Edmen Shahbazyan out-pointed Brunno Ferreira at home in Los Angeles

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Every leg below was a real Kalshi market on this fight, at the price it traded for before the bout opened. Tick any combination to see what it would have returned. This is hindsight, not a pick.

Prices are the last trade before this bout opened, taken from Kalshi one-minute candles. Combining legs multiplies their prices, which assumes they are independent. They are not: a round-one finish and a knockout overlap heavily, so a real book would price that ticket higher than the arithmetic here. Returns are gross of the Kalshi fee, and the larger stakes assume that size was there to buy, which on a thin prop market it often was not.

How it happened

Fifteen minutes, no finish, three cards all one way. Two judges scored it 29-28. The third had it 30-27. Shahbazyan took every one. Round-by-round strike and takedown numbers are not publicly retrievable for this bout, so the scorecards are the record we have, and the spread between them says at least one round split the judges.

Shahbazyan is 28 and from Los Angeles, so this was a home fight at Crypto.com Arena. He is now 17-6 and 4-1 in his last five. Ferreira is 33, out of Curitiba, and drops to 15-5. Three straight losses now, which is a hard place to sit at middleweight. The bout closed out the early prelims, the last one before the card stepped up to the prelim block.

Closing the early prelims is a decent slot, and a Los Angeles fighter in a Los Angeles building is an obvious reason to hold it. Shahbazyan delivered the result without the finish, which is roughly what the pre-fight price implied. For Ferreira the maths is harder. Three in a row at 33, in a division that does not wait around, and the next one carries weight.

The official numbers

Official tabulation: Shahbazyan landed 61 significant strikes to Ferreira’s 32, scored 1 knockdown and landed 1 of 3 takedowns.

Landed of attempted. Significant strikes exclude short strikes from inside the guard; total strikes include them, which is why a fighter working on the ground can show a much larger total. Control time is time spent in a dominant position. Source: UFCStats official tabulation, read Sep 21, 2026.

Tale of the tape

These are career rates from the fighters' official pages, read the day after the event. Most had not been updated with this fight yet, so they describe each man going in, not including this result. Takedown accuracy is left out everywhere: the published figure contradicts the published takedown average on several fighters, so we would rather show nothing than show a number we cannot reconcile.

Recent form

Most recent first, this fight included.

What the market did

Read this before the table. The lowest trade on this market printed at 43¢, and you will see that number quoted elsewhere. It was not a price you could buy at. It was a seller hitting the bid. The best offer at that moment was 61¢, 18¢ higher, and that is the number this page uses.

Shahbazyan was priced at 63c (-185) going in. The cheapest a buyer could have paid while the fight was live was 61c at 22:40Z on September 19, two cents under his pre-fight number. Ferreira was +154 on the book. There was no real move in this one. All three cards came back for Shahbazyan and the contract settled at 100c.

Other sites will quote 43c. That was a seller hitting the bid, eighteen cents below the best offer, the widest gap on the card, and it came in the thinnest minute of any bout with 24,805 contracts traded. 43 cents was never reachable. The in-play story here is not a 20 cent slide. It is two cents of movement in a fight nobody was repricing.

What each stake returned

The bout, on the record

Quick answers

Sources and method

Results and scorecards from the official UFC event pages, cross-checked against Sherdog and theScore. Closing moneylines from BestFightOdds and DraftKings, captured after the event. Official striking and grappling numbers from the UFCStats tabulation for this event, read in a browser on Sep 21, 2026 because UFCStats blocks automated fetching. Fighter career rates from the official athlete pages, read the day after the card. Contract prices are Kalshi one-minute candlesticks on the KXUFCFIGHT-26SEP19SHAFER-SHA market, with prop legs from the KXUFCMOV, KXUFCMOF, KXUFCROUNDS, KXUFCDISTANCE and KXUFCVICROUND series. Where sources disagree on a finish time or a method, both readings are carried on this page rather than resolved silently. We aren't affiliated with the UFC or Kalshi.