UFC 331 · Fight and odds · Light heavyweight main card
Alonzo Menifield vs Iwo Baraniewski: Menifield on the back of a win, Baraniewski on a nine-fight win streak
Every price Kalshi listed on this light heavyweight bout, captured before it opened, with both men’s records and recent form as they stood. Nothing on this page knows how it ended.
ExclusiveTuna Lead writer, UFC, MMA and boxing · See profile
Before the bell
Baraniewski was the favourite at 73¢.
- Menifield
- 27¢
- Baraniewski
- 73¢
- Scheduled
- 3 rounds
- Weight class
- Light heavyweight
- Card
- Main card
The short version
- Baraniewski is −245 at the books, priced at 73¢ on Kalshi
- Main card, Light heavyweight, 3 rounds
- The two captured prices paired at 100¢ exactly, so there was no spread to pay on this bout
- 20 markets were listed on this bout across five Kalshi series
Tale of the tape
United States
6'0" tall · 76.0" reach · 38 years old
Poland · Aligatores Fight Club
6'0" tall · 73.5" reach · 27 years old
| Stat | Menifield | Baraniewski |
|---|---|---|
| Significant strikes landedVolume on the feet. | 3.84 per min | 11.35 per min |
| Striking accuracyShare of attempted strikes that land. | 53% | 58% |
| Significant strikes absorbedHow much comes back. Lower is better. | 3.81 per min | 8.65 per min |
| Striking defenseShare of opponent strikes avoided. | 51% | 53% |
| Takedowns landedWhere the fight goes if he wants it there. | 0.48 per 15 min | 0.0 per 15 min |
| Takedown defenseShare of opponent takedowns stuffed. | 78% | 100% |
| KnockdownsHow often a punch ends the exchange. | 0.77 per 15 min | 20.27 per 15 min |
| Average fight timeNeither is better. It says how each man's fights end. | 7:24 | 0:56 |
No edge is marked on the rate stats here. Baraniewski has so little total cage time that the per-minute and per-15-minute figures are extrapolations rather than tendencies. The numbers are real and published. What they are not is a sample.
These are career rates from the fighters' official pages, read the day after the event. Most had not been updated with this fight yet, so they describe each man going in, not including this result. Takedown accuracy is left out everywhere: the published figure contradicts the published takedown average on several fighters, so we would rather show nothing than show a number we cannot reconcile.
Where each number came from, and what did not reconcile (17 notes)
- Menifield: UFC.com stat block is PRE-UFC 331: his athlete page still lists the Baraniewski bout as upcoming and his record as 18-6-1. The eight numeric stats below therefore exclude this fight.
- Menifield: All eight numeric stats (slpm, acc, sapm, sdef, td, tdd, kd, avg) are published on ufc.com/athlete/alonzo-menifield. This is the only one of the four fighters with a large sample, roughly 16 UFC fights at a 7:24 average.
- Menifield: rank 14 is the light heavyweight ranking shown on his UFC.com page, which is the pre-fight ranking given the page had not yet been updated.
- Menifield: born, and the post-fight record 19-6-1, are not on UFC.com. Date of birth taken from Sherdog and Wikipedia (both October 18, 1987); post-fight record from Sherdog and the verified facts file.
- Menifield: stance is null: not published by UFC.com, Sherdog or Wikipedia. ESPN's profile is JavaScript-rendered and returned no content.
- Menifield: flag carries country only. UFC.com lists no gym for him, and the two secondary sources conflict: Wikipedia says Fortis MMA, Sherdog says Saekson Muay Thai. Not resolved, so no team is asserted.
- Menifield: fin/ko/sub/dec are post-fight. Wikipedia's pre-fight breakdown was 11 KO, 3 sub, 4 dec; the split-decision win over Baraniewski makes it 5 dec.
- Menifield: Takedown accuracy deliberately omitted.
- Baraniewski: UFC.com stat block is PRE-UFC 331: his athlete page still lists the Menifield bout as upcoming and his record as 9-0-0. The numeric stats exclude the 15 minutes he fought on Sep 19.
- Baraniewski: EXTREMELY THIN SAMPLE, and the rates are wild because of it. The stats cover 3 minutes 42 seconds of total cage time across four fights: three UFC bouts (1:29, 0:28, 1:25) plus his Contender Series win (0:20). Verified arithmetically: 3:42 over 4 fights gives the printed 00:56 average; slpm 11.35 over 3:42 gives exactly 42 significant strikes, matching the page's own by-target counts of 33 head, 4 body, 5 leg; kd 20.27 per 15 minutes over 3:42 gives exactly 5 knockdowns.
- Baraniewski: kd of 20.27 and slpm of 11.35 are real published UFC.com figures, not errors, but they are per-15-minute extrapolations from under four minutes of fighting and should not be presented as a rate anyone sustains.
- Baraniewski: td 0.00 and tdd 100% likewise rest on almost no attempts.
- Baraniewski: All eight numeric stats are published. None were filled from another site.
- Baraniewski: born and stance are not on UFC.com. Date of birth from Sherdog and Wikipedia (both November 20, 1998); stance Orthodox from Wikipedia.
- Baraniewski: ht: UFC.com prints 72.50 inches, but Sherdog and Wikipedia both give 6'0". Height taken from the secondary sources per the source hierarchy.
- Baraniewski: Post-fight record 9-1 from Sherdog and the verified facts file; Wikipedia had not been updated.
- Baraniewski: Takedown accuracy deliberately omitted.
Recent form
Menifield
- WZhang MingyangTKO (punches) · R1 4:15 · May 30, 2026
- LVolkan OezdemirKO (knee and punches) · R1 1:27 · Nov 22, 2025
- WOumar SyDecision (unanimous) · R3 5:00 · Jun 14, 2025
- WJulius WalkerDecision (split) · R3 5:00 · Feb 22, 2025
- LAzamat MurzakanovKO (punches) · R2 3:18 · Aug 3, 2024
- LCarlos UlbergKO (punches) · R1 0:12 · May 11, 2024
Baraniewski
- WJunior TafaTKO (leg kick and punches) · R1 1:25 · Jun 6, 2026
- WAusten LaneTKO (punches) · R1 0:28 · Mar 21, 2026
- WIbo AslanKO (punches) · R1 1:29 · Dec 6, 2025
- WMahamed AlyKO (punches) · R1 0:20 · Sep 16, 2025
- WKamil StachuraTKO (elbows and punches) · R1 3:02 · Mar 14, 2025
- WSylwester BorysTKO (punches) · R1 3:01 · Nov 22, 2024
Most recent first. This bout is not in these lists.
The full board
Every market Kalshi listed on this fight, at the last price it traded for before the bout opened. 20 in all.
Method of victory
| Market | Price | $100 returns |
|---|---|---|
| Draw or no contest | 2¢ | $5,000.00 |
| Menifield by submission | 6¢ | $1,666.00 |
| Baraniewski by submission | 8¢ | $1,250.00 |
| Baraniewski by decision | 8¢ | $1,250.00 |
| Menifield by decision | 9¢ | $1,111.00 |
| Menifield by KO, TKO or DQ | 16¢ | $625.00 |
| Baraniewski by KO, TKO or DQ | 58¢ | $172.00 |
Method of finish
| Market | Price | $100 returns |
|---|---|---|
| Submission (either fighter) | 12¢ | $833.00 |
| Decision (either fighter) | 15¢ | $666.00 |
| KO, TKO or DQ (either fighter) | 74¢ | $135.00 |
Round of victory
| Market | Price | $100 returns |
|---|---|---|
| Menifield wins in round 3 | 2¢ | $5,000.00 |
| Baraniewski wins in round 3 | 3¢ | $3,333.00 |
| Menifield wins in round 2 | 5¢ | $2,000.00 |
| Menifield wins in round 1 | 14¢ | $714.00 |
| Decision, draw or no contest | 14¢ | $714.00 |
| Baraniewski wins in round 2 | 15¢ | $666.00 |
| Baraniewski wins in round 1 | 49¢ | $204.00 |
How long it goes
| Market | Price | $100 returns |
|---|---|---|
| Ends before round 2 | 58¢ | $172.00 |
| Ends before round 3 | 77¢ | $129.00 |
Goes the distance
| Market | Price | $100 returns |
|---|---|---|
| Goes the distance | 16¢ | $625.00 |
Prices are contract cents. A contract settles at $1.00 if it comes in and $0.00 if it does not, so the price is roughly what the market thought the chance was. Returns are gross of the Kalshi fee.
Sources and method
Fighter records and career rates from the official UFC athlete pages, cross-checked against Sherdog. Moneylines from BestFightOdds and DraftKings. Contract prices are the last trade before this bout opened, from Kalshi one-minute candlesticks on the KXUFCFIGHT, KXUFCMOV, KXUFCMOF, KXUFCROUNDS, KXUFCDISTANCE and KXUFCVICROUND series. We aren’t affiliated with the UFC or Kalshi.