Bitcoin has to fall 11.5% and stay there long enough to count. The plan: NO on $75,000 in October.

Will bitcoin fall below $75,000 in October 2026?

What September proved about this line

Kalshi ran the same question for September, with the same $75,000 line. Bitcoin traded under it and the line still settled NO.

The wick. On September 15, the day the crypto market structure bill failed in the Senate and the day before the Fed hiked, bitcoin printed $74,887.50 on Coinbase at 11:49 AM Pacific. Two one-minute candles traded under $75,000; none closed under it.²

The settlement. Kalshi’s September market, KXBTCMINMON-BTC-26SEP30-7500000, opened September 1, traded 182,090 contracts and was finalized NO on October 1.¹ The trimmed mean drops the top and bottom 20% of the data before averaging, so a two-minute flush is mostly trimmed away. To lose, this position needs bitcoin to trade below $75,000 long enough for the average to follow it there.

The bounce. From that low bitcoin ran about 17% to $87,397 on September 21, helped by about $2.4 billion of spot ETF inflows that week, the largest since October 2025.⁵

The case for NO

1. The cushion is 11.5%, and support is stacked above the line. Analysts name $82,000 as first support and $80,000 as major support, then $77,000 to $78,000. Glassnode puts its on-chain “True Market Mean” at $77,200, above the line.⁵⁶
2. Leverage has already been flushed. Bitcoin futures open interest is about $53 billion, the lowest since March, and funding was flat at 0.000% on September 28. A market with less borrowed money in it has less to liquidate on the way down.⁶
3. Options price it about where Kalshi does. At-the-money implied volatility for the October 30 expiry was about 35%. Fed into the standard touch formula, that is about a 23% chance of trading 11.5% lower within a month, the same as Kalshi’s 23¢ to 24¢. The NO is bought close to fair, not cheap, and the settlement rule is extra room the formula does not count.⁶
4. October history leans the right way. Ten of the thirteen Octobers from 2013 to 2025 finished higher, and none since 2014 traded 11.5% below its opening price. Even October 2025’s record liquidation day, a $19 billion flush, left the month only 9.2% under its open.⁷
5. The rate scare has eased. CME FedWatch had an October hike at 70.9% a week ago and 34.9% on October 1, after a softer core PCE reading.⁵

The tweet that went with it said it in one line: NO on bitcoin dropping below $75,000 this month. The post on X.

The plan, posted before it settles

1. Hold to $1.00. If the line holds all month, every contract pays a dollar with no exit fee: 21.77¢ over the 78.23¢ average, or 27.8%.
2. No sell target. The upside is capped at 21.77¢ a contract and most of it arrives late in the month, as time runs out on the YES side. Selling early gives that back.
3. No stop. The risk was fixed at entry: $2,000. A stop on a month-long one-touch sells the flush that the trimmed mean may never register, which is exactly what happened in September.
4. Any add is its own pick. A sharp drop toward $77,000 that snaps back would make NO cheaper. If more is bought, it is posted separately with its own time and price, and this position is graded exactly as written.

The arithmetic

A $2,000 order walks the book above the 77¢ ask, which is why the average is 78.23¢. In dollar mode Kalshi folds its fee into that average, so there is no separate entry fee and settlement is fee-free.³ The honest read: you are paid 21.77¢ to risk 78.23¢, so the line has to hold better than about four months in five to be worth it.

It is on Exclusive Tuna’s record next to every other call, and it follows this week’s pick, YES on $81,000 for Oct 2, as the featured pick.

What the market says right now

Asks read from Kalshi’s public API at 3:42 PM PT on October 1.¹ The live position box above updates itself; this table does not.

Our line is the busiest on the ladder this early in the month: 6,011 contracts had traded on $75,000 by the read, with 5,565 open. The ladder is smooth from 59¢ at $80,000 down to 4¢ at $65,000, which is what a month-long touch market looks like when nobody expects a crash but everybody remembers June’s.

The October calendar that can move it

Dates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federal Reserve calendars, and CoinCentral on Mt. Gox, read October 1.⁵ The last four days of the month carry the most scheduled risk, and that is when a NO has the least time left to recover from a drop.

How often bitcoin falls 11.5% in a month

More often than Octobers suggest. Over the last twelve months, four calendar months traded more than 11.5% below their opening price on Coinbase: November 2025 (−26.5%), January 2026 (−13.5%), February 2026 (−23.7%) and June 2026 (−21.2%). Counting every 30-day window from a daily close over the same year, 36% saw a low at least 11.4% lower.²

But not in recent Octobers. Only 2013 and 2014 fell that far inside October. 2019 came closest since, at about −10.3%.⁷

That gap is the whole debate. On 2026’s own volatility, a touch looks closer to one in three; on October’s history and today’s options, closer to one in five. The trimmed-mean rule pushes the real number below either, because a spot touch is not a settlement touch.

The case against our own position

1. It was down there two weeks ago. September’s low was $74,887.50. The line held on a technicality of the settlement rule, not because buyers defended $75,000 for long.
2. 2026 is a high-volatility year. Three months this year have already fallen 13% or more from their open, and the June low was about $58,000.
3. Thin air below the line. Glassnode puts short-term holders’ average cost at $73,300 and flagged thin bids under price, with a gap from $61,000 to $68,000. A break under $77,000 can run.⁶
4. The flows cooled. Daily ETF inflows fell from $999 million to $135 million inside a week, then turned to a $148.7 million outflow on September 30. The 10-year Treasury yield is above 5%.⁵
5. The scheduled risk is back-loaded. The Fed on October 28, PCE and GDP on the 29th and the Mt. Gox deadline on the 31st all land in the last four days, when one bad day is enough.
6. Options price it fairly, not cheaply. At 35% implied volatility the NO is worth about 77¢; we paid 78.23¢. The case for buying is the settlement rule and the support stack, not a mispriced number.

What actually settles this market

Kalshi’s rule, read October 1: the market resolves YES if bitcoin’s price is ever below $75,000.00 after issuance and through 11:59 PM Eastern on October 31, 2026. The price is not a single trade. At each minute Kalshi computes a settlement value from CF Benchmarks’ minute-by-minute Bitcoin Real-Time Index, removes the top and bottom 20% of the data and averages the rest; if that trimmed mean is below the line in any minute, YES wins. The market can close early the moment that happens. If CF Benchmarks data is missing at expiry, the strike resolves NO.¹

Note the clock. 11:59 PM Eastern on October 31 is 8:59 PM Pacific. Every other time on this site is Pacific; the market is named in Eastern because Kalshi names it that way.

PM Countdown is not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice, and we are not licensed advisers. Prediction markets can lose you money fast.

Updates

This position is open until October 31 or until the line is hit. Every test of it goes here, newest first, with the time. Nothing above this section is rewritten to match.

1. Thu Oct 1, 3:36 PM PT Posted

   NO on bitcoin below $75,000 in October at a 78.23¢ average, $2,000 in Kalshi’s dollar mode, 2,556.24 contracts, $2,556.24 if right. Posted on X. Bitcoin $84,719 on Coinbase at the 3:42 PM read; Kalshi 23¢ bid, 24¢ ask on YES.

Quick answers

Will bitcoin fall below $75,000 in October 2026?

The market says probably not. At 3:42 PM Pacific on October 1, Kalshi’s $75,000 line for October was 23¢ bid and 24¢ ask on YES, about a 23% to 24% chance, with bitcoin at $84,719 on Coinbase. Options at about 35% implied volatility put the chance of a touch near 23% too.

How does Kalshi decide if bitcoin went below $75,000?

Not on a single print. Each minute Kalshi computes a trimmed mean from CF Benchmarks’ Bitcoin Real-Time Index, dropping the top and bottom 20% of the data, and the market resolves YES only if that trimmed mean is below $75,000 in some minute before 11:59 PM Eastern on October 31.

Did bitcoin go below $75,000 in September 2026?

On Coinbase, for two minutes: it printed $74,887.50 at 11:49 AM Pacific on September 15 and no one-minute candle closed below $75,000. Kalshi’s September $75,000 line still settled NO, because the trimmed mean never got there.

What does the NO position make if it is right?

$2,000 at a 78.23¢ average buys 2,556.24 contracts in Kalshi’s dollar mode, fees included in the average. If bitcoin’s trimmed mean stays at or above $75,000 all month, each pays $1: $2,556.24, a profit of $556.24, or 27.8%. If it touches, the whole $2,000 is lost.

What are the big dates for bitcoin in October 2026?

The September jobs report on October 2, CPI on October 14, PPI on October 15, the Fed decision on October 28 and September PCE plus the first Q3 GDP estimate on October 29. Mt. Gox’s repayment deadline is October 31, the contract’s last day.

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