UFC 331 · Result and what paid · Women's flyweight early prelims
Casey O'Neill was seconds from being choked out, then armbarred Eduarda Moura
The choke was in deep and her contract printed six cents. Then she got out, and the armbar came.
ExclusiveTuna Lead writer, UFC, MMA and boxing · See profile
Final
O'Neill def. Moura Submission (armbar) · Round 1, 3:22 · Performance of the Night
The takeaway
The favourite won, but the market had him beaten first.
- Result
- O'Neill, Submission (armbar) R1 3:22
- Kalshi close
- 67¢ / 33¢
- Cheapest you could buy
- 17¢ in play
- $100 paid
- $149.00
- Moura at 33¢
- $0
Hindsight, not a pick we made
The ticket that paid
The longest price on this fight that actually came in.
- O'Neill by submission · Kalshi
- 10¢
- $100.00 returns
- $1,000.00
- $200.00 returns
- $2,000.00
Priced from the last trade before the bout opened. Stakes stop at $200 here: a prop market on a single fight is thin, and we have no depth data to say a larger stake could have been filled at this price. Combining it with another leg on the same fight would not multiply cleanly, which is why the ticket builder below refuses those.
The short version
- Casey O'Neill beat Eduarda Moura by Submission (armbar), round 1, 3:22, and took the Performance of the Night
- Early prelims, Women's flyweight, 3 rounds
- Closing line: Casey O'Neill −225, Eduarda Moura +185
- Casey O'Neill closed at 67¢ on Kalshi. The cheapest a buyer could get him while the fight was live was 17¢, and he settled at 100¢
Build a ticket
Every leg below was a real Kalshi market on this fight, at the price it traded for before the bout opened. Tick any combination to see what it would have returned. This is hindsight, not a pick.
Pick a leg to start.
Prices are the last trade before this bout opened, taken from Kalshi one-minute candles. Combining legs multiplies their prices, which assumes they are independent. They are not: a round-one finish and a knockout overlap heavily, so a real book would price that ticket higher than the arithmetic here. Returns are gross of the Kalshi fee, and the larger stakes assume that size was there to buy, which on a thin prop market it often was not.
How it happened
Casey O'Neill beat Eduarda Moura by armbar at 3:22 of round one at UFC 331 on September 19, 2026, at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. Moura had her in an anaconda choke and looked close to finishing it. O'Neill escaped, rolled into the armbar, and took Performance of the Night worth $100,000.
Moura got the fight to the mat and sank in an anaconda choke. For a stretch it looked finished. O'Neill stayed calm, worked her head out of it, and the moment the grip broke she rolled straight through into an armbar. Moura tapped at 3:22 of round one. Sherdog logs the finish at 3:22 and UFC.com's own live article at 3:20. Either way, the escape and the finish were close to one continuous movement.
O'Neill is 28, born in Irvine, Scotland, and fights out of Australia. She came in ranked 12th at flyweight on a two-fight win streak and leaves at 12-2 with three in a row. Moura is 32 and Brazilian. She arrived at 12-2 herself, one loss on her record, and leaves at 12-3 on a two-fight skid. Two near-identical records going in, split by one scramble.
The UFC gave O'Neill one of the two Performance of the Night awards, $100,000, alongside Arman Tsarukyan. That is serious money for an early prelim on a card that was not a pay-per-view. It also puts a ranked flyweight back in the win column three times running, which is the kind of run that starts to matter at 125 pounds.
The official numbers
Official tabulation: O'Neill landed 1 significant strike to Moura’s 3, went for 1 submission and gave up 3:12 of control time.
| O'Neill W | Moura | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Knockdowns | 0 |
| 1 of 4 | Significant strikes | 3 of 7 |
| 25% | Significant strike accuracy | 42% |
| 1 of 4 | Total strikes | 13 of 20 |
| 0 of 0 | Takedowns | 0 of 0 |
| n/a | Takedown accuracy | n/a |
| 1 | Submission attempts | 1 |
| 0 | Reversals | 0 |
| 0:00 | Control time | 3:12 |
| O'Neill | Significant strikes | Moura |
|---|---|---|
| 0 of 3 | To the head | 3 of 7 |
| 0 of 0 | To the body | 0 of 0 |
| 1 of 1 | To the legs | 0 of 0 |
| 1 of 4 | At distance | 1 of 3 |
| 0 of 0 | In the clinch | 0 of 0 |
| 0 of 0 | On the ground | 2 of 4 |
Landed of attempted. Significant strikes exclude short strikes from inside the guard; total strikes include them, which is why a fighter working on the ground can show a much larger total. Control time is time spent in a dominant position. Source: UFCStats official tabulation, read Sep 21, 2026.
Tale of the tape
Australia · Bangtao Muay Thai
5'6" tall · 69.0" reach · 28 years old
Three straight, last loss Dec 2023
Brazil · Fight House
5'6" tall · 67.0" reach · 32 years old
Two straight losses, last win Lauren Murphy in July 2025
| Stat | O'Neill | Moura |
|---|---|---|
| Significant strikes landedVolume on the feet. | 7.89 per min | 2.57 per min |
| Striking accuracyShare of attempted strikes that land. | 52% | 38% |
| Significant strikes absorbedHow much comes back. Lower is better. | 5.53 per min | 2.5 per min |
| Striking defenseShare of opponent strikes avoided. | 58% | 59% |
| Takedowns landedWhere the fight goes if he wants it there. | 1.4 per 15 min | 3.58 per 15 min |
| Takedown defenseShare of opponent takedowns stuffed. | 70% | 80% |
| KnockdownsHow often a punch ends the exchange. | 0.17 per 15 min | 0.0 per 15 min |
| Average fight timeNeither is better. It says how each man's fights end. | 10:44 | 11:52 |
These are career rates from the fighters' official pages, read the day after the event. Most had not been updated with this fight yet, so they describe each man going in, not including this result. Takedown accuracy is left out everywhere: the published figure contradicts the published takedown average on several fighters, so we would rather show nothing than show a number we cannot reconcile.
Where each number came from, and what did not reconcile (1324 notes)
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Recent form
O'Neill
- WEduarda MouraSubmission (armbar) · R1 3:22 · Sep 19, 2026
- WGabriella FernandesKO (punches) · R1 3:11 · Mar 28, 2026
- WLuana SantosDecision (unanimous) · R3 5:00 · Aug 17, 2024
- LAriane LipskiSubmission (armbar) · R2 1:18 · Dec 16, 2023
- LJennifer MaiaDecision (unanimous) · R3 5:00 · Mar 18, 2023
- WRoxanne ModafferiDecision (split) · R3 5:00 · Feb 12, 2022
- WAntonina ShevchenkoTKO (punches) · R2 4:47 · Oct 2, 2021
Moura
- LCasey O'NeillSubmission (armbar) · R1 3:22 · Sep 19, 2026
- LWang CongDecision (unanimous) · R3 5:00 · Feb 7, 2026
- WLauren MurphyDecision (unanimous) · R3 5:00 · Jul 12, 2025
- WVeronica HardyDecision (unanimous) · R3 5:00 · Nov 16, 2024
- LDenise GomesDecision (split) · R3 5:00 · Jun 8, 2024
- WMontserrat RuizTKO (punches) · R2 2:14 · Nov 4, 2023
- WJanaina SilvaSubmission (rear-naked choke) · R1 4:00 · Aug 15, 2023
Most recent first, this fight included.
What the market did
Read this before the table. The lowest trade on this market printed at 6¢, and you will see that number quoted elsewhere. It was not a price you could buy at. It was a seller hitting the bid. The best offer at that moment was 17¢, 11¢ higher, and that is the number this page uses.
KXUFCFIGHT-26SEP19ONEMOU-ONE. The line is the traded price, which is not always a price you could buy at.O'Neill's contract traded at 67c (-225) before the fight, a clear favourite without being priced as a formality. While Moura had the choke sunk in, the cheapest a buyer could have paid was 17c at 22:08Z on September 19. Moura was +185 on the book. She did not get the tap. O'Neill escaped, finished, and settled at 100c. A 50 cent hole, filled inside one round.
Other sites will quote 6c. That was a seller hitting the bid, eleven cents below the best offer, and the widest gap on the card after Shahbazyan. Seventeen cents is still what a market looks like when it has already scored the fight. A choke that is nearly finished and a choke that is finished look the same from outside, and the price cannot tell them apart. That risk runs both directions.
What each stake returned
| Stake | Contracts at 67¢ | Returned | Contracts at 17¢ | Returned |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100.00 | 149 | $149.00 | 588 | $588.00 |
| $200.00 | 298 | $298.00 | 1,176 | $1,176.00 |
| $5,000.00 | 7,462 | $7,462.00 | 29,411 | $29,411.00 94% of the minute |
The right half is the best offer that existed while the fight was live. Getting filled there still depends on size being available, which a candlestick cannot tell you. Where a stake would have been a large share of that minute's entire volume, the table says so rather than printing a number nobody could have collected. Volume on that minute was 31,351 contracts. Returns are gross of the Kalshi trading fee and are hindsight: they show what a price paid once the result was known, not what anyone should stake next.
The bout, on the record
| Result | Casey O'Neill def. Eduarda Moura |
|---|---|
| Method | Submission, armbar |
| Round and time | Round 1, 3:22 |
| Weight class | Women's flyweight, early prelims |
| Pre-fight price | 67c (-225) |
| Cheapest you could buy | 17c, 22:08Z Sept 19 |
| Lowest trade printed | 6c, a seller hitting the bid |
| Settlement | 100c, plus $100k Performance of the Night |
Quick answers
Who won Casey O'Neill vs Eduarda Moura at UFC 331?
Casey O'Neill won by armbar at 3:22 of round one. She escaped an anaconda choke and rolled straight into the submission. The UFC gave her Performance of the Night and a $100,000 bonus for it.
What time did the Casey O'Neill armbar finish come?
We use 3:22 of round one, which is what Sherdog records. UFC.com's own live article listed 3:20. The gap is two seconds and changes nothing about the result, method or round. We flag it rather than smooth it over.
How low did Casey O'Neill's contract trade during the fight?
The lowest trade printed at 6c at 22:08Z on September 19 while Moura had the anaconda choke in, but that was a seller hitting the bid. The cheapest a buyer could have paid was 17c. She had gone into the fight at 67c (-225) and settled at 100c after the armbar.
All 12 bouts and the full UFC 331 results board
Sources and method
Results and scorecards from the official UFC event pages, cross-checked against Sherdog and theScore. Closing moneylines from BestFightOdds and DraftKings, captured after the event. Official striking and grappling numbers from the UFCStats tabulation for this event, read in a browser on Sep 21, 2026 because UFCStats blocks automated fetching. Fighter career rates from the official athlete pages, read the day after the card. Contract prices are Kalshi one-minute candlesticks on the KXUFCFIGHT-26SEP19ONEMOU-ONE market, with prop legs from the KXUFCMOV, KXUFCMOF, KXUFCROUNDS, KXUFCDISTANCE and KXUFCVICROUND series. Where sources disagree on a finish time or a method, both readings are carried on this page rather than resolved silently. We aren't affiliated with the UFC or Kalshi.
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