Kalshi · KXETH15M · ether up or down · 1m to 1W charts
Ethereum 15 MinUp or Down
Kalshi opens a new up-or-down ether window on every quarter hour. This page is that contract: the target to beat, live Coinbase ETH-USD candles from 1 minute to 1 week, and what a stake pays after the taker fee. Changing the chart tab changes the candles only, never the ETH contract in the panel.
The odds and payout on this page still update on their own.
Short-term read
Move needed
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Typical move
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ATR 14
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15m range
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1h range
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vs VWAP
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Heuristics, not odds of winning. σ = recent realized volatility of these candles, scaled to the time left.
Coinbase ETH-USD candles, your time zone. Kalshi settles this contract on the CF Benchmarks real-time index for ETH, and Coinbase is one of the exchanges inside that index.Charts by TradingView
Settlement
What price actually settles a 15-minute window
Kalshi settles this 15-minute window on the CME CF Ether-Dollar Real Time Index, a CF Benchmarks real-time index. In the final minute before the window closes, sixty one-second prints of that index are collected and averaged, and that average is compared with the same sixty-second average taken before the previous close. The strike type is greater or equal, so a window that lands exactly level resolves YES.
CME CF Ether-Dollar Real Time Index
Kalshi
Built from
Order books, not trades. The constituent books are consolidated, uncrossed, and reduced to a depth-weighted mid.
Updates
About once per second, to roughly every 200 milliseconds on request.
Administrator
CF Benchmarks Ltd, an FCA-authorised benchmark administrator, register 847100.
Methodology
Published and versioned, with a named exchange list. CF calls this one a Real Time Index.
The seven exchanges behind the number
CoinbaseKrakenBitstampGeminiBullishCrypto.comLMAX Digital
itBit was a constituent until 27 July 2026. Ether and bitcoin are the only two coins here with a seven-exchange book. Binance is not a constituent, which is worth knowing if you watch Binance and trade Kalshi.
Three or more price aggregators and market data vendors using exchange order books. Chainlink does not name them publicly.
Reported as
A consensus median across the oracle network, delivered as a signed report.
In use since
7 August 2026 on Polymarket’s bitcoin up-or-down market, replacing a single-price snapshot.
Methodology
Not published. Polymarket’s own docs say the sampling boundaries, weighting and rounding are not specified.
Polymarket warns readers not to try to reproduce the value independently “without a specification from Chainlink.” That is the honest difference between the two: one publishes its rules and its venue list, the other publishes neither.
Ties work the same way at both. Polymarket resolves Up when the closing TWAP is greater than or equal to the opening price, exactly as Kalshi resolves YES on a level window.
Do they disagree? Rarely, and almost only on near-flat windows. Both are order-book derived and both average about sixty seconds, so the outcome only flips when a window’s net move is smaller than the gap between the two indices, which research published on 24 August 2026 measured at roughly 2.5 basis points between a major exchange mid and the Chainlink price. That was measured on bitcoin, where it came to about $21 with bitcoin near $86,000. We have found no published study measuring the CME CF Ether-Dollar Real Time Index against Chainlink directly, so we are not going to put a number on that. The study.
Reset monitor · this device
Before the next trade
After a loss, a big win or a long session, take a few minutes off the desk before the next trade.
On the desk today: . Counts while a desk page is open and on screen.
Foreword
Exclusive TunaLead writer · pen name
Trading 15-minute markets moves fast. A setup can change in minutes, so I want the right information in front of me before I make a decision.
That’s why I use PM Countdown. It puts the indicators and market information I care about in one place, so I can review the setup, understand the price being offered, and decide whether it’s actually worth taking.
The reset is part of my process too. After a big win, a tough loss, or too much time at the screen, five minutes away helps me come back focused instead of chasing the next trade.
I don’t need to trade every market. I want the right setup at the right price. PM Countdown helps me stay disciplined and wait for it.
Exclusive Tuna
Reset running
5:00
Answer honestly. Only you see this, and nothing is saved.
Is the next trade about getting that loss back?
Do I know today’s loss limit in dollars?
Have I reached it?
Would I size the next trade bigger than I planned this morning?
Have I moved some of it to my bank account?
Does money I just won feel easier to risk than money I put in?
Would I size up the next trade because I’m up?
Do I know when I’m stopping today?
Have I stood up in the last hour?
Have I eaten something in the last few hours?
Did I get a normal night’s sleep?
Is it later than I planned to stop?
After a loss
Let this one go.
After a big win
Move some of it to your bank.
What to do with a big win: the set-aside, the move off the exchange, and the size of the next bankroll.
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How to read this Ethereum desk
Four numbers, then a decision
Every tab on this page ends in the same question: is the price you would pay below what you think this ether contract is worth, after the fee?
The target Kalshi publishes when the quarter-hour window opens, quoted for ether in dollars and cents. It is set at the open and does not move. Read the market subtitle on Kalshi before you size: it says whether ether has to finish above that figure or at it or above.
ETH now and the gap
The live Coinbase ETH-USD price and how far it sits above or below the target. Kalshi's ETH 15-minute contract settles on the CF Benchmarks real-time index for ether, and Coinbase is one of the exchanges inside that index, so the two track closely without ever being the same number. The gap is what you are really trading.
Up and Down prices
Up is the Kalshi ask for YES on this ether window. Down is 100 minus the YES bid, which is what NO costs you. A price in cents reads as the market's chance in percent, so 44¢ is the market saying roughly 44%.
If you're right, if you're wrong
What your stake buys at the current ask, after Kalshi's taker fee. If you're wrong the whole stake is gone at the close. On a market that reopens four times an hour that is the number to decide first, not last.
15m
Real contract. KXETH15M opens a fresh up-or-down ether window on every quarter hour and settles on the CF Benchmarks real-time index for ETH at the close. That one contract is what the right-hand panel reads on every chart tab.
1h · 4h · 1D · 1W
Chart views. Longer ether candles drawn over the same 15-minute contract. Kalshi lists an hourly strike ladder for bitcoin; we have not confirmed one for ether, so this desk stays on the quarter-hour window and does not show an ETH hourly market we cannot verify.
5m
Our layout. The final 5 minutes of the live ether window, shaded, with a countdown to when that phase starts.
30m · 45m
Our layout. Two or three ether windows in a row. Each is a separate trade, and a window Kalshi has not opened yet has no published target, so the desk says so instead of guessing one.
1m · 2m · 3m
Chart views. Short ether candles over the current contract. Three-minute candles divide the window into five bars exactly; two-minute candles do not, so the window edges fall inside a bar and the desk places the window box by time instead.
BTC · SOL · XRP · DOGE
Also real contracts. KXBTC15M, KXSOL15M, KXXRP15M and KXDOGE15M run the same quarter-hour cadence, each settling on its own CF Benchmarks index. Bitcoin has its own page, the BTC 15-minute desk; SOL and XRP have their own desks too, and DOGE still switches in place from the coin row at the top of this one.
ETH / BTC, the pair behind ether
Ether was priced in bitcoin before it was priced in dollars
Most people who trade the 15-minute ether window watch ETH against the dollar. Traders who were around in 2014 watch a second number too: ETH / BTC, how much bitcoin one ether costs. The Ethereum ICO only took bitcoin, so the very first price ether ever had was a bitcoin price, 2,000 ETH for 1 BTC. On this desk, the USD | BTC switch beside the chart title flips it to ETH / BTC, with RSI, MACD and a choice of exchange.
The 2014 ether sale
Bitcoin only
Opened
22 July 2014, and ran 42 days to 2 September 2014.
Price
2,000 ETH per BTC for the first 14 days, then falling in a straight line to 1,337 ETH per BTC on the last day.
Payment
Bitcoin only. If you had dollars you first bought BTC, then sent the BTC to the sale.
Raised
More than 31,000 BTC, about $18.3 million at the time, from 8,437 purchases, for 60 million ETH.
In dollars
Bitcoin closed at $621.55 on 22 July 2014, so 2,000 ETH per BTC worked out to about $0.31 per ether. On the last day, at 1,337 per BTC and bitcoin at $477.43, it was about $0.36.
0.161 BTC at $621.55, which bought 321.8 ETH in the first 14 days. At $2,696.56 per ether that is about $867,700. The same 0.161 BTC simply held is about $13,600.
$1,000
1.609 BTC, which bought 3,217.8 ETH, about $8.68 million today. Holding the bitcoin instead is about $136,100.
Last day
$1,000 bought 2.094 BTC at $477.43, which got 2,800.4 ETH at 1,337 per BTC, about $7.55 million today.
The ratio
2,000 ETH per BTC is a ratio of 0.0005 BTC per ether. Today it is about 0.0319, roughly 64 times higher.
Prices as of 1 October 2026: ETH $2,696.56, BTC $84,611.16 (Coinbase). This is history, not a forecast, and it leaves out the risk anyone took holding a brand new coin through 2015 and 2016.
First trading, then Coinbase
2015 to 2016
30 Jul 2015
Ethereum Frontier, the live network, launched.
Aug 2015
Kraken opened ether trading in ETH / XBT (its name for bitcoin) and in dollars and euros. ETH / BTC was not the only pair, but bitcoin was the currency early ether holders had paid in, so plenty of them kept counting in it.
May 2016
Coinbase's exchange added ether with two pairs, ETH / USD and ETH / BTC, and renamed itself GDAX on 24 May. Its first ETH / BTC candle is 18 May 2016, opening at 0.0279 BTC. Ether was around $14 that week ($14.28 on 19 May 2016). $1,000 at $14.28 was 70 ETH, about $188,800 today.
21 Jul 2016
Ether arrived in the regular Coinbase app for everyday buyers.
Ether is moving more than bitcoin. The move is about ether itself: an upgrade, an ETF flow, a big wallet.
Ratio flat
Ether is moving with bitcoin. The window is really a bitcoin window, so watch the BTC 15-minute desk too.
Ratio down
Ether is lagging. A rising bitcoin with a falling ratio means ether is getting dragged up, not leading.
Range
The ratio's all-time high was 0.148 in June 2017; it fell near 0.018 in April 2025. Today's 0.0319 sits much closer to the low end.
What our test found. We ran ETH / BTC against 60 days of ether windows (2 August to 30 September 2026). It explains why ether moved, but on its own it did not call the next 15 minutes better than chance. Agent AnJie uses it as context next to the ETH / USD chart, never as the whole call.
Ratio history: CoinGecko ETH / BTC. The ETH / BTC chart on this desk opens on Binance, Agent AnJie’s pick for the deepest ETH / BTC book, with Coinbase (back to May 2016), Kraken and OKX one click away: drag it left to scroll through the history.
ETH / BTC is the price of one ether in bitcoin instead of dollars. At about 0.0319 it means one ether costs about 0.0319 BTC. When it rises, ether is doing better than bitcoin; when it falls, bitcoin is doing better.
How much ETH did 1 BTC buy in the Ethereum ICO?
2,000 ETH per bitcoin for the first 14 days of the sale, which opened on 22 July 2014, then a price falling to 1,337 ETH per bitcoin by the close on 2 September 2014. The sale only accepted bitcoin.
What was the Ethereum ICO price in dollars?
About $0.31 per ether in the first 14 days, since bitcoin closed at $621.55 on 22 July 2014 and one bitcoin bought 2,000 ETH. By the last day it was about $0.36. $1,000 turned into bitcoin and sent to the sale in its first two weeks bought about 3,218 ETH.
When did Coinbase list Ethereum, and at what price?
Coinbase's exchange added ether in May 2016 with ETH / USD and ETH / BTC pairs; its first ETH / BTC candle is 18 May 2016, and the exchange renamed itself GDAX on 24 May. Ether traded around $14 that week. It came to the regular Coinbase app on 21 July 2016.
Was ETH / BTC the only way to trade ether at first?
No. The ICO took only bitcoin, but when Kraken opened ether trading in August 2015 it listed ether in dollars and euros as well as bitcoin. Many early traders still counted ether in bitcoin because that is what they paid with.
Does ETH / BTC help with the Kalshi 15-minute ether window?
As context, yes: it tells you whether ether is moving on its own or just following bitcoin. In our 60-day test it did not call the next 15 minutes on its own, so treat it as one input next to the price to beat and the live Up and Down prices.
Fees on a 15-minute ether window
A coin flip needs a real edge
Most ether windows trade near 50¢, and that is exactly where Kalshi's fee is at its worst. You pay the spread and the fee before you make anything, and this market reopens four times an hour, so the cost of trading every window adds up faster than the edge does.
Worked example: 100 Up contracts on an ether window at a 51¢ ask
These are the arithmetic, not a quote from the live ETH market. Cost is $51.00 plus a $1.75 fee (0.07 × 100 × 0.51 × 0.49, rounded up to the cent), so $52.75 in total. They pay $100 if ether finishes on the right side of the target. You need to be right more than 52.75% of the time just to break even, and selling before the close adds a second fee.
Fee formula: Kalshi's taker fee, 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent; resting limit orders can pay less. The published write-ups on these markets were written about the bitcoin version, and the same formula and the same fee schedule apply to the ether window: predictionmarketspicks.com calls the spread plus fees on a near-coin-flip contract "a steep, constant drag", and TheLines puts the fee at 1¢ to 2¢ per contract.
Sizing
¼ Kelly, capped at 5%
Full Kelly for an ether contract at price P when you believe the chance is q is (q − P) ÷ (1 − P). We use a quarter of that, never more than 5% of your bankroll, and nothing at all when the number is zero or negative. Four ether windows an hour is four chances to overstake.
Full Kelly—
¼ Kelly—
Stake—
Ignores fees, which lower it further. Your chance is a guess; if it's wrong, Kelly oversizes. Source: betstamp on Kelly, which advises never risking more than 5% on one bet.
Take a break between windows
A new ether window every 15 minutes isn't a reason to trade every one
Fast markets reward slow rules. Ether gives you 96 of these windows a day and you do not have to be in any of them. Decide how many you will trade and your loss limit for the session before the first one, and stop when either runs out. If you lost the last ether window, sit out the next one.
Set a money limit for the session before you start, and keep it.
Never raise the stake to win back the last window.
Skip any ether window where you can't say why the price is wrong.
Walk away after a set number of windows, win or lose.
TheLines' guide to these markets makes the same point: "Take breaks. Avoid rushing into consecutive trades."
Only risk what you can afford to lose. This desk is information, not advice, and PM Countdown isn't affiliated with Kalshi. Kalshi users can set funding caps and opt-outs in the Responsible Trading Hub. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET. Responsible gambling guide
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