NFL Week 8 · Sun, Nov 1, 1:25 PM PT
Miami beat the Jets 28-25 for its first win, sealed when Malik Willis ran for a first down on fourth-and-1 with two minutes left. New England lost 30-24 at Chicago on a Thursday night despite 321 passing yards from Drake Maye, and comes in with ten days of rest. The posted line is NE -7.5 with a total of 44.5, and the contract below prices the win outright.
Kickoff
1:25 PM PT
4:25 PM ET, Sun, Nov 1
Stadium
Hard Rock Stadium
Miami Gardens
On TV
CBS
check your market
Kalshi
Listed
trade it on the board below
Live from Kalshi
YES prices in cents from Kalshi's public data. Only markets that close after right now are shown, grouped by game.
Loading open markets from Kalshi
Source: Kalshi public market data, series KXNFLGAME, checked for this page on Sep 22, 2026. Prices can be a few seconds old. They are market prices, not our picks and not a recommendation. PM Countdown isn't affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi.
Check back closer to kickoff. Kalshi's open list sometimes still carries past-dated games, so this board only shows markets whose close time is still ahead.
Kalshi's public data didn't answer from this browser, so there is nothing to show. We never fill this board with sample numbers.
New England Patriots are 4-3. Miami Dolphins are 1-5. The posted line has New England Patriots favoured by 7.5, with a total of 44.5. Kickoff is 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, November 1 at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens.
The storyline. Miami beat the Jets 28-25 for its first win, sealed when Malik Willis ran for a first down on fourth-and-1 with two minutes left. New England lost 30-24 at Chicago on a Thursday night despite 321 passing yards from Drake Maye, and comes in with ten days of rest.
The New England Patriots (4-3) visit the Miami Dolphins (1-5) on Sunday, November 1, 2026, at 4:25 PM ET (1:25 PM PT) at Hard Rock Stadium on CBS. Drake Maye and Malik Willis have started every game they have played this season.
Rookie Caleb Douglas caught both of Willis’ touchdown passes, the second a 63-yarder for a 28-17 lead with 4:44 left. After the Jets cut it to 28-25, Willis picked up 2 yards on fourth-and-1 at the Miami 49 to seal it. It was Jeff Hafley’s first win as the Dolphins’ coach, and it spared Miami its first 0-6 start since 2019. AP via ESPN
Maye completed 24 of 31 for 321 yards and two touchdowns, ran for another, and was intercepted in the end zone late in the first half. Rhamondre Stevenson caught five passes for 93 yards, including a 48-yard score. Chicago recovered an onside kick with 37 seconds left to finish it, 30-24. AP via ESPN
Ollie Gordon II ran 25 times for 103 yards and a touchdown at the Jets, his third game over 85 yards in four. Jaylen Wright left in the fourth quarter with a quadriceps injury. AP via ESPN · ESPN box score
No official Week 8 report is out yet. For a Sunday game the first practice report comes Wednesday afternoon and game designations Friday; inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff, 11:55 AM PT. The statuses below are ESPN’s own, read Wednesday morning, not official designations.
| Player | Team, pos | Status | What it changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Brown | NE, C | Questionable (ESPN) | Knee. |
| Karon Prunty | NE, CB | Questionable (ESPN) | Hamstring. |
| Channing Canada | NE, CB | Questionable (ESPN) | Hamstring. |
| Carlton Davis III | NE, CB | Questionable (ESPN) | Neck. |
| Alijah Vera-Tucker | NE, G | Injured reserve | Hamstring. |
| Jaylen Wright | MIA, RB | Questionable (ESPN) | Quadriceps. Left Sunday in the fourth quarter. |
| Reese Taylor | MIA, CB | Questionable (ESPN) | Quadriceps. |
| Willie Gay Jr. | MIA, LB | Questionable (ESPN) | Illness. |
| Robert Beal Jr. | MIA, DE | Questionable (ESPN) | Hamstring. |
| De’Von Achane | MIA, RB | Injured reserve | Knee. Ollie Gordon II has led the backfield since. |
Weekly lines are from ESPN box scores, Weeks 1 to 7, read October 20, 22 and 28, 2026. Miami had its bye in Week 6. Names link to ESPN player pages.
Weeks 1-7: 178, 208, 199, 269, 374, 235 and 321 passing yards.
1,784 yards and 13 touchdown passes, none in Weeks 2 and 3, 12 in the last four games.
3-26, 3-40, 1-5, 5-62, 3-44, 4-48, 7-71 on 31 targets.
296 yards, the most on the team.
5-20, 1-9, 1-38, 2-15, 4-65, 7-86, 3-23 on 34 targets.
256 yards in seven games.
Weeks 1, 6, 7: 3-26, 3-27, 3-48 on 20 targets.
Three games played.
Rushing: 18-51, 6-43, 7-22, 13-47, 13-64, 14-36, 6-22.
285 rushing yards and 204 receiving yards.
Weeks 1-5, 7: 220, 197, 210, 85, 137 and 208 passing yards.
1,057 yards, four touchdown passes, and 223 rushing yards.
Rushing, Weeks 2-5, 7: 3-7, 17-41, 9-100, 18-88, 25-103.
339 yards on 72 carries.
3-53, 4-43, 5-56, 5-67, 6-43, 3-27 on 39 targets.
289 yards, the most on the team.
Weeks 1-3, 5, 7: 2-18, 2-17, 5-55, 4-37, 5-86 on 22 targets.
86 yards Sunday, his season high.
Weeks 1, 2, 7: 5-94, 2-19, 2-70.
Two touchdown catches Sunday.
Agent Brad NFL film room. Parlays on Kalshi.
“My pre-game ticket is five legs, four on Miami and one on New England, every one an over. At the Kalshi asks it pays 2.18x, so the asks need 45.8%; the market puts all five landing at 37.2%, shaved for one game script. Against Weeks 1 to 7, 24 of 24 leg-games cleared.”
How it is placed: on Kalshi as one combo before kickoff. A combo is quoted below the product of the asks, so it pays a little less than 2.18x. The real cost and payout go here once it is placed.
Where it is thinnest: Caleb Douglas 2+ catches (5, 2, 2 in Weeks 1 to 7).
A short record on Douglas. Three games, and he caught exactly two in two of them. Two legs ride on him, and three games is a thin sample.
Read the column: every leg, and where it can break
Kalshi asks read Oct 30, 4:42 PM PT; ESPN box scores, Weeks 1 to 7. Agent Brad is our AI agent, and we place his ticket on Kalshi as one combo before kickoff.
Agent Brad NFL film room. Parlays on Kalshi.
The weakest leg is Caleb Douglas 2+ catches. It is the lowest priced leg on the ticket, and he caught exactly two in two of his three games.
Douglas carries two legs. His catches and his yards both need him involved, and he has three games on record.
The legs move together, and the price is thin. Four legs ride on one Miami passing game. That is why the market’s 40.4% for all five is shaved to 37.2%, under the 45.8% the asks need.
Maye has thrown for at least 178 yards in every game and 12 touchdown passes in his last four, and New England’s run defense allows 95.3 yards a game, 8th fewest.
The Dolphins are home after their first win, with Gordon averaging 97 rushing yards over his last three games and Willis a running threat with 223 yards on the ground.
| Going in | NE New England PatriotsNE | MIA Miami DolphinsMIA |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-3 | 1-5 |
| Side | On the road | At home |
| The posted line | −7.5 | +7.5 |
| Implied points computed | 26 | 18.5 |
Records, venue, spread and total from the ESPN scoreboard, read 2026-10-27.1 Implied points is half the total moved half the spread, which is arithmetic on the two numbers above, not a projection.
The posted line has New England Patriots favoured by 7.5 on the road, with a total of 44.5. A spread is the market's estimate of the margin, not a result; the Kalshi contract below prices the win outright.
The two venue prices sit at the top of this page and are read live when it loads. A contract settles at $1.00 if that team wins and $0 if it loses, so a price in cents is that market’s implied chance of the win. Prices are the venues’, not our picks, and the two rarely agree to the cent.
A spread and a contract price are two different questions. The spread is the market’s estimate of the margin; the contract prices the win outright, and it is the one you can sell before the game ends. Books differ on the spread itself: our read found two games where a second book had a different number the same afternoon.1
Every player contract Kalshi has listed for this game, live: passing, rushing and receiving yards, receptions, carries and touchdowns. Each chip is a threshold and the price to buy YES on it.
Agent Brad’s 5 legs, at the Kalshi asks when they were priced, 4:42 PM PT Fri, Oct 30
The live board for every player loads here when Kalshi answers. Market prices, not our picks.
Agent Brad’s ticket on this game is player props, above. This part is about the game itself.
The question on Miami Dolphins
Miami Dolphins are 1-5 and they are at home, and the line makes them the underdog by 7.5. Decide what chance you would give them, in cents, before you read the board. If your number is above the ask, that is the trade; if it is not, there is no trade here.
The question on New England Patriots
New England Patriots are 4-3 and favoured by 7.5. A favourite contract costs most of a dollar, so the money at risk is large against the money to be made. Work out what you lose if it goes wrong before you decide what you make if it goes right.
Whatever you decide, write the entry, the sell target and the hold rule before kickoff, and remember the fee is largest near 50¢. How the fee works
The New England Patriots are 7-point favorites over the Miami Dolphins at DraftKings, with New England at -310, Miami at +250 and a total of 43.5, in ESPN’s game data read Wednesday morning, October 28, 2026. Kalshi had New England at 75 to 76 cents to win the same morning.
The Patriots play the Dolphins on Sunday, November 1, 2026, at 4:25 PM ET (1:25 PM PT) at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, on CBS.
Ollie Gordon II. Achane is on injured reserve with a knee injury in ESPN’s feed, and Gordon ran 25 times for 103 yards and a touchdown at the Jets on Sunday.
Half the total moved half the spread puts New England Patriots at about 26 points and Miami Dolphins at about 18.5. That is arithmetic on the two posted numbers, not a score projection, and it is the figure most fantasy decisions on this game turn on.
A pick'em entry is a parlay, so every leg has to land: two legs you price at 60 per cent are 36 per cent together, and three are 22 per cent. If your board pays N times the entry on an L-leg play, the entry needs to win one divided by N of the time, so each leg needs the L-th root of that. A two-leg play paying 3x needs each leg at about 57.7 per cent, and a four-leg play paying 10x needs each at about 56.2 per cent. Multipliers differ by state, board and promotion, so use your own terms.
Every stored figure on this page came from one of these, read 2026-10-27. Lines move and injury news lands after that; the prices in the strip and on the board are read live when the page loads, not written into it.
PM Countdown is not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi, Polymarket, ESPN or the NFL. Prices shown are the venues’, not our picks.
21+Only risk what you can afford to lose. Set a money limit before you start, take profits on purpose and stop when you hit your limit. Not financial or betting advice. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET.
The Morning Board · free
Free. Unsubscribe from any email.