UFC Vegas 121 · Main event · Result and what the market did
Rosas Jr. def. Barcelos: we sold at 71¢ before his price fell to 3¢
Raul Rosas Jr. stopped Raoni Barcelos 1:38 into the fifth round, after Sherdog’s scorers gave Barcelos rounds two, three and four. Our sell order at 71¢ filled in the first round and the plan closed for +$14.53. His Kalshi contract went on to touch 79¢ around the end of that round, then fell for 16 minutes, through the underdog side and down to 3¢. Then he came back and won, and a ticket held to the end paid $49.93 more. Here are both halves of that night.
ExclusiveTuna Lead writer, UFC, MMA and boxing · See profile
Final
Rosas Jr. def. Barcelos TKO · Round 5, 1:38 · Fight of the Night
Our position, graded
Bought at 59¢, sold at 71¢ in round 1. Won.
- Entry
- 59¢
- Sold
- 71¢ at 7:12 PM PT
- Net after fees
- +$14.53
- Return
- +14.6%
- His high in the fight
- 79¢
- His low in the fight
- 3¢
- If held to the end
- +$64.46
The result
Raul Rosas Jr. beat Raoni Barcelos by TKO at 1:38 of the fifth round in the UFC Vegas 121 main event at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday, September 26, 2026. He won the first round on Sherdog’s cards, lost the next three while Barcelos took him down, took his back and threatened submissions, then finished it with a trip takedown that left Barcelos limp on the mat. On Kalshi his contract went from 59¢ before the fight to 3¢ at its lowest and settled at $1. The bout won Fight of the Night.
The full bout record
| Winner | Raul Rosas Jr. |
|---|---|
| Loser | Raoni Barcelos |
| Method | TKO. Sherdog lists KO (slam), Yahoo Sports TKO (slam), Real Combat Media TKO (referee stoppage) |
| Round and time | Round 5 of 5, 1:38 |
| Weight | Bantamweight, 135 lb |
| Bonus | Fight of the Night, both fighters (Yahoo Sports) |
| Card | UFC Vegas 121 main event, Meta Apex, Las Vegas, Sep 26, 2026 |
| Kalshi before the fight | 58¢ to 59¢ on Rosas Jr. |
| Kalshi in the fight | High 79¢, low 3¢, settled at $1 |
Our plan, graded
Graded: won at the 71¢ sell order$100.00 on YES Raul Rosas Jr. at 59¢, written to the ledger at 2:02 PM PT on fight day: 164 contracts for $99.54 with the entry fee inside the stake. A sell order rested at 71¢, the desk’s rule of twenty per cent over entry, with hold to settlement as the fallback if it never traded there. It traded there at 7:12 PM PT, about a minute into round one, and the position closed. Everything that happened after that, the slide, the 3¢ low and the comeback, happened without us in it.
How it graded, after both Kalshi fees
The contract moved 20.3 per cent. The plan netted 14.6 per cent.
On the ledger as 2026-09-26-26sep26rosbar-rosas-jr-exclusive-tuna. Open the ledger · Read the case as it was written before the fight
Round by round, with the price
Who Sherdog’s scorers gave each round, and where the Rosas Jr. contract traded during it. A round here includes the minute break after it.
| Round | Sherdog scored it | High | Low | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Round 1 | Rosas Jr. | 75¢ | 59¢ | 69¢ |
| Round 2 | Barcelos | 79¢ | 47¢ | 48¢ |
| Round 3 | Barcelos | 67¢ | 20¢ | 37¢ |
| Round 4 | Barcelos | 47¢ | 3¢ | 14¢ |
| Round 5 | Finish | 99¢ | 12¢ | 99¢ |
Kalshi one-minute candles. Rounds are matched to minutes by our clock, worked back from the official finish at 1:38 of round 5, so a price at the very edge of a round can belong to the minute either side. Round scores are Sherdog’s; the fight ended inside the distance and no official cards were read.
Round 1: Rosas Jr.’s round, and our order fills
Rosas Jr. opened with leg kicks and the two traded one-twos at a fast pace. Barcelos landed uppercuts and overhands and got a trip takedown, but Rosas Jr. fired hammerfists and got back up. All three of Sherdog’s scorers gave him the round, 10-9. The market went with him: the contract ran from 59¢ to a high of 75¢ in the round, and our sell order at 71¢ filled at 7:12 PM PT, about a minute into the round.
Round 2: Barcelos takes over, and Rosas Jr. becomes the underdog
Barcelos went to the body and head with both hands while Rosas Jr. worked his jab and straight left. Then Barcelos drove through a takedown and landed right hands from the top. Sherdog scored it for Barcelos on all three cards. After touching 79¢ around the bell that ended round one, the contract slid all round and closed at 48¢ at 7:22 PM PT, the first time in the fight it closed on the underdog side of 50¢.
Round 3: Barcelos takes the back with a body triangle
Barcelos swept him from the clinch and took his back with a body triangle, the most dangerous spot of the fight so far. Rosas Jr. reversed, landed ground and pound and worked to half guard, but Barcelos scrambled up, clinched and swept him again. Barcelos’s round on every Sherdog card. The price swung hard through it, from a low of 20¢ to a high of 67¢, and ended the round at 37¢.
Round 4: The neck crank, and a price of 3¢
Rosas Jr. came out cut across the nose, Barcelos with his left eye swelling shut. Barcelos landed two takedowns, hit right hands from the top and went looking for submissions, a neck crank among them. Sherdog’s three scorers had him up three rounds to one. This is where the contract bottomed out: it traded as low as 3¢, closed at 13¢ two minutes running, and ended the round at 14¢. Almost 200,000 contracts changed hands in the two minutes it was trading at 3¢ and 4¢.
Round 5: The trip, and the finish at 1:38
Barcelos caught a takedown in the fifth. Rosas Jr. scrambled up throwing punches, they clinched, and he tripped Barcelos to the mat. Barcelos landed awkwardly and went limp, and the fight was stopped at 1:38. In that one minute the contract went from 23¢ to 99¢ and 349,675 contracts traded, the busiest minute of the night.
What the market did
KXUFCFIGHT-26SEP26ROSBAR-ROS, 7:05 PM to 7:40 PM PT. The line is each minute’s last trade and the grey bars are each minute’s high and low. Shaded bands are rounds by our clock.Before the bell the Rosas Jr. contract sat at 58¢ to 59¢ for the better part of an hour. It went up as soon as the fight started and touched 75¢ in round one. Our order at 71¢ filled at 7:12 PM PT. The best print of the night came a few minutes later, 79¢ around the bell that ended the round, though the best bid in that minute was 71¢, so a seller would have been lucky to get it.
Then Barcelos went to work. The contract fell through round two and closed at 48¢ at 7:22 PM PT, the first close of the fight on the underdog side. It never closed above 50¢ again except for one minute in round three, and from there it went to 20¢ in round three and 3¢ in round four. From the 79¢ high to the 3¢ low took 16 minutes, a fall of 76¢ on a fighter who had just won the first round. At the bottom, a contract on the man who would win the fight could be bought for 3¢ and returned $1, about 33 times the price.
The finish took one minute to price. The contract was 23¢ when the fifth round was under way and 99¢ a minute later, with 349,675 contracts trading in that minute, more than any other in the fight. It settled at $1.
Selling early or holding: what each moment was worth
Holding would have paid more, and it is worth saying plainly. 164 contracts settling at $1 each return $164.00 against $99.54 all in, a net of +$64.46. That is $49.93 more than the +$14.53 our sell order took.
| If the 164 contracts were sold at | Price | Back after fee | Net on $99.54 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our sale, round 1 What happened | 71¢ | $114.07 | +$14.53 |
| His high, end of round 1 Hindsight | 79¢ | $127.65 | +$28.11 |
| End of round 2 Hindsight | 48¢ | $75.85 | −$23.69 |
| End of round 3 Hindsight | 37¢ | $58.00 | −$41.54 |
| The low, round 4 Hindsight | 3¢ | $4.58 | −$94.96 |
| End of round 4 Hindsight | 14¢ | $21.57 | −$77.97 |
| Held to settlement Hindsight | $1 | $164.00 | +$64.46 |
Only the first row happened. The others are what the same position would have fetched at that print, after Kalshi’s exit fee, and a print is not always a price you could sell at.
Here is what holding asked of you. By the end of round two the position was down about $24. In round four, at the 3¢ print, the same contracts were worth $4.58, a loss of $94.96 after fees, while Barcelos was on top hunting a neck crank. Anyone still holding then had no way of knowing round five was coming, and on most nights a fighter at 3¢ does not get up.
The sell order is a decision made before the fight, when nobody is scared. It took the twenty per cent and gave up the rest. On this night the rest was worth $49.93. On the nights the comeback never comes, the same rule keeps the whole stake. We would set the same order again.
Quick answers
Who won Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos?
Raul Rosas Jr. beat Raoni Barcelos by TKO at 1:38 of round 5 in the UFC Vegas 121 main event on September 26, 2026. Sources label it slightly differently: Sherdog lists KO (slam), Yahoo Sports TKO (slam) and Real Combat Media TKO (referee stoppage).
What was Rosas Jr.'s highest Kalshi price during the fight?
79 cents, traded around the bell that ended round 1, when he had just won the round on Sherdog's cards. The best bid in that minute was 71 cents. From that high the contract fell for 16 minutes, to a low of 3 cents in round 4.
How low did Rosas Jr.'s Kalshi price go during the fight?
It traded as low as 3 cents in round 4, while Barcelos was on top threatening submissions, and closed at 13 cents two minutes in a row. It was 59 cents before the fight, touched 79 cents around the end of round 1 and settled at $1.
When did Rosas Jr. become the underdog?
Late in round 2. His contract closed at 48 cents at 7:22 PM PT, the first close under 50 cents in the fight, after Barcelos won the round with a takedown and right hands from the top.
Did ExclusiveTuna's plan on this fight win?
Yes. The plan bought Rosas Jr. at 59 cents with a sell order at 71 cents. The order filled at 7:12 PM PT, about a minute into round 1, for +$14.53 after both Kalshi fees on $99.54 at risk, a return of 14.6 per cent.
What would holding to the end have paid?
The same 164 contracts held to settlement would have returned $164.00, a net of +$64.46 after the entry fee, which is $49.93 more than the sell order took. Holding also meant sitting through a 3 cent low in round 4.
Who won Fight of the Night at UFC Vegas 121?
Raul Rosas Jr. and Raoni Barcelos, for the main event, per Yahoo Sports.
Sources and method
- Contract prices. Kalshi public trade API, one-minute candlesticks on KXUFCFIGHT-26SEP26ROSBAR-ROS, read Oct 1, 2026
- Round by round and round scoring. Sherdog play by play and its three scorers
- Method. Sherdog, Yahoo Sports and Real Combat Media, which label the stoppage differently
- Bonus. Yahoo Sports, UFC Vegas 121 results and bonuses
- The plan and its fill. Our public ledger, entry 2026-09-26-26sep26rosbar-rosas-jr-exclusive-tuna
Times are Pacific. Fees are Kalshi’s published taker fee, paid in and out of the stake, the way every figure on this site counts it. We are not affiliated with the UFC or with Kalshi, and nothing here is a recommendation to trade.