Desk column · NFL · WNBA · Bitcoin 15 min · Sunday, Sept 27
16 for 16: the NFL, WNBA and Bitcoin parlay, leg by leg
Sixteen markets in one Kalshi combo, emailed to members before kickoff: what each leg needed, how close each one came, what the price said the odds were, and what cashing out early gave up.
The short version
Every leg won. $28.12 bought a ticket the market priced at about 5.1% to hit. It was sold for $324.62 (+1,054%) before the last leg settled, and held to the end it would have paid $546.51 (+1,843%). The closest call was the first leg to settle: Bitcoin finished its 15-minute window $6.50 above the target.
PM Countdown Desk Exclusive Insider pick
Cost
$28.12
16 legs, all or nothing
Cashed out
$324.62
+1,054% on the cost
Potential payout
$546.51
+1,843% would have hit if held
Legs
16 of 16
every leg won
The market's price
5.1%
about 1 in 19, all 16 together
The 16 legs
Built from three kinds of market: one Bitcoin window, eleven NFL legs across six games, and four WNBA playoff totals. Each card shows what the leg needed and how it finished.
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Leg 1 · BTCHit
Bitcoin 15 min
At or above $84,502.01
Final: $84,508.51
The one near coin flip on the ticket, and the first leg to settle: the 11:45 PM to midnight PT window. It cleared by $6.50.
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Leg 2 · NFLHit
ARI at SF
Under 68.5 points
Final: SF 36, ARI 30
An alternate total far above a normal NFL score. The 66 points came within 2.5 of breaking it, the closest football leg.
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Leg 3 · NFLHit
C.J. Stroud
150+ passing yards
Final: 167 yards
150 yards is a floor, not a projection. The thinnest quarterback cushion on the ticket.
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Leg 4 · NFLHit
Daniel Jones
150+ passing yards
Final: 235 yards
The second quarterback from Texans at Colts. He cleared the floor by 85.
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Leg 5 · NFLHit
Patrick Mahomes
150+ passing yards
Final: 246 yards
The only Chiefs leg. 246 yards, 96 to spare.
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Leg 6 · NFLHit
Josh Allen
150+ passing yards
Final: 204 yards
One of three legs on Chargers at Bills, with Herbert and the under.
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Leg 7 · NFLHit
Justin Herbert
150+ passing yards
Final: 226 yards
Both quarterbacks in the same game, plus the under on that game.
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Leg 8 · NFLHit
LAC at BUF
Under 71.5 points
Final: BUF 24, LAC 16
71.5 points is a line few NFL games reach. The 40 scored cleared it by 31.5, the widest of the three unders.
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Leg 9 · NFLHit
Trevor Lawrence
150+ passing yards
Final: 182 yards
Clear by 32 yards.
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Leg 10 · NFLHit
Drake Maye
150+ passing yards
Final: 199 yards
The second quarterback from Patriots at Jaguars. 199 yards.
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Leg 11 · NFLHit
Geno Smith
150+ passing yards
Final: 321 yards
The biggest cushion of any yardage leg: 171 yards over the floor.
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Leg 12 · NFLHit
NYJ at DET
Under 69.5 points
Final: DET 31, NYJ 24
55 points against a 69.5 line.
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Leg 13 · WNBAHit
DAL at GS
Over 141.5 points
Final: GS 104, DAL 80
Tipped at 6 PM PT. 184 points, 42.5 over.
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Leg 14 · WNBAHit
IND at LV
Over 169.5 points
Final: LV 102, IND 85
The highest total on the ticket, and it still cleared by 17.5.
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Leg 15 · WNBAHit
NY at MIN
Over 160.5 points
Final: NY 91, MIN 75
The closest WNBA leg: 166 points, 5.5 over.
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Leg 16 · WNBAHit
WSH at ATL
Over 150.5 points
Final: ATL 92, WSH 77
169 points, 18.5 over.
Every leg, closest call first
Room is how far each result finished past its line, also shown as a share of the line so a $6.50 Bitcoin margin and a 171-yard passing margin can sit in one list.
| Leg | Needed | Final | Room | Share of line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin 15 min | At or above $84,502.01 | $84,508.51 | $6.50 | 0.01% |
| NY at MIN | Over 160.5 points | NY 91, MIN 75 | 5.5 points | 3.4% |
| ARI at SF | Under 68.5 points | SF 36, ARI 30 | 2.5 points | 3.6% |
| IND at LV | Over 169.5 points | LV 102, IND 85 | 17.5 points | 10.3% |
| C.J. Stroud | 150+ passing yards | 167 yards | 17 yards | 11.3% |
| WSH at ATL | Over 150.5 points | ATL 92, WSH 77 | 18.5 points | 12.3% |
| NYJ at DET | Under 69.5 points | DET 31, NYJ 24 | 14.5 points | 20.9% |
| Trevor Lawrence | 150+ passing yards | 182 yards | 32 yards | 21.3% |
| DAL at GS | Over 141.5 points | GS 104, DAL 80 | 42.5 points | 30.0% |
| Drake Maye | 150+ passing yards | 199 yards | 49 yards | 32.7% |
| Josh Allen | 150+ passing yards | 204 yards | 54 yards | 36.0% |
| LAC at BUF | Under 71.5 points | BUF 24, LAC 16 | 31.5 points | 44.1% |
| Justin Herbert | 150+ passing yards | 226 yards | 76 yards | 50.7% |
| Daniel Jones | 150+ passing yards | 235 yards | 85 yards | 56.7% |
| Patrick Mahomes | 150+ passing yards | 246 yards | 96 yards | 64.0% |
| Geno Smith | 150+ passing yards | 321 yards | 171 yards | 114.0% |
What the price said
At $28.12 for a $546.51 maximum, the combo was priced at about 5.1%: roughly a 1 in 19 chance that all 16 legs hit.
Read as 16 independent legs, that is about 83% a leg. Four games carry more than one leg (both quarterbacks and the under on Chargers at Bills, for one), so the legs are not fully independent and this is the market's joint price read two ways, not a model of each leg.
How the ticket was built
The desk's breakdown after the fact, from the results. It is not the note that went to members.
Floors, not forecasts. Eight legs ask a starting quarterback for 150 passing yards. That is a floor rather than a call for a big day: the leg loses to an injury, an early exit in a blowout, or weather. All eight cleared, the tightest by 17 yards (C.J. Stroud) and the widest by 171 (Geno Smith).
Unders on totals set far above normal scoring. Three legs take No on game totals of 68.5, 69.5 and 71.5 points, alternate lines well above where NFL games usually land. That is why they sit next to passing floors from the same games without contradiction: 150 yards each for Josh Allen and Justin Herbert is nowhere near a 72-point game. Arizona at San Francisco came closest, 66 points against 68.5.
Four WNBA playoff overs. Three cleared by 17.5 points or more. New York at Minnesota, the early tip, cleared by 5.5.
One Bitcoin 15-minute window. The $84,502.01 target was the previous window's settle, so the leg asked whether Bitcoin would finish the 11:45 PM to midnight PT window at or above where it started. That is the closest thing to a coin flip on the ticket, and it settled first: $84,508.51, $6.50 clear.
The cash-out, and what holding would have paid
The ticket was sold for $324.62 before it settled. That locked in $296.50 on $28.12, +1,054%.
Every leg then won, so holding would have hit for the full $546.51, +1,843%: $221.89 more than the sale.
The sale price is 59.4% of the maximum, roughly what the market gave the legs still open at that moment. Selling took the risk off the table while those legs were live; in hindsight the hold paid more. That is the trade every cash-out makes.
What the replies said
The public Kalshi post has 11 likes and 9 comments as of 2026-09-29. Three of them, word for word:
Hey man I tailed this parlay way to go.
@spursphan on KalshiI tailed this at the end 🙌
@top.bird0100 on KalshiWas a great one to follow
@scrawny.koala1490 on Kalshi
Questions people ask
Did every leg of the parlay hit?
Yes. All 16 legs won: eight NFL quarterback passing-yard props, three NFL unders, four WNBA playoff overs and one Bitcoin 15-minute market.
How much did it cost and pay?
It cost $28.12. It was cashed out for $324.62, a profit of $296.50 (+1,054%). Held to the end it would have paid $546.51 (+1,843%).
What was the closest leg?
The Bitcoin 15-minute window, which settled at $84,508.51 against a $84,502.01 target: $6.50 clear. Among the sports legs, Arizona at San Francisco finished at 66 points against a 68.5 under.
What is a Kalshi combo?
A Kalshi combo bundles several markets into one position that pays only if every leg wins, the way a parlay does. Its price is the market's price for all the legs hitting together.
Was it posted before the games?
It was emailed to PM Countdown members before kickoff. The public Kalshi post went up on Sep 27, after it cashed.
Sources
The Kalshi post by PMCountdown (16 markets, cost $28.12, payout $324.62, max payout $546.51), read 2026-09-29. Final scores and passing yards from ESPN's NFL and WNBA scoreboards and game summaries for Sept 27, 2026, read 2026-09-29. The Bitcoin leg is Kalshi market KXBTC15M-26SEP270300-00, settled at $84,508.51, from Kalshi's public market data, read 2026-09-29. The Kalshi post.