Kalshi · KXSOL15M · SOL up or down · 1m to 1W charts
Solana 15-minute desk
Kalshi opens a new up-or-down Solana window on every quarter hour. This page is that contract: the target to beat, live Coinbase SOL-USD candles from 1 minute to 1 week, and what a stake pays after the taker fee. Changing the chart tab changes the candles only, never the SOL contract in the panel.
Dot = the Kalshi contract in the panel (15m). Every other tab charts the same 15-minute contract.
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The odds and payout on this page still update on their own.
Short-term read
- Move needed
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- Typical move
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- ATR 14
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- 15m range
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- 1h range
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- vs VWAP
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Heuristics, not odds of winning. σ = recent realized volatility of these candles, scaled to the time left.
Signals
—Chart patterns from these candles. Heuristics, not odds of winning.
Coinbase SOL-USD candles, your time zone. Kalshi settles this contract on the CF Benchmarks real-time index for SOL, and Coinbase is one of the exchanges inside that index. Charts by TradingView
Session check · this device
Time on the desk today
Counts only while a desk page is open and on screen. Resets at midnight.
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How to read this Solana desk
Four numbers, then a decision
Every tab on this page ends in the same question: is the price you would pay below what you think this SOL contract is worth, after the fee?
The panel reads the same four numbers on every coin desk: the target Kalshi set when the window opened, the live Coinbase price and its gap from that target, the Up and Down prices in cents, and what a stake pays if you are right or costs if you are wrong. The mechanics are written up once, on the crypto markets hub, and the fee arithmetic lives in Lesson 03. What follows is only what is different about Solana.
The facts behind this desk
- Series
KXSOL15M, listed by Kalshi with a fifteen-minute frequency; a window was open when we checked on 2026-09-19. - Settles on a CF Benchmarks real-time index for SOL, the settlement source Kalshi names at the series level. We have not read the index’s exact name off a live SOL market yet, so we do not print one.
- Target precision read off each market as it opens. Our spot quote is two decimals; the panel prints the target with however many decimals Kalshi publishes, which we have not confirmed for SOL from a market object.
Read from Kalshi’s public API. Dates and the open items are listed on the Solana hub. Nothing here is filled in from memory of another coin.
Reading a mid-priced coin
Solana sits between the two extremes on this site. A bitcoin gap is a big dollar figure on a price in the tens of thousands; an XRP gap is a fraction of a cent on a price near a dollar. SOL trades in the low hundreds, so one tenth of a percent is a few tens of cents and the panel’s numbers read naturally at two decimals without the noise of either neighbour. Still judge the gap in percent: the gauge under the live price is scaled to ±0.10% of the target and widens if price runs past it, and the Short-term read scales the recent realised move to the seconds left in the window.
The chart draws Coinbase SOL-USD candles. Coinbase is one of the exchanges inside the CF Benchmarks index that settles this contract, so the two track closely without ever being the same number. A one-second print on one exchange in the final minute barely moves an index average; read the target off Kalshi and the direction off the index, not off a single candle wick.
What we have not measured yet
We have not measured a SOL window’s traded volume or open interest, so this page prints none. When we do, the figure will carry its field name and the date it was read, the way the XRP desk shows one window’s volume_fp. Until then, treat the depth of this market as unknown rather than as thin or deep.
There is no Solana hourly desk. Kalshi’s series listing shows hourly-shaped SOL series, but we have not watched one trade, so this desk stays on the quarter-hour contract and links to nothing we cannot verify.
Real contract. KXSOL15M opens a fresh up-or-down Solana window on every quarter hour. That one contract is what the right-hand panel reads on every chart tab.
Chart views. Short SOL candles over the current window; three-minute candles divide it into five bars exactly, two-minute candles do not, so the window box is placed by time.
Chart views. Longer SOL candles drawn over the same 15-minute contract. The 1W tab reaches back as far as Coinbase’s SOL-USD history allows and says so if it runs short.
Their own pages. The coin row at the top links to the BTC, ETH and XRP desks; DOGE still switches in place until its page ships.
Settled SOL windows. The chips in the panel are this series’ last settled windows from Kalshi, each target printed with the decimals its own market declared, refreshed every minute. Never sample data.
Fees and sizing on a Solana window
The fee is on the contract, not on SOL
Kalshi’s taker fee is 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent, and it is at its worst near 50¢, where most quarter-hour windows trade. It does not care what the coin is: 100 contracts at 51¢ cost $52.75 all in and pay $100, so you need to be right more than 52.75% of the time to break even. The desk’s “If right / If wrong” lines already include it.
We size with a quarter Kelly capped at 5% of bankroll, and nothing at all when the edge is zero or negative. Four SOL windows an hour is four chances to overstake, which is the reason for the cap. The worked examples and the calculator are on Lesson 03: Kalshi prices and fees and Lesson 02: bankroll and units.
Take a break between windows
96 Solana windows a day is not 96 trades
Decide the number of windows and the loss limit for the session before the first one, and stop when either runs out. If the last SOL window went against you, sit the next one out. The session check above keeps the clock and the limit in front of you on this device; Lesson 04 has the rest.
21+Only risk what you can afford to lose. This desk is information, not advice, and PM Countdown isn't affiliated with Kalshi. Kalshi users can set funding caps and opt-outs in the Responsible Trading Hub. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Responsible gambling guide