Get freeFree trades
  1. Home
  2. Community
  3. Writers
  4. Exclusive Tuna
PRESS

Lead writer

Exclusive Tuna

UFC / MMA and prediction markets @ExclusiveTunaPM

  • UFC
  • MMA
  • Prediction markets

Pen name A PM Countdown desk writer. Positions disclosed in each column. Sponsor ties: none.

About

Exclusive Tuna is a PM Countdown desk pen name, not a person's real name. The trade desk writes UFC and MMA breakdowns under it, along with pieces on how prediction-market prices move before and during a fight.

Every column follows the same rules: the plan (buy price, sell target, hold rule) is posted before the event, prices come with a source and a time, and each plan is graded on Kalshi's own trade history. Misses stay on the record. The first graded plan on this record was a miss, and it is still there.

How the columns work

  • Opening line first, then the fighter case
  • A written hold rule on every plan
  • Round and method prices only when a book or Kalshi shows them with a date

No star ratings, no units we can't grade, no "lock" language.

On the board

Live and latest

2 open, 24 graded. Every card is a posted plan; the open ones are still live on Kalshi.

  • OpenBTC
    BTC price on Friday, Nov 6 at 5pm EST

    YES $74,000 or above

    82¢exit written

    0¢100¢in 82¢
    Break-even 83.03%
    The note so far

    Featured plan, YES on $74,000 or above for the Friday Nov 6 settle (5 PM EST, 2 PM PST), after the Oct 29 Binance hack. Public on X at 4:57 AM PT Oct 31 with a $5,000 stake at an 83.03c average from Kalshi's dollar-mode order screen (pays $6,021.68). Recorded as a plan at Kalshi's 82c ask (81c bid): Kalshi's public trade tape showed no trade on this line between 8:30 PM PT Oct 30 and the 5:14 AM PT read, so no fill is recorded. At the 82c ask with the taker fee, $5,000 buys 6,021 contracts at an 83.03c average, +$1,021.57 (+20.4%) if right. Break-even 83.03%. Bitcoin $77,466.68 on Coinbase at 5:14 AM PT, 4.7% above the line. Held to settlement, no sell target, no stop. Settles on the CF Benchmarks BRTI sixty-second average before 5 PM Eastern on Nov 6.

    Posted Oct 31, 4:57 AM PT

    Live picklocked 6 days 10 hours before the start
  • OpenBTC
    How low will BTC get in October 2026?

    NO Below $75,000

    78.23¢exit written

    0¢100¢in 78¢
    Break-even 78.24%
    The note so far

    Featured, NO on bitcoin trading below $75,000 at any point in October 2026 (Kalshi KXBTCMINMON, one-touch on a per-minute trimmed mean of the CF Benchmarks BRTI, through 11:59 PM ET Oct 31). $2,000 in Kalshi's dollar mode at a 78.23c average, 2,556.24 contracts, pays $2,556.24 (+$556.24, +27.8%) if the line holds. Posted on X at 3:36 PM PT Oct 1. Bitcoin $84,719 on Coinbase at the 3:42 PM PT read, 11.5% above the line; Kalshi YES 23c bid / 24c ask. September's $75,000 line settled NO after Coinbase printed $74,887.50 for two minutes on Sep 15. Held to settlement, no sell target, no stop.

    Posted Oct 1, 3:36 PM PT

    Live picklocked 30 days 5 hours before the start
  • WinNBA
    Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers

    YES Boston Celtics

    21.00¢100¢

    0¢100¢out 100¢in 21¢
    Underdog 21¢+$329.31 on $88+376.2% riseHeld to $1
    What happened

    Bought before tip-off. Boston rested its regulars for the preseason finale. No Jayson Tatum, no Derrick White, no Payton Pritchard, no Paul George: Sam Cassell coached and five training-camp players started. Philadelphia started all of its stars, Tyrese Maxey, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Jaylen Brown, LeBron James and Joel Embiid. DraftKings went from Boston +154 at the open to +330 at the close, and Kalshi fell from 40¢ at 2 PM PT to 21¢ once the lineup was out. That price treated the 76ers' starters like it was a playoff game. In a preseason finale they play into the third quarter and sit, and then it is Boston's camp roster against Philadelphia's. I bought Boston to win at 21¢: $87.54 for 416.85 contracts that pay $416.85. Philadelphia led 94-84 after three. Embiid and Maxey never came back for the fourth, Brown left with 7:51 to go, and Boston won the fourth 31-21. Ron Harper Jr. tied it at 113 and again at 115 with 51.5 seconds left, and Dillon Mitchell's dunk and three won overtime 10-5. Celtics 125, 76ers 120. Settled at $1.00: +$329.31.

    Posted Oct 16, 4:10 PM PT

    Live picklead time not on file
  • LossNHL
    Los Angeles Kings at Vegas Golden Knights

    YES Los Angeles Kings

    41¢40¢

    0¢100¢out 40¢in 41¢target 55¢
    Underdog 41¢−$10.25 on $100Peak 50¢
    What happened

    Kings to win at Kalshi's 41c ask, $100, with a sell order at 55c. I am not betting the Kings win; I am betting they lead early and the price follows. The Kings scored first in two of their three games and Kalshi took them to 67c and 74c by the first intermission; both leads were gone in the second period. Vegas has trailed after the first period in three of its five games, and in every one the other side's price jumped 12 to 22 cents on the first goal. So the plan is one Kings goal and out before the second period. If 55c has not filled by the first intermission I sell at the intermission bid. No stop. Kings 40c bid / 41c ask at 4:51 PM PT Friday. Graded as the plan says: 55c never traded before the first intermission (high 50c); the first period ended 0-0 at 7:47 PM PT and the Kings were sold at the 40c intermission bid. Held, they reached 67c in overtime and settled at $0 when Vegas won 2-1.

    Posted Oct 9, 4:51 PM PT

    Live picklocked 1 day 2 hours before the start
  • WinNHL
    Toronto Maple Leafs at Vegas Golden Knights

    YES Vegas Golden KnightsLive bet

    52.77¢100¢

    0¢100¢out 100¢in 53¢
    +$224.40 on $251+88.7% riseHeld to $1
    What happened

    Live in-game ticket. Toronto scored three times in the first 8:37 at T-Mobile Arena and Kalshi dropped Vegas to win to 14¢. Vegas answered with three straight: Mark Stone late in the first, then Brett Howden and Jack Eichel's penalty shot in the first four minutes of the second. Nobody scored after that, and regulation ended 3-3. In the break before overtime I bought Vegas to win at a 52.77¢ average: $250.75 for 475.15 contracts that pay $475.15 on a Vegas win in overtime or the shootout. The home team had just erased a three-goal lead and was priced barely above even money for three on three and a shootout. Overtime was scoreless, and Trevor Connelly won it in the fifth round of the shootout. Settled at $1.00: +$224.40.

    Live bet placed Oct 8, 9:45 PM PT, End of regulation, before overtime, TOR 3, VGK 3

    Live pick, taken in playtaken in play, 2 hours 45 minutes after the start
  • WinNBA
    Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors

    NO Golden State wins by over 34.5 pointsLive bet

    48.95¢100¢

    0¢100¢out 100¢in 49¢
    Underdog 49¢+$187.50 on $180+104.1% riseHeld to $1
    What happened

    Lakers can cover this! Golden State led by 36 with two minutes left, past the 34.5 line. This bet says the Lakers cut it to 34 or less by the final buzzer. In at 48.9¢, $179.82 for 367.32 contracts. It pays $367.32 if Golden State wins by 34 or fewer.

    Live bet placed Oct 6, 9:29 PM PT, 1:13 left in the 4th quarter, GSW 124, LAL 92

    Live pick, taken in playtaken in play, 2 hours 29 minutes after the start

In the building

1 event
  • No photo filed

    WNBASun, Sep 20, 2026

    Portland Fire at Los Angeles Sparks

    crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles

    Lisa Leslie statue night. Tailed Ice-Maiden's Los Angeles call from the seats at 3:04 PM PT and held it to the $1.00 settlement.

Games and cards Exclusive Tuna attended in person. Each one links to the page where the plan was posted and graded.

Prediction markets can lose you money fast. Only risk what you can afford to lose. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET. PM Countdown isn't affiliated with Kalshi. All writers