NFL Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 10:00 AM PT
Caleb Williams is close to returning from a hamstring injury, and Michael Penix Jr. is waiting on imaging for his ribs. Chicago is 3-2 after going 2-1 with backup quarterbacks and losing 31-7 at Green Bay. Atlanta is 2-3, 2-1 with Penix starting, and lost 30-23 to Baltimore in overtime on Sunday night. The posted line is CHI -3 with a total of 48.5, and the contract below prices the win outright.
Kickoff
10:00 AM PT
1:00 PM ET, Sun, Oct 18
Stadium
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Atlanta
On TV
FOX
check your market
Kalshi
Listed
trade it on the board below
Live from Kalshi
YES prices in cents from Kalshi's public data. Only markets that close after right now are shown, grouped by game.
Loading open markets from Kalshi
Source: Kalshi public market data, series KXNFLGAME, checked for this page on Sep 22, 2026. Prices can be a few seconds old. They are market prices, not our picks and not a recommendation. PM Countdown isn't affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi.
Check back closer to kickoff. Kalshi's open list sometimes still carries past-dated games, so this board only shows markets whose close time is still ahead.
Kalshi's public data didn't answer from this browser, so there is nothing to show. We never fill this board with sample numbers.
Chicago Bears are 3-2. Atlanta Falcons are 2-3. The posted line has Chicago Bears favoured by 3, with a total of 48.5. Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 18 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta.
The storyline. Caleb Williams is close to returning from a hamstring injury, and Michael Penix Jr. is waiting on imaging for his ribs. Chicago is 3-2 after going 2-1 with backup quarterbacks and losing 31-7 at Green Bay. Atlanta is 2-3, 2-1 with Penix starting, and lost 30-23 to Baltimore in overtime on Sunday night.
Bears coach Ben Johnson said Caleb Williams “might be available” at Atlanta after the quarterback missed a third straight game with a right hamstring injury. Williams was hurt in a 9-3 loss to Minnesota on September 20 and has returned to practice. “He’s on track,” Johnson said. “I think it’s going to be close.” NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport said “all signs point to Caleb Williams being back on the field this week.” theScore · Bleacher Nation
Case Keenum started a 27-7 win over Philadelphia and Tyson Bagent a 23-12 win over the Jets, but Sunday at Green Bay went 31-7 the other way. Bagent went 12 of 21 for 87 yards with two interceptions before Keenum replaced him early in the fourth quarter, and Keenum threw an interception and lost a fumble on a strip sack. Keenum said the Bears’ identity is “getting forged sometimes through fire.” theScore · Pro-Football-Reference
Chicago came into Week 5 leading the NFL at 196.3 rushing yards a game, then ran for 81 on 24 carries at Green Bay with Kyle Monangai out with thumb and toe injuries. Atlanta came into Sunday night with the league’s top-ranked run defense, per AP, but Derrick Henry still ran for 102 yards in Baltimore’s overtime win. theScore · AP via theScore
Michael Penix Jr. was sacked by Tavius Robinson and fumbled with 19 seconds left in regulation Sunday night, and left with a rib injury. He came back for one incomplete pass but could not get comfortable enough to play in overtime, and Tua Tagovailoa threw the interception that ended the game. Kevin Stefanski said Penix would have imaging Monday. Penix said “it’s not something that is going to be a long-term thing.” If he cannot play, Tagovailoa is next in line. NFL.com · theScore · Sports Illustrated
Penix tore knee ligaments in November 2025 and was not cleared to fully practice until August 22. Cooper Rush started the first two games, both losses, 20-13 at Pittsburgh and 34-3 to Carolina, and threw a league-high four interceptions in that span. With Penix starting, Atlanta won 35-14 at Green Bay and 45-24 at New Orleans before Sunday’s 30-23 overtime loss to Baltimore. NFL.com · Pro-Football-Reference · AP via theScore
The Falcons led 23-15 late in regulation after Jessie Bates III returned a fumble 36 yards for a touchdown and Penix found Kyle Pitts for a 5-yard score. Tyler Huntley, starting for an injured Lamar Jackson, threw a 7-yard touchdown with 40 seconds left, Derrick Henry ran in the two-point try, and Huntley won it on a 1-yard sneak in overtime. Left tackle Jake Matthews made his 200th straight start, the longest active streak in the NFL, per AP. AP via theScore
The last time these teams met, the Bears won 37-17 at Soldier Field on December 31, 2023; they did not play in 2024 or 2025. Chicago opened this season with a 59-37 win at Carolina. CBS Sports · Pro-Football-Reference 2024 · Pro-Football-Reference 2025 · Pro-Football-Reference 2026
DraftKings had the Bears by 3 with a total of 48.5, the Bears at -175 and the Falcons at +145, as read on ESPN on October 12. Lines move through the week; the live Kalshi price is on this page. ESPN odds (DraftKings)
Statuses are from ESPN’s NFL injury page, read Friday, October 16, at 10:45 AM PT, with the practice notes it carries. Teams set final game statuses on Friday afternoon and inactives come out 90 minutes before kickoff, so a Questionable here can still move.
| Player | Team, pos | Status | What it changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | CHI, QB | Questionable | Hamstring. He said Thursday he does not know if he will play. He has not played since Week 2, so Chicago’s last three games were without him. |
| Kyle Monangai | CHI, RB | Questionable | Toe. Did not practice Thursday. |
| Kyler Gordon | CHI, CB | Out | Calf. |
| T.J. Edwards | CHI, LB | Doubtful | Hamstring. |
| Dayo Odeyingbo | CHI, DE | Doubtful | Quadriceps. Ben Johnson expects him to miss time but avoid injured reserve. |
| Tyrique Stevenson Sr. | CHI, CB | Questionable | Hip. Limited Wednesday. |
| Za’Darius Smith | ATL, DE | Questionable | Neck. Limited Thursday. |
| C.J. Henderson | ATL, CB | Questionable | Groin. Did not practice Wednesday. |
Weekly lines are from ESPN box scores, read October 12, 2026. Names link to ESPN player pages.
Weeks 1-2: 21/29, 269 yds · 15/26, 138. Runs: 10-65, 5-42. Missed Weeks 3-5.
407 passing yards and 107 rushing yards in two games. He ran 10 times for 65 yards in the 59-37 opener at Carolina.
Weeks 1-5 rushing: 18-124, 16-45, 20-84, 15-58, 9-43. Receiving: 1-10, 5-54, 2-4, 2-16, 4-30.
354 rushing yards on 78 carries, 4.5 a carry, plus 14 catches for 114. He scored Chicago’s only touchdown at Green Bay on fourth down from the 1.
Weeks 1-4 rushing: 10-100, 10-47, 10-31, 30-146. Missed Week 5.
324 yards on 60 carries, 5.4 a carry, including 30 carries for 146 against the Jets. He sat out Green Bay with thumb and toe injuries.
Weeks 1-5: 5-63, 3-32, 7-61, 4-63, 4-47 on 35 targets.
23 catches for 266 yards, with at least three catches every week. He also has 7 carries for 22 yards.
Weeks 3-5: 18/25, 256 yds · 15/20, 223 · 19/32, 240. Did not play Weeks 1 and 2.
719 passing yards on 52 of 77 in three starts, with Atlanta 2-1 in them. He is back from a torn ACL and now has a rib injury.
Weeks 1-5 rushing: 21-83, 16-72, 29-194, 19-145, 17-86. Receiving: 8-90, 3-9, 2-19, 1-2, 4-32.
580 rushing yards on 102 carries, 5.7 a carry, plus 18 catches for 152. He ran for 194 at Green Bay and 145 at New Orleans.
Weeks 1-5: 2-29, 4-51, 9-194, 5-96, 7-118 on 37 targets.
27 catches for 488 yards, 408 of them in Penix’s three starts. Tagovailoa’s game-ending interception was thrown his way.
Weeks 1-5: 0-0, 1-15, 1-5, 3-47, 5-42 on 15 targets.
10 catches for 109 yards, 8 for 89 over the last two games, and the 5-yard touchdown from Penix against Baltimore.
Chicago led the NFL in rushing coming into Week 5, Swift has 354 yards and Monangai is averaging 5.4 a carry, and the Bears went 2-1 with backup quarterbacks. Williams is close to returning, Atlanta’s quarterback is dealing with a rib injury, and Chicago won the last meeting 37-17.
Atlanta is at home, 2-1 in Penix’s starts with wins of 35-14 at Green Bay and 45-24 at New Orleans, and came into Week 5 with the top-ranked run defense. Bijan Robinson has 580 rushing yards at 5.7 a carry, and London has 408 receiving yards with Penix. The Bears scored 7 points at Green Bay without Williams and Monangai.
These are the arguments each side’s backers make, not a pick. theScore · AP via theScore · Pro-Football-Reference Bears · Pro-Football-Reference Falcons · ESPN scoreboard (DraftKings)
| Going in | CHI Chicago BearsCHI | ATL Atlanta FalconsATL |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Side | On the road | At home |
| The posted line | −3 | +3 |
| Implied points computed | 25.75 | 22.75 |
Records, venue, spread and total from the ESPN scoreboard, read 2026-10-12.1 Implied points is half the total moved half the spread, which is arithmetic on the two numbers above, not a projection.
The posted line has Chicago Bears favoured by 3 on the road, with a total of 48.5. A spread is the market's estimate of the margin, not a result; the Kalshi contract below prices the win outright.
The two venue prices sit at the top of this page and are read live when it loads. A contract settles at $1.00 if that team wins and $0 if it loses, so a price in cents is that market’s implied chance of the win. Prices are the venues’, not our picks, and the two rarely agree to the cent.
A spread and a contract price are two different questions. The spread is the market’s estimate of the margin; the contract prices the win outright, and it is the one you can sell before the game ends. Books differ on the spread itself: our read found two games where a second book had a different number the same afternoon.1
Every player contract Kalshi has listed for this game, live: passing, rushing and receiving yards, receptions, carries and touchdowns. Each chip is a threshold and the price to buy YES on it.
Reading the Kalshi board.
No plan is posted on this game. The props section above is about one player; this is about the game itself.
The question on Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons are 2-3 and they are at home, and the line makes them the underdog by 3. Decide what chance you would give them, in cents, before you read the board. If your number is above the ask, that is the trade; if it is not, there is no trade here.
The question on Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears are 3-2 and favoured by 3. A favourite contract costs most of a dollar, so the money at risk is large against the money to be made. Work out what you lose if it goes wrong before you decide what you make if it goes right.
Whatever you decide, write the entry, the sell target and the hold rule before kickoff, and remember the fee is largest near 50¢. How the fee works
The Chicago Bears are 3-point favorites over the Atlanta Falcons at DraftKings, with the Bears at -175, the Falcons at +145 and a total of 48.5, as read October 12, 2026. Lines move through the week.
The Bears play the Falcons on Sunday, October 18, 2026, at 1:00 PM ET (10:00 AM PT) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The game is on Fox.
It is not confirmed. Williams has missed three games with a right hamstring injury. Ben Johnson said he “might be available” and “it’s going to be close,” and Ian Rapoport reported on October 12 that all signs point to Williams playing this week.
Penix said it is “not something that is going to be a long-term thing.” He was hurt late in regulation of the 30-23 overtime loss to Baltimore on October 11, and Kevin Stefanski said he would have imaging on Monday, October 12. Tua Tagovailoa is next in line.
The Bears beat the Falcons 37-17 at Soldier Field on December 31, 2023. The teams did not meet in 2024 or 2025.
Half the total moved half the spread puts Chicago Bears at about 25.75 points and Atlanta Falcons at about 22.75. That is arithmetic on the two posted numbers, not a score projection, and it is the figure most fantasy decisions on this game turn on.
A pick'em entry is a parlay, so every leg has to land: two legs you price at 60 per cent are 36 per cent together, and three are 22 per cent. If your board pays N times the entry on an L-leg play, the entry needs to win one divided by N of the time, so each leg needs the L-th root of that. A two-leg play paying 3x needs each leg at about 57.7 per cent, and a four-leg play paying 10x needs each at about 56.2 per cent. Multipliers differ by state, board and promotion, so use your own terms.
Every stored figure on this page came from one of these, read 2026-10-12. Lines move and injury news lands after that; the prices in the strip and on the board are read live when the page loads, not written into it.
PM Countdown is not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi, Polymarket, ESPN or the NFL. Prices shown are the venues’, not our picks.
21+Only risk what you can afford to lose. Set a money limit before you start, take profits on purpose and stop when you hit your limit. Not financial or betting advice. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET.
The Morning Board · free
Free. Unsubscribe from any email.