Desk column · College football · UFC Vegas 121 · Saturday, Sept 26
16 for 16: the college football and UFC parlay, leg by leg
Fifteen college football winners and one UFC fighter in one Kalshi combo, emailed to members before kickoff: every pick, every final score, what the price said the odds were, and what cashing out early gave up.
The short version
Every leg won. $9.36 bought a ticket the market priced at about 5.6% to hit. It was sold for $99.99 (+968%) before it settled, and held to the end it would have paid $167.22 (+1,687%). The closest football leg was Merrimack's 17-10 win over New Haven; the last leg was Raul Rosas Jr., who won by TKO in the final round.
PM Countdown Desk Exclusive Insider pick
Cost
$9.36
16 legs, all or nothing
Cashed out
$99.99
+968% on the cost
Potential payout
$167.22
+1,687% would have hit if held
Legs
16 of 16
every leg won
The market's price
5.6%
about 1 in 18, all 16 together
The 16 legs
Fifteen college football teams to win outright and one UFC fighter. Each card shows the pick, the opponent and the final.
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Leg 1 · UFCHit
vs Raoni Barcelos
Final: Won by TKO
The one UFC leg, and the last to settle. Per the desk's own Kalshi post, Rosas finished it by TKO in the final round.
Exclusive Tuna had it too: YES Rosas Jr., in at 59¢, out at 71¢. Win.
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Leg 2 · NCAAFHit
NC State
vs App State
Final: 41-31
Won by 10.
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Leg 3 · NCAAFHit
vs Washington State
Final: 34-24
Won by 10.
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Leg 4 · NCAAFHit
Campbell
vs Hampton
Final: 44-20
Won by 24.
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Leg 5 · NCAAFHit
UTSA
vs Colorado State
Final: 59-45
A 104-point game. UTSA won it by 14.
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Leg 6 · NCAAFHit
vs Colorado
Final: 23-13
Won by 10.
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Leg 7 · NCAAFHit
Florida Atlantic
vs UL Monroe
Final: 45-17
Won by 28.
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Leg 8 · NCAAFHit
Louisiana
vs Charlotte
Final: 34-7
Won by 27.
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Leg 9 · NCAAFHit
Merrimack
vs New Haven
Final: 17-10
The closest football leg: a 7-point win, 17-10.
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Leg 10 · NCAAFHit
New Mexico
vs New Mexico State
Final: 42-18
Won by 24.
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Leg 11 · NCAAFHit
vs Oklahoma
Final: 41-13
The biggest name on the ticket, and one of its widest wins: 28 points.
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Leg 12 · NCAAFHit
Fresno State
vs Rice
Final: 38-24
Won by 14.
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Leg 13 · NCAAFHit
Kentucky
vs South Alabama
Final: 45-21
Won by 24.
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Leg 14 · NCAAFHit
South Carolina State
vs Bethune-Cookman
Final: 31-21
Won by 10.
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Leg 15 · NCAAFHit
vs South Carolina
Final: 49-18
Won by 31.
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Leg 16 · NCAAFHit
Samford
vs VMI
Final: 45-7
The widest win on the ticket: 38 points.
Every leg, closest call first
All fifteen football legs are straight-up winners, so the margin did not matter to the ticket. It still shows how close the upsets came.
| Leg | Needed | Final | Room |
|---|---|---|---|
| Merrimack over New Haven | Win | 17-10 | won by 7 |
| NC State over App State | Win | 41-31 | won by 10 |
| Arizona over Washington State | Win | 34-24 | won by 10 |
| Baylor over Colorado | Win | 23-13 | won by 10 |
| South Carolina State over Bethune-Cookman | Win | 31-21 | won by 10 |
| UTSA over Colorado State | Win | 59-45 | won by 14 |
| Fresno State over Rice | Win | 38-24 | won by 14 |
| Campbell over Hampton | Win | 44-20 | won by 24 |
| New Mexico over New Mexico State | Win | 42-18 | won by 24 |
| Kentucky over South Alabama | Win | 45-21 | won by 24 |
| Louisiana over Charlotte | Win | 34-7 | won by 27 |
| Florida Atlantic over UL Monroe | Win | 45-17 | won by 28 |
| Georgia over Oklahoma | Win | 41-13 | won by 28 |
| Alabama over South Carolina | Win | 49-18 | won by 31 |
| Samford over VMI | Win | 45-7 | won by 38 |
| Raul Rosas Jr. over Raoni Barcelos | Win | Won by TKO | Won by TKO |
What the price said
At $9.36 for a $167.22 maximum, the combo was priced at about 5.6%: roughly a 1 in 18 chance that all 16 legs hit.
Read as 16 independent legs, that is about 84% a leg. Every leg is a different game, so the independent read is closer to fair here than on a same-game parlay. It is still the market's joint price read two ways, not a model of each leg.
How the ticket was built
The desk's breakdown after the fact, from the results. It is not the note that went to members.
Winners only. Every football leg is a team to win, no spreads. A 7-point win and a 38-point win pay the same, so the only thing that could sink the ticket was an upset somewhere on the slate.
Big programs and small schools. The list runs from Georgia over Oklahoma and Alabama over South Carolina to Samford over VMI, Campbell over Hampton and Merrimack over New Haven. The closest of them all was Merrimack, by 7.
One fighter. Raul Rosas Jr. against Raoni Barcelos at UFC Vegas 121 was the ticket's last leg. Per the desk's own Kalshi post, he won by TKO in the final round.
The cash-out, and what holding would have paid
The ticket was sold for $99.99 before it settled. That locked in $90.63 on $9.36, +968%.
Every leg then won, so holding would have hit for the full $167.22, +1,687%: $67.23 more than the sale.
The sale price is 59.8% of the maximum, roughly what the market gave the legs still open at that moment. Selling took the risk off the table while those legs were live; in hindsight the hold paid more. That is the trade every cash-out makes.
Questions people ask
Did every leg of the parlay hit?
Yes. All 16 legs won: fifteen college football teams to win on Saturday, Sept 26, 2026, and Raul Rosas Jr. at UFC Vegas 121.
How much did it cost and pay?
It cost $9.36. It was cashed out for $99.99, a profit of $90.63 (+968%). Held to the end it would have paid $167.22 (+1,687%).
What was the closest leg?
Merrimack's 17-10 win over New Haven, the only football leg decided by fewer than 10 points. Raul Rosas Jr.'s fight went to the final round before his TKO.
What is a Kalshi combo?
A Kalshi combo bundles several markets into one position that pays only if every leg wins, the way a parlay does. Its price is the market's price for all the legs hitting together.
Was it posted before the games?
It was emailed to PM Countdown members before kickoff. The public Kalshi post went up after it cashed.
Sources
The Kalshi post by PMCountdown (16 markets, cost $9.36, payout $99.99, max payout $167.22), read 2026-09-29. Final scores from ESPN's college football scoreboard for Sept 26, 2026 (FBS and FCS) and the result of Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos from ESPN's UFC scoreboard, read 2026-09-29. The final-round TKO is from the desk's own Kalshi post. The Kalshi post.