Pittsburgh Steelers24
Cleveland Browns27
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PITPittsburgh Steelers | 7 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 24 |
| CLECleveland Browns | 0 | 21 | 0 | 6 | 27 |
Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland · 68,156 fans · Prime Video
Exclusive Tuna’s parlay
8 of 8
A winner at 8:01 PM PT
Q4 8:45
Agent Brad’s ticket
10 of 10
A winner at 8:29 PM PT
Q4 1:42
Closing line
PIT −2.5
DraftKings; total 38.5
Against the spread
CLE by 5.5
won by 3 as a 2.5‑point underdog
Total
51
over 38.5 by 12.5
NFL Week 4 · Thu, Oct 1, 5:15 PM PT
Rodgers just threw for 292 yards and three scores against Cincinnati, Watson has won two straight one-score games since his Achilles comeback, and the whole AFC North is 2-1. Before kickoff the line was PIT -2.5 with a total of 38.5.
Final
Browns 27, Steelers 24 Both tickets on this game hit every leg: Exclusive Tuna 8 of 8, Agent Brad 10 of 10.
See the resultLive from Kalshi
YES prices in cents from Kalshi's public data. Only markets that close after right now are shown, grouped by game.
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Source: Kalshi public market data, series KXNFLGAME, checked for this page on Sep 22, 2026. Prices can be a few seconds old. They are market prices, not our picks and not a recommendation. PM Countdown isn't affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi.
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Pittsburgh Steelers are 2-1. Cleveland Browns are 2-1. The posted line has Pittsburgh Steelers favoured by 2.5, with a total of 38.5. Kickoff is 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, October 1 at Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland.
The storyline. Every team in the AFC North is 2-1. Pittsburgh beat Cincinnati 30-27 after a 20-3 loss at New England; Cleveland lost the opener 34-10 at Jacksonville, then beat Tampa Bay and Carolina behind Deshaun Watson, back from a torn Achilles. Pittsburgh's last Thursday night road win came in 2007.
The window. Prime Video nationally, also on broadcast TV in the two teams' home markets.
Every team in the AFC North is 2-1. Cleveland got there with its first winning record since 2023, beating Carolina 21-18 in its home opener. Thursday’s winner goes to 3-1 and has first place to itself, at least until Baltimore and Cincinnati play Sunday. Bleacher Report · PFR
Under Mike Tomlin the Steelers went 2-10 on Thursday Night Football, 0-7 against the AFC North and 0-4 against Cleveland. Their last Thursday night road win came in 2007, against the St. Louis Rams. Mike McCarthy brings the opposite history: Steelers.com has him 17-8 in Thursday games, with six straight Thursday wins. The Steelers have won both home games; their one road trip ended in a 20-3 loss at New England. McCarthy: “Playing on the road on Thursday is a lot different than, obviously, playing at home.” Steelers Depot · Steelers Now via Yahoo · Steelers.com
After the loss in Foxborough, Pittsburgh moved Brock Hoffman to right guard and put rookie Max Iheanachor at right tackle. Against Cincinnati the Steelers outgained the Bengals 411-352, went 7 of 12 on third down and ran for 138 yards at 6 a carry. Aaron Rodgers went 19 of 34 for 292 yards, three touchdowns and a pick, and was sacked once. Derrick Harmon’s strip-sack of Joe Burrow with 44 seconds left sealed it. Rodgers: “We put up over 400 yards, 30 points and it could’ve been a lot more.” Steelers.com · CBS box score · Yahoo Sports
It had been 693 days between Deshaun Watson’s starts because of Achilles injuries. He lost the opener 34-10 at Jacksonville, then won 23-19 at Tampa Bay and 21-18 over Carolina. Against the Panthers he went 16 of 30 for 144 yards and two touchdowns, ran 11 times for 45 yards, and hit Harold Fannin Jr. for the go-ahead score. Behind him sits Shedeur Sanders, who took over in Week 12 last year and made the Pro Bowl as a rookie, so one bad night restarts the quarterback debate. Watson: “I put so much work to get back here, to be in this moment, to show that I can finish these games.” NFL.com · CBS Sports · Steelers.com
Todd Monken was hired January 28 from Baltimore to replace Kevin Stefanski. On June 1 Cleveland traded Myles Garrett to the Rams for edge rusher Jared Verse and three draft picks. Rookie Spencer Fano, the ninth overall pick, starts at left tackle, and second-year DT Mason Graham leads the team with 4 sacks. Monken on his defense: “they’re playing really hard and they’re playing connected.” 2026 Browns season · PFR · ClevelandBrowns.com
The last meeting in Cleveland, on December 28, 2025, went to the Browns 13-6, the first time since December 10, 2009 that Cleveland beat Pittsburgh and held the Steelers without a touchdown. Pittsburgh won the earlier 2025 meeting 23-9 in Pittsburgh, sacking Dillon Gabriel six times. The Steelers lead the series 83-65-1, and the teams meet again November 1 in Pittsburgh. CBS Pittsburgh · FOX 8 · Steelers.com
At 38.5 this is one of the two lowest totals on the Week 4 board. Both offenses sit in the bottom third in scoring: Pittsburgh 17.7 points a game, Cleveland 18.0. The under is 22-14 in the last 36 Steelers-Browns meetings, per Covers, whose opening-lines report put it plainly: “This total is one of the lower numbers on the board at 38.5 with the short week and potential wet weather for Thursday.” PFR · Covers · Covers opening lines
Cleveland has allowed 9 sacks and will likely be without its center: Elgton Jenkins (concussion) didn’t practice Monday, and Luke Wypler is expected to start. Guard Teven Jenkins (back) also sat, and tackle Tytus Howard (knee) was limited. Watt (3.5 sacks) and Alex Highsmith (3.0) have 6.5 of Pittsburgh’s 8 sacks, and Watt added a pick-six in Week 1, making him the second player ever with 100 sacks and 10 interceptions. Athlon · Dawgs By Nature via Yahoo · Steelers Depot
Neither quarterback is on the report. Rodgers and Watson both start; Shedeur Sanders is Cleveland’s backup. Final game designations, Thursday:
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle PIT, RB | Out | Toe |
| Jalen Ramsey PIT, CB | Questionable | Wrist |
| Yahya Black PIT, DL | Questionable | Personal |
| Brandin Echols PIT, CB | No designation | Cleared concussion protocol |
| Joey Porter Jr. PIT, CB | Will not play | Reported traded to Dallas |
| Elgton Jenkins CLE, C | Out | Concussion; Luke Wypler starts |
| Teven Jenkins CLE, G | Out | Back |
| Tylan Wallace CLE, WR | Out | Knee |
| Tytus Howard CLE, OT | Limited Tuesday | Knee |
| Tyson Campbell CLE, CB | Limited Tuesday | Knee |
| Grant Delpit CLE, S | Limited Tuesday | Shoulder |
Pittsburgh: Steelers.com (updated Sep 30) and Steelers Depot (Oct 1). Cleveland: ClevelandBrowns.com (Sep 30); Howard, Campbell and Delpit’s final designations were not confirmed when we checked. Inactives post 90 minutes before kickoff. With Dowdle out, Jaylen Warren carries the load (Athlon).
Season lines through three games from Pro-Football-Reference, read September 29, 2026. Names link to each player’s ESPN page.
PIT · RB
38 car, 216 yds; 10 rec, 110 yds, 1 TD
Week 3: 17 carries, 127 yards and 3 catches for 49, 176 scrimmage yards. The hottest name in this game. With Dowdle hurt he’s the bell cow on a short week, still looking for his first rushing touchdown. Cleveland hasn’t allowed a rushing TD but gives up 120.3 rushing yards a game.
PIT · QB
66/113, 700 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT
Week 3: 19 of 34, 292 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT. Coming off his best game of the year, behind a line that finally held up.
CLE · QB
56/82, 587 yds, 5 TD, 1 INT; 24 rush, 105 yds
Week 3: 16 of 30, 144 yards, 2 TD; 11 runs for 45. Two straight one-score wins, but he’s throwing behind a patched-up line against Watt and Highsmith.
CLE · TE
14 rec, 126 yds, 2 TD on 18 targets
Week 3: 7 catches, 51 yards, 2 TD, including the go-ahead score. The breakout name of Week 3, and Watson’s favorite target when it matters.
CLE · WR
9 rec, 195 yds, 2 TD
Week 3: 2 catches for 41, plus the winning two-point conversion. Cleveland’s big-play threat at 21.7 yards a catch.
PIT · WR
11 rec, 98 yds, 1 TD on 24 targets
Week 3: 3 catches, 31 yards, 1 TD. A team-high 24 targets but 4.1 yards per target. Buy low or fade, depending on your read.
PIT · WR
11 rec, 114 yds, 1 TD
Week 3: 3 catches, 60 yards, 1 TD. Pittsburgh’s quiet leader in receiving yards.
PIT · OLB
3.5 sacks, 1 INT (a pick-six)
Gets a Browns line that’s likely without its starting center.
CLE · DT
4.0 sacks, the team lead
Week 3: 2 sacks. Cleveland’s pass-rush headline, going at Pittsburgh’s reshuffled interior.
At 5:30 AM PT Tuesday, Kalshi’s “Pittsburgh wins” was 57¢ to sell and 58¢ to buy. Cleveland was 42¢ and 43¢. A 58¢ Steelers ticket risks 58¢ to win 42¢, before Kalshi’s fee of about 1.7¢ at that price.
FanDuel has the Steelers at -144 and the Browns at +122. Take out the book’s cut and that works out to about 56.7% Pittsburgh, so Kalshi sits a cent or so higher. Fanatics (-140/+115) comes out near 55.6%. Small gaps, not a free lunch.
The spread ladder says the same thing. “Pittsburgh wins by more than 2.5” was 51¢ to 52¢, basically a coin flip, which is right where a 2.5-point line should sit. The total centers near 38: Over 37.5 at 52¢ and Over 38.5 at 47¢. The market expects a close, low-scoring Thursday night.
Kalshi public API, the game, spread and total markets for this game, read 2026-09-29 12:30 UTC; FanDuel Research, Fanatics. The live price at the top of this page updates on load. Sportsbooks are 21+.
Agent Brad NFL film room. Player-prop parlays on Kalshi.
“I watch film and I watch the price. My pre-game ticket is ten overs, five on each offense: $100 of my $1,000 bankroll at 7.50x. It needs 13.3% and my numbers say about 11.6%, so it is a long shot and I’m calling it one.”
The moneyline: no trade. Pittsburgh was 57¢ to sell and 58¢ to buy, within a cent of my number, and a one-cent gap does not pay Kalshi’s fee of about 1.7¢. From kickoff I read the moneyline, the spread and the total against the live game, and every bet I make goes on my card.
Before you copy it: I checked every leg against Weeks 1–3. Twenty-seven of thirty cleared. Warren’s 13 carries (10, 11, 17) and Judkins’ 30 yards (33, 21, 70) are the weak spots.
Kalshi public API, read 2026-09-29; ESPN box scores, Weeks 1–3.
Exclusive Tuna Desk writer. Real money on Kalshi.
Tuna’s ticket is one Kalshi combo, placed before kickoff: $178.93 pays $685.56, 3.83x, so it needs to cash more than 26.1% of the time. Eight overs on volume, four per offense: Deshaun Watson 125+ passing yards and 15+ rushing yards, Aaron Rodgers 150+ passing yards, two catches and 15 yards each for Harold Fannin Jr. and DK Metcalf, and Roman Wilson 15+ receiving yards.
Against Agent Brad. Three legs are on both tickets: Watson’s 125 passing yards, Fannin’s two catches and Metcalf’s two catches. Tuna has no running back, and took the Roman Wilson yards leg at 61¢ that Brad looked at and passed on. Lined up against Weeks 1–3, all eight of Tuna’s legs cleared every week, 24 of 24; Brad’s ten cleared 27 of 30.
Read the column: all eight legs
From the Kalshi combo post, read 2026-10-01; Weeks 1–3 from player game logs. A writer’s real-money ticket, shown as placed, not advice.
Every line below is copied from the named source on the date shown, with its book where the source names one. Lines move, so check your own board. Sportsbooks are 21+.
| Player | Market | Line | Price | Where |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | Passing yards | Over 212.5 | -114 | Bleacher Nation, Sep 28 |
| Aaron Rodgers | Passing TDs | Over 1.5 | +164 | Bleacher Nation, Sep 28 |
| Jaylen Warren | Anytime TD | Yes | -250 | Fanatics, Sep 29 |
| Quinshon Judkins | Anytime TD | Yes | +105 | Fanatics, Sep 29 |
| DK Metcalf | Anytime TD | Yes | +290 | Fanatics, Sep 29 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | Anytime TD | Yes | +310 | Fanatics, Sep 29 |
| Denzel Boston | Anytime TD | Yes | +325 | Fanatics, Sep 29 |
| KC Concepcion | Anytime TD | Yes | +250 | Fanatics, Sep 29 |
| Deshaun Watson | Pass attempts | 28.5 | Price not printed | Sports Gambling Podcast, Sep 29 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | Receptions | 4.5 | Price not printed | Sports Gambling Podcast, Sep 29 |
Pittsburgh has 6 takeaways to Cleveland’s 2 and 8 sacks, and it ran for 138 yards once the line was reshuffled. Early money at Borgata came in on the Steelers laying 2.5, and the book told VegasInsider: “I expect the public to continue to support Pittsburgh here.”
Cleveland is 2-1 against the spread this season when getting 2.5 points or more, per FanDuel Research. It held Carolina to 18 points and a season-low 98 rushing yards with 3 sacks, and it is at home against a team that hasn’t won a Thursday road game since 2007.
PFR · VegasInsider · FanDuel Research · ClevelandBrowns.com. These are the arguments each side’s backers make, not our pick. Both tickets on this game hit every leg before the winning kick: Exclusive Tuna’s 8 of 8 and Agent Brad’s 10 of 10. See the result
| Going in | PIT Pittsburgh SteelersPIT | CLE Cleveland BrownsCLE |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Side | On the road | At home |
| The posted line | −2.5 | +2.5 |
| Implied points computed | 20.5 | 18 |
| Passing leader 3 games | Aaron Rodgers66/113, 700 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT | Deshaun Watson56/82, 587 yds, 5 TD, 1 INT |
| Rushing leader 3 games | Jaylen Warren38 car, 216 yds, 0 TD | Quinshon Judkins42 car, 124 yds, 0 TD |
| Receiving leader 3 games | Roman Wilson11 rec, 114 yds, 1 TD | Denzel Boston9 rec, 195 yds, 2 TD |
Records, venue, spread and total from the ESPN scoreboard, read 2026-09-29.1 Player lines are three-game totals summed from the completed Week 1 to Week 3 box scores.2 Implied points is half the total moved half the spread, which is arithmetic on the two numbers above, not a projection.
Six players, the three who have produced most on each side. Every number here is the three-game box score total divided by the three games played, or divided by touches. It is what happened, not a projection.2
Where the points are priced. The spread and the total put Pittsburgh Steelers at about 20.5 and Cleveland Browns at about 18. That gap is the first thing a start-or-sit call turns on: the same player is worth more in a game his side is priced to lead than in one it is priced to chase. It is arithmetic on the posted line, not a score projection.
| Player | Yards | Points | Scores |
|---|---|---|---|
| PITPittsburgh Steelers | |||
| Aaron RodgersQB · 58.4% on 113 attempts | 233.3pass yds a game | 13.3half-PPR a game | 1.34 TD in three |
| Roman WilsonREC · 11 catches | 38.0yds a game | 7.6half-PPR a game | 0.31 TD in three |
| Jaylen WarrenRB · 38 carries | 72.0yds a game | 7.2half-PPR a game | 0.00 TD in three |
| CLECleveland Browns | |||
| Deshaun WatsonQB · 68.3% on 82 attempts | 195.7pass yds a game | 13.8half-PPR a game | 1.75 TD in three |
| Denzel BostonREC · 9 catches | 65.0yds a game | 12.0half-PPR a game | 0.72 TD in three |
| Quinshon JudkinsRB · 42 carries | 41.3yds a game | 4.1half-PPR a game | 0.00 TD in three |
Half-PPR: 0.1 a rushing or receiving yard, 0.5 a catch, 6 a touchdown, 0.04 a passing yard, 4 a passing touchdown, minus 2 an interception. Full-PPR and standard leagues score catches differently, so the weights are printed rather than assumed. Three games played by every team at the time of this read.
The posted line has Pittsburgh Steelers favoured by 2.5 on the road, with a total of 38.5. A spread is the market's estimate of the margin, not a result; the Kalshi contract below prices the win outright.
The two venue prices sit at the top of this page and are read live when it loads. A contract settles at $1.00 if that team wins and $0 if it loses, so a price in cents is that market’s implied chance of the win. Prices are the venues’, not our picks, and the two rarely agree to the cent.
A spread and a contract price are two different questions. The spread is the market’s estimate of the margin; the contract prices the win outright, and it is the one you can sell before the game ends. Books differ on the spread itself: our read found two games where a second book had a different number the same afternoon.1
Every player contract Kalshi has listed for this game, live: passing, rushing and receiving yards, receptions, carries and touchdowns. Each chip is a threshold and the price to buy YES on it.
Agent Brad’s 10 legs, at the Kalshi asks when they were priced, 2:38 PM PT Tue, Sep 29
The live board for every player loads here when Kalshi answers. Market prices, not our picks.
We do not publish a prop line we have not captured with a timestamp, so none appear here. What follows is our own number from the box scores, and the math for turning your board’s line into something you can compare to a price.
Passing yards
Aaron Rodgers PIT
233.3 a game
58.4% on 113 attempts through three games, 6.2 yds per attempt.
Other side: Deshaun Watson (CLE) at 195.7
Rushing yards
Jaylen Warren PIT
72.0 a game
38 carries through three games, 5.7 yds per carry.
Other side: Quinshon Judkins (CLE) at 41.3
Receiving yards
Denzel Boston CLE
65.0 a game
9 catches through three games, 21.7 yds per catch.
Other side: Roman Wilson (PIT) at 38.0
Ours, from the box scores, not a posted line. Put each against whatever your board shows: if the board is well under our number the over is the question, and if it is well over, the under is. A number that sits on top of ours is telling you the board has read the same three games we have.
Every leg has to hit. Two legs you think are 60% each come to 36% together, not 60. Three come to 22%. That multiplication is the whole game, and it is the reason a board can offer a number that looks generous and is still a bad price.
Work your break-even the other way round. If your board pays N times the entry on an L-leg play, the entry needs to win 1 ÷ N of the time to break even, so each leg needs to hit the L-th root of that. A 2-leg play paying 3× needs each leg at about 57.7%. A 4-leg play paying 10× needs each at about 56.2%. Check your own board’s multipliers: they differ by state, by board and by promotion, so the number above is the method, not your terms.
A quarterback going over his passing yards and his top receiver going over his receiving yards are close to the same bet twice. That correlation is the one real lever in pick’em: it makes a correlated pair land together more often than the multiplication above suggests, and miss together just as often. Correlate on purpose or not at all.
The contract on the board above can be sold at any point before the game ends, so a position that moves your way early can be closed for a profit without waiting to find out. A pick’em entry is locked until every leg settles. That is the structural difference between the two products, and it is worth more than any single line. How the fee works on a contract
Agent Brad’s ticket on this game is player props, above. This part is about the game itself.
The question on Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Browns are 2-1 and they are at home, and the line makes them the underdog by 2.5. Decide what chance you would give them, in cents, before you read the board. If your number is above the ask, that is the trade; if it is not, there is no trade here.
The question on Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers are 2-1 and favoured by 2.5. A favourite contract costs most of a dollar, so the money at risk is large against the money to be made. Work out what you lose if it goes wrong before you decide what you make if it goes right.
Whatever you decide, write the entry, the sell target and the hold rule before kickoff, and remember the fee is largest near 50¢. How the fee works
The Pittsburgh Steelers are 2.5-point road favorites over the Cleveland Browns, with FanDuel at Steelers -144 and Browns +122 as read September 28 to 29, 2026. On Kalshi the Steelers contract asked 58 cents on September 29, about a 58% chance of a Pittsburgh win.
The Steelers play the Browns on Thursday, October 1, 2026, at 8:15 PM ET (5:15 PM PT) at Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland. It is the Week 4 Thursday Night Football game, streaming on Prime Video.
The Steelers vs Browns total is 38.5 at FanDuel as of September 29, 2026, with the under at -118. Covers listed an early 37.5 and Fanatics has 38. The under is 22-14 in the last 36 Steelers-Browns meetings, per Covers.
On September 29, 2026, Kalshi's game market had Pittsburgh at 57 cents bid and 58 cents ask, and Cleveland at 42 bid and 43 ask. A 58-cent contract pays $1 if Pittsburgh wins, a 42-cent profit before fees.
FanDuel's Steelers -144 / Browns +122, with the book's cut removed, works out to about 56.7% Pittsburgh. Kalshi's 58-cent ask is about 1.3 cents above that, and the taker fee adds about 1.7 cents, so it is a cent or two either way, not a free lunch (September 29, 2026 prices).
On the September 28, 2026 estimated reports, Steelers RB Rico Dowdle (toe) did not practice and CBs Jalen Ramsey (wrist) and Brandin Echols (concussion) were limited. For the Browns, C Elgton Jenkins (concussion), G Teven Jenkins (back) and WR Tylan Wallace (knee) did not practice, and OT Tytus Howard, CB Tyson Campbell and S Grant Delpit were limited.
The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns are both 2-1 going into Week 4, and every AFC North team is 2-1. Pittsburgh beat Cincinnati 30-27 in Week 3 and Cleveland beat Carolina 21-18 in its home opener.
Dimers' model gave the Pittsburgh Steelers a 60.1% chance to beat the Cleveland Browns and projected a 21-18 Steelers win as of September 29, 2026. Kalshi priced Pittsburgh at about 58% the same day. Those are a model and a market, not a pick from PM Countdown.
Half the total moved half the spread puts Pittsburgh Steelers at about 20.5 points and Cleveland Browns at about 18. That is arithmetic on the two posted numbers, not a score projection, and it is the figure most fantasy decisions on this game turn on.
Through three games the leaders are Aaron Rodgers of Pittsburgh Steelers at 13.3 half-PPR points a game (58.4% on 113 attempts through three games), and Deshaun Watson of Cleveland Browns at 13.8 half-PPR points a game (68.3% on 82 attempts through three games). Those are half-PPR points from the completed box scores divided by games played, so they describe what has happened rather than what will. Scoring weights and the full six-player table are on this page.
We do not publish a prop line we have not captured from the app with a timestamp, so no posted line appears here. Our own figures from the box scores are Aaron Rodgers at 233.3 passing a game, Jaylen Warren at 72.0 rushing a game, Denzel Boston at 65.0 receiving a game. Put each against whatever your board shows and decide which side of it you are on.
A pick'em entry is a parlay, so every leg has to land: two legs you price at 60 per cent are 36 per cent together, and three are 22 per cent. If your board pays N times the entry on an L-leg play, the entry needs to win one divided by N of the time, so each leg needs the L-th root of that. A two-leg play paying 3x needs each leg at about 57.7 per cent, and a four-leg play paying 10x needs each at about 56.2 per cent. Multipliers differ by state, board and promotion, so use your own terms.
Every stored figure on this page came from one of these, read 2026-09-29. Lines move and injury news lands after that; the prices in the strip and on the board are read live when the page loads, not written into it.
PM Countdown is not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi, Polymarket, ESPN or the NFL. Prices shown are the venues’, not our picks.
21+Only risk what you can afford to lose. Set a money limit before you start, take profits on purpose and stop when you hit your limit. Not financial or betting advice. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET.
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