About
Exclusive Tuna is a PM Countdown desk pen name, not a person's real name. The trade desk writes UFC and MMA breakdowns under it, along with pieces on how prediction-market prices move before and during a fight.
Every column follows the same rules: the plan (buy price, sell target, hold rule) is posted before the event, prices come with a source and a time, and each plan is graded on Kalshi's own trade history. Misses stay on the record. The first graded plan on this page is a miss, and it stays at the top.
How the columns work
- Opening line first, then the fighter case
- A written hold rule on every plan
- Round and method prices only when a book or Kalshi shows them with a date
No star ratings, no units we can't grade, no "lock" language.
Latest columns
Graded record
Since Sep 19, 2026- Graded
- 1
- Won
- 0
- Lost
- 1
- Open
- 0
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LossSat, Sep 19, 2026UFC 331 · Chikadze vs Brito
Plan: Buy YES Chikadze at 22¢, sell order at 35¢, hold if 35¢ never trades.
What happened: Peak 31¢ (2:45 to 2:46 PM PT). The 35¢ order never filled. Brito won by KO in round 1, so the hold rule rides to $0.
Net: −$23.21 per 100 contracts, fees included
Graded on Kalshi's public trade history. Append-only: a graded plan is never edited or removed. How we lock and grade
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