Bitcoin · Satoshi watch
The markets say probably not. On Oct 6, 2026 both venues priced a move at about 5%. Satoshi Nakamoto is credited with about 1.096 million BTC across some 22,000 addresses, and by Arkham’s count none of it has been sent anywhere since July 2010. Both markets settle the same way: a Yes needs Arkham’s Satoshi page to show coins going out before the deadline.
Prices checked · refreshed every 6 hours
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The holdings
No one can prove which coins are Satoshi’s. What exists is a fingerprint in how the first year of blocks was mined.
~1.096M BTC
Arkham’s figure, from coins mined in 2009 and 2010. That is about 5.5% of the 20.09 million mined so far.
~22,000
Each early block paid its 50 BTC reward to its own address. That is why no single Satoshi address shows up among the 100 largest.
July 2010
Arkham puts Satoshi’s last transaction there. The last forum post came on Dec 12, 2010, and a private email in April 2011 said Satoshi had “moved on to other things.”
The fingerprint is called the Patoshi pattern. Sergio Demian Lerner described it in April 2013 and put Satoshi’s share near 1 million BTC; his 2019 update counted about 22,000 blocks. A 2014 post on Satoshi’s old P2P Foundation account is widely doubted, so we don’t count it.
Side by side
Both ask whether any of Satoshi’s coins move. Both settle on the same Arkham page.
Kalshi
Open it on KalshiIf any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham's Intel Explorer shows an 'Outflow' or 'Swaps' transaction before January 01, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
Open it on PolymarketThis market will resolve to "Yes" if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham's Intel Explorer shows an "Outflow" or "Swaps" transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Prices are a snapshot from our reader, refreshed every 6 hours, not a live quote. A Yes at 5¢ pays $1 if the coins move in the window; you can lose the whole 5¢.
Try it, no money
The same calculator as our sports pages: pick a side, then $100, $2,000, $5,000 or your own stake. It uses Kalshi’s prices from our last read, and nothing here places a trade.
Kalshi only: Polymarket’s market is in the table above, and its fees work differently, so we don’t model it here. Responsible gambling
Settlement
One gap to know: Kalshi’s contract terms document names more sources than its market page, which names Arkham alone, and neither venue defines Outflow or Swaps beyond Arkham’s own labels. Read Kalshi’s contract terms
False alarms
Early coins wake up every year or so. None of these was tied to Satoshi, and the markets barely moved.
250 BTC from five 2009 wallets. Mined in late January and early February 2009. Reporting at the time found no concrete evidence they were Satoshi’s.
150 BTC from a 2009 miner. Part of a wallet holding 4,000 BTC mined in 2009, with no Satoshi label.
About 600 BTC mined in March 2010. Whale Alert, which flagged it, said none of the blocks could be connected to Satoshi.
Our method
Questions
Not since 2010, by Arkham’s count: its research puts Satoshi’s last transaction in July 2010. Coins keep arriving at the genesis address from other people, but nothing has ever been sent out of it.
No one can prove it. The best-known estimate comes from a mining fingerprint in the earliest blocks, the Patoshi pattern, first described by Sergio Demian Lerner in 2013. Arkham’s figure is about 1.096 million BTC across some 22,000 addresses.
Both use the same test: Arkham’s Satoshi page has to show an Outflow or a Swaps transaction before the deadline. Coins arriving do not count, and an old wallet moving does not count unless Arkham labels it Satoshi’s.
The windows differ. Polymarket counts only Jan 9 to Dec 31, 2026; Kalshi counts any time before Jan 1, 2027 from the day the market opened. Each venue also has its own fees and traders.
It received the very first block reward, which can’t be spent because of a quirk in how that block is written into the code. People have sent small amounts to it ever since, and nothing has ever been sent out of it.
Polymarket’s rule says that if Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, the market resolves on a consensus of credible sources. Kalshi’s market page names Arkham alone; read its contract terms for the full list before you trade.
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Sources
What we left out: the claim that Satoshi’s final email was to Gavin Andresen on Apr 26, 2011, because we couldn’t find a primary source for it, and any guess at who Satoshi is.
Keep going
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