmetically: 575 significant strikes landed at 3.78 per minute is 152.1 minutes of Octagon time, and 152.1 divided by the printed 11:42 average is exactly 13 fights, which is his UFC record of 11-2 after this bout. So these numbers include the Ruffy win.
- Tsarukyan: UFC.com prints takedown accuracy as 3 of 95 attempts, or 3%. That is a display fault, not a statistic: the same page's 3.25 takedowns per 15 minutes over 152.1 minutes works out to 33 takedowns, and UFCStats independently prints the same figure as 33 landed from 95 attempts. Takedown accuracy is left off this page everywhere, and this fighter is why the rule exists.
- Tsarukyan: UFCStats prints slightly different rounding on three of the same figures: striking accuracy 49% against UFC.com's 50%, striking defense 54% against 55%, and reach 72" against 72.5". UFC.com is kept as primary because knockdown average and average fight time appear only there. Takedown defense agrees at 75%.
- Tsarukyan: nick is UFC.com's billing, "Ahalkalakets". UFCStats bills him as "The Batman". Both are real; the conflict is not resolved here.
- Tsarukyan: Rank #2 at lightweight and #14 pound-for-pound are UFC.com's rankings as they stood on Sep 21, 2026, two days after the fight, not before it.
- Tsarukyan: The Dariush finish is "KO/TKO Punch" on UFCStats and "KO (knee and punches)" in press coverage. UFCStats is used in the form list.
- Tsarukyan: He lost a freestyle wrestling match to Colby Covington at RAF 11 on Jul 18, 2026. That was not an MMA fight and is not in this record.
- Tsarukyan: debut is null: his first professional fight is not on UFC.com or UFCStats, and nothing here is filled from an unverified source.
- Tsarukyan: The official tabulation records the finish as "KO/TKO" with the detail "Elbow to Head In Clinch", singular. The method shown across this site is "KO (elbows)", which is how the event report and the press wrote it. The conflict is one word and is not resolved here.
- Ruffy: Rates are UFC.com's career block, read Sep 21, 2026, and they include this fight. Verified arithmetically: 249 significant strikes at 3.93 per minute is 63.4 minutes, and 63.4 divided by the printed 07:56 average is exactly 8 fights. He has seven UFC bouts, so the eighth is his Contender Series win over Raimond Magomedaliev on Oct 3, 2023, which UFCStats also carries in his record.
- Ruffy: UFCStats rounds three of the same figures differently: striking accuracy 56% against UFC.com's 57%, takedown defense 87% against 88%. Significant strikes absorbed and striking defense agree exactly. UFC.com is kept as primary because knockdown average and average fight time appear only there.
- Ruffy: Takedown average is a published 0.00 and literal: he has attempted one takedown in his UFC career and did not land it. Takedown accuracy is left off this page.
- Ruffy: stance Orthodox is from UFCStats. UFC.com does not print a stance for him.
- Ruffy: flag: UFC.com prints his place of birth as the state of São Paulo, Brazil, and prints no gym at all. Fighting Nerds comes from the research pack for this card, not from UFC.com.
- Ruffy: nick is null. UFC.com bills him with no nickname.
- Ruffy: Rank #7 at lightweight is UFC.com's ranking as it stood on Sep 21, 2026, two days after the fight, not before it.
- Ruffy: The Saint Denis finish is "SUB Rear Naked Choke" on UFCStats; Wikipedia and parts of the press call it a face crank. UFCStats is used in the form list. The Chandler finish is "KO/TKO Punches" on UFCStats; the press describes a spinning wheel kick followed by punches.
- Ruffy: debut is null: his first professional fight is not on UFC.com or UFCStats.
Recent form
Tsarukyan
- WDan HookerSubmission (arm-triangle) · R2 3:34 · Nov 22, 2025
- WCharles OliveiraDecision (split) · R3 5:00 · Apr 13, 2024
- WBeneil DariushKO (punch) · R1 1:04 · Dec 2, 2023
- WJoaquim SilvaTKO (punches) · R3 3:25 · Jun 17, 2023
- WDamir IsmagulovDecision (unanimous) · R3 5:00 · Dec 17, 2022
- LMateusz GamrotDecision (unanimous) · R5 5:00 · Jun 25, 2022
- WJoel AlvarezTKO (punches) · R2 1:57 · Feb 26, 2022
Ruffy
- WMichael ChandlerKO (punches) · R1 4:29 · Jun 14, 2026
- WRafael FizievTKO (punches) · R2 4:30 · Jan 31, 2026
- LBenoît Saint DenisSubmission (rear-naked choke) · R2 2:56 · Sep 6, 2025
- WKing GreenKO (kick) · R1 2:07 · Mar 8, 2025
- WJames LlontopDecision (unanimous) · R3 5:00 · Nov 16, 2024
- WJamie MullarkeyKO (punches) · R1 4:42 · May 4, 2024
- WRaimond MagomedalievTKO (punches) · R3 4:45 · Oct 3, 2023
Most recent first. This bout is not in these lists.
The full board
Every market Kalshi listed on this fight, at the last price it traded for before the bout opened. 27 in all.
Method of victory
| Market | Price | $100 returns |
|---|---|---|
| Ruffy by submission | 2¢ | $5,000.00 |
| Draw or no contest | 2¢ | $5,000.00 |
| Ruffy by decision | 5¢ | $2,000.00 |
| Tsarukyan by decision | 21¢ | $476.00 |
| Ruffy by KO, TKO or DQ | 23¢ | $434.00 |
| Tsarukyan by KO, TKO or DQ | 24¢ | $416.00 |
| Tsarukyan by submission | 30¢ | $333.00 |
Method of finish
| Market | Price | $100 returns |
|---|---|---|
| Draw or no contest | 2¢ | $5,000.00 |
| Decision (either fighter) | 23¢ | $434.00 |
| Submission (either fighter) | 31¢ | $322.00 |
| KO, TKO or DQ (either fighter) | 48¢ | $208.00 |
Round of victory
| Market | Price | $100 returns |
|---|---|---|
| Ruffy wins in round 5 | 3¢ | $3,333.00 |
| Ruffy wins in round 4 | 4¢ | $2,500.00 |
| Ruffy wins in round 3 | 5¢ | $2,000.00 |
| Tsarukyan wins in round 5 | 6¢ | $1,666.00 |
| Ruffy wins in round 2 | 7¢ | $1,428.00 |
| Tsarukyan wins in round 4 | 9¢ | $1,111.00 |
| Ruffy wins in round 1 | 10¢ | $1,000.00 |
| Tsarukyan wins in round 3 | 13¢ | $769.00 |
| Tsarukyan wins in round 2 | 16¢ | $625.00 |
| Tsarukyan wins in round 1 | 20¢ | $500.00 |
| Decision, draw or no contest | 28¢ | $357.00 |
How long it goes
| Market | Price | $100 returns |
|---|---|---|
| Ends before round 2 | 22¢ | $454.00 |
| Ends before round 3 | 45¢ | $222.00 |
| Ends before round 4 | 62¢ | $161.00 |
| Ends before round 5 | 72¢ | $138.00 |
Goes the distance
| Market | Price | $100 returns |
|---|---|---|
| Goes the distance | 26¢ | $384.00 |
Prices are contract cents. A contract settles at $1.00 if it comes in and $0.00 if it does not, so the price is roughly what the market thought the chance was. Returns are gross of the Kalshi fee.
Sources and method
Fighter records and career rates from the official UFC athlete pages, cross-checked against Sherdog. Moneylines from BestFightOdds and DraftKings. Contract prices are the last trade before this bout opened, from Kalshi one-minute candlesticks on the KXUFCFIGHT, KXUFCMOV, KXUFCMOF, KXUFCROUNDS, KXUFCDISTANCE and KXUFCVICROUND series. We aren’t affiliated with the UFC or Kalshi.