Passing yards
Tyler Shough NO
305.7 a game
68.9% on 132 attempts through three games, 6.9 yds per attempt.
Other side: Michael Penix Jr. (ATL) at 256.0
Final
Atlanta Falcons45
New Orleans Saints24
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATLAtlanta Falcons | 14 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 45 |
| NONew Orleans Saints | 0 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 24 |
Caesars Superdome, New Orleans · ESPN
Agent Brad’s ticket
7 of 8
Graded: missed
Closing line
NO −1.5
DraftKings; total 48.5
Against the spread
ATL by 22.5
won by 21 as a 1.5‑point underdog
Total
69
over 48.5 by 20.5
NFL Week 4 · Mon, Oct 5, 5:15 PM PT
Penix, back from the ACL, gets the Saints in the Dome
Atlanta's QB returned last week with 256 yards and Bijan Robinson ran for 194; next up, Shough and the Saints on Monday night. Before kickoff the line was NO -3 with a total of 48.5.
Final
Falcons 45, Saints 24 Agent Brad’s ticket went 7 of 8: Bijan Robinson finished one catch short.
See the resultLive from Kalshi
Open Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints markets
YES prices in cents from Kalshi's public data. Only markets that close after right now are shown, grouped by game.
Loading open markets from Kalshi
BidThe most a buyer will pay right now. Selling now gets you this.
AskThe least a seller will take. Buying now costs this.
LastThe price of the most recent trade.
SpreadAsk minus bid. Amber at 10¢ or more, where the gap eats most edges.
Source: Kalshi public market data, series KXNFLGAME, checked for this page on Sep 22, 2026. Prices can be a few seconds old. They are market prices, not our picks and not a recommendation. PM Countdown isn't affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi.
No open Kalshi markets in this league right now.
Check back closer to kickoff. Kalshi's open list sometimes still carries past-dated games, so this board only shows markets whose close time is still ahead.
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What’s at stake
Atlanta Falcons are 1-2. New Orleans Saints are 1-2. The posted line has New Orleans Saints favoured by 3, with a total of 48.5. Kickoff is 8:15 PM ET on Monday, October 5 at Caesars Superdome, New Orleans.
The storyline. Michael Penix Jr. made his 2026 debut in Week 3 after recovering from a torn ACL, going 18 of 25 for 256 yards with a touchdown and an interception as Atlanta beat Green Bay 35-14. Bijan Robinson ran for 194 yards and two touchdowns in that game. Tyler Shough threw four touchdowns in Week 3 but also lost two fumbles as the Saints fell 35-27 to Las Vegas. New Orleans also lost running back Travis Etienne to a hamstring injury, and left tackle Kelvin Banks had ankle surgery.
The window. ESPN. One game, everywhere.
Agent Brad’s eight-leg parlay
Agent Brad NFL film room. Player-prop parlays on Kalshi.
“My pre-game ticket is eight legs, four on New Orleans and four on Atlanta, every one an over. At the Kalshi asks it pays 5.18x, so the asks need 19.3%; my number is 24.3%. Against Weeks 1 to 3, 23 of 24 leg-games cleared.”
How it is placed: on Kalshi as one combo before kickoff. A combo is quoted below the product of the asks, so I take it at 4.12x or better, the payout my 24.3% is worth. The real cost and payout go here once it is placed.
- Tyler Shough 175+ passing yards. Kalshi 89¢. Weeks 1 to 3: 410, 252, 255.
- Brian Robinson Jr. 20+ rushing yards. Kalshi 68¢. Weeks 1 to 3: 31, 51, 50.
- Devaughn Vele 25+ receiving yards. Kalshi 76¢. Weeks 1 to 3: 69, 64, 39.
- Juwan Johnson 25+ receiving yards. Kalshi 77¢. Weeks 1 to 3: 54, 66, 53.
- Chris Olave 60+ receiving yards. Kalshi 74¢. Weeks 1 to 3: 182, 86, 107.
- Bijan Robinson 50+ rushing yards. Kalshi 87¢. Weeks 1 to 3: 83, 72, 194.
- Bijan Robinson 2+ catches. Kalshi 92¢. Weeks 1 to 3: 8, 3, 2.
- Drake London 3+ catches. Kalshi 92¢. Weeks 1 to 3: 2, 4, 9.
Where it is thinnest: Brian Robinson Jr. at 20+ rushing yards (31, 51, 50 in Weeks 1 to 3).
Drake London. The one leg that missed in Weeks 1 to 3. If Atlanta leans on the run early, his catches are the first thing to go.
Read the column: every leg, and where it can break
Kalshi asks read Oct 5, 3:38 PM PT; ESPN box scores, Weeks 1 to 3. Agent Brad is our AI agent, and we place his ticket on Kalshi as one combo before kickoff.
Tale of the tape
| Going in | ATL Atlanta FalconsATL | NO New Orleans SaintsNO |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Side | On the road | At home |
| The posted line | +3 | −3 |
| Implied points computed | 22.75 | 25.75 |
| Passing leader 3 games | Michael Penix Jr.18/25, 256 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT in one game | Tyler Shough91/132, 917 yds, 8 TD, 3 INT |
| Rushing leader 3 games | Bijan Robinson66 car, 349 yds, 2 TD | Travis Etienne Jr.30 car, 128 yds, 0 TD |
| Receiving leader 3 games | Drake London15 rec, 274 yds, 0 TD | Chris Olave27 rec, 375 yds, 1 TD |
Records, venue, spread and total from the ESPN scoreboard, read 2026-09-29.1 Player lines are three-game totals summed from the completed Week 1 to Week 3 box scores.2 Implied points is half the total moved half the spread, which is arithmetic on the two numbers above, not a projection.
The fantasy angle
Six players, the three who have produced most on each side. Every number here is the three-game box score total divided by the three games played, or divided by touches. It is what happened, not a projection.2
Where the points are priced. The spread and the total put New Orleans Saints at about 25.75 and Atlanta Falcons at about 22.75. That gap is the first thing a start-or-sit call turns on: the same player is worth more in a game his side is priced to lead than in one it is priced to chase. It is arithmetic on the posted line, not a score projection.
| Player | Yards | Points | Scores |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATLAtlanta Falcons | |||
| Michael Penix Jr.QB · 72.0% on 25 attempts | 256.0pass yds a game | 12.2half-PPR a game | 1.01 TD in one |
| Drake LondonREC · 15 catches | 91.3yds a game | 11.6half-PPR a game | 0.00 TD in three |
| Bijan RobinsonRB · 66 carries | 116.3yds a game | 15.6half-PPR a game | 0.72 TD in three |
| NONew Orleans Saints | |||
| Tyler ShoughQB · 68.9% on 132 attempts | 305.7pass yds a game | 20.9half-PPR a game | 2.78 TD in three |
| Chris OlaveREC · 27 catches | 125.0yds a game | 19.0half-PPR a game | 0.31 TD in three |
| Travis Etienne Jr.RB · 30 carries | 42.7yds a game | 4.3half-PPR a game | 0.00 TD in three |
Half-PPR: 0.1 a rushing or receiving yard, 0.5 a catch, 6 a touchdown, 0.04 a passing yard, 4 a passing touchdown, minus 2 an interception. Full-PPR and standard leagues score catches differently, so the weights are printed rather than assumed. Three games played by every team at the time of this read.
What the market says
The posted line has New Orleans Saints favoured by 3, with a total of 48.5. A spread is the market's estimate of the margin, not a result; the Kalshi contract below prices the win outright.
The two venue prices sit at the top of this page and are read live when it loads. A contract settles at $1.00 if that team wins and $0 if it loses, so a price in cents is that market’s implied chance of the win. Prices are the venues’, not our picks, and the two rarely agree to the cent.
A spread and a contract price are two different questions. The spread is the market’s estimate of the margin; the contract prices the win outright, and it is the one you can sell before the game ends. Books differ on the spread itself: our read found two games where a second book had a different number the same afternoon.1
Falcons vs Saints player props on Kalshi
Every player contract Kalshi has listed for this game, live: passing, rushing and receiving yards, receptions, carries and touchdowns. Each chip is a threshold and the price to buy YES on it.
Agent Brad’s 8 legs, at the Kalshi asks when they were priced, 3:38 PM PT Mon, Oct 5
Tyler Shough 175+ passing yards89¢Brian Robinson Jr. 20+ rushing yards68¢Devaughn Vele 25+ receiving yards76¢Juwan Johnson 25+ receiving yards77¢Chris Olave 60+ receiving yards74¢Bijan Robinson 50+ rushing yards87¢Bijan Robinson 2+ catches92¢Drake London 3+ catches92¢
The live board for every player loads here when Kalshi answers. Market prices, not our picks.
Trading the props
We do not publish a prop line we have not captured with a timestamp, so none appear here. What follows is our own number from the box scores, and the math for turning your board’s line into something you can compare to a price.
Rushing yards
Bijan Robinson ATL
116.3 a game
66 carries through three games, 5.3 yds per carry.
Other side: Travis Etienne Jr. (NO) at 42.7
Receiving yards
Chris Olave NO
125.0 a game
27 catches through three games, 13.9 yds per catch.
Other side: Drake London (ATL) at 91.3
Ours, from the box scores, not a posted line. Put each against whatever your board shows: if the board is well under our number the over is the question, and if it is well over, the under is. A number that sits on top of ours is telling you the board has read the same three games we have.
A pick’em entry is a parlay, and the math is unforgiving
Every leg has to hit. Two legs you think are 60% each come to 36% together, not 60. Three come to 22%. That multiplication is the whole game, and it is the reason a board can offer a number that looks generous and is still a bad price.
Work your break-even the other way round. If your board pays N times the entry on an L-leg play, the entry needs to win 1 ÷ N of the time to break even, so each leg needs to hit the L-th root of that. A 2-leg play paying 3× needs each leg at about 57.7%. A 4-leg play paying 10× needs each at about 56.2%. Check your own board’s multipliers: they differ by state, by board and by promotion, so the number above is the method, not your terms.
Legs on the same game are not independent
A quarterback going over his passing yards and his top receiver going over his receiving yards are close to the same bet twice. That correlation is the one real lever in pick’em: it makes a correlated pair land together more often than the multiplication above suggests, and miss together just as often. Correlate on purpose or not at all.
What a contract does that a pick’em entry does not
The contract on the board above can be sold at any point before the game ends, so a position that moves your way early can be closed for a profit without waiting to find out. A pick’em entry is locked until every leg settles. That is the structural difference between the two products, and it is worth more than any single line. How the fee works on a contract
Trading it: the case each way
Agent Brad’s ticket on this game is player props, above. This part is about the game itself.
The question on Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons are 1-2 and they are on the road, and the line makes them the underdog by 3. Decide what chance you would give them, in cents, before you read the board. If your number is above the ask, that is the trade; if it is not, there is no trade here.
The question on New Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints are 1-2 and favoured by 3. A favourite contract costs most of a dollar, so the money at risk is large against the money to be made. Work out what you lose if it goes wrong before you decide what you make if it goes right.
Whatever you decide, write the entry, the sell target and the hold rule before kickoff, and remember the fee is largest near 50¢. How the fee works
Questions people ask about this game
What is Agent Brad’s parlay for Falcons vs Saints?
Agent Brad, PM Countdown’s AI agent, built an eight-leg ticket: Tyler Shough 175+ passing yards, Brian Robinson Jr. 20+ rushing yards, Devaughn Vele 25+ receiving yards, Juwan Johnson 25+ receiving yards, Chris Olave 60+ receiving yards, Bijan Robinson 50+ rushing yards, Bijan Robinson 2+ catches, Drake London 3+ catches. At the Kalshi asks it pays 5.18x and needs 19.3%; his number is 24.3%. It is placed on Kalshi as one combo before kickoff, at 4.12x or better.
What time is Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints and what channel is it on?
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints kicks off at 8:15 PM ET on Monday, October 5, 2026, at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. It is on ESPN. It is a national window, so every US market gets it.
Who is favoured in Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints?
The posted line has New Orleans Saints favoured by 3 with a total of 48.5, read from the ESPN scoreboard on 2026-09-29. A spread is the market's estimate of the margin, not a result, and books differ. The Kalshi contract on this page prices the win outright and is read live when the page loads, so it is the number to trust over a line written down days earlier.
How many points is each team priced for in Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints?
Half the total moved half the spread puts Atlanta Falcons at about 22.75 points and New Orleans Saints at about 25.75. That is arithmetic on the two posted numbers, not a score projection, and it is the figure most fantasy decisions on this game turn on.
Who are the top fantasy producers in Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints?
Through three games the leaders are Bijan Robinson of Atlanta Falcons at 15.6 half-PPR points a game (66 carries through three games), and Tyler Shough of New Orleans Saints at 20.9 half-PPR points a game (68.9% on 132 attempts through three games). Those are half-PPR points from the completed box scores divided by games played, so they describe what has happened rather than what will. Scoring weights and the full six-player table are on this page.
What player numbers should I check against a prop board for Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints?
We do not publish a prop line we have not captured from the app with a timestamp, so no posted line appears here. Our own figures from the box scores are Tyler Shough at 305.7 passing a game, Bijan Robinson at 116.3 rushing a game, Chris Olave at 125.0 receiving a game. Put each against whatever your board shows and decide which side of it you are on.
How often does each leg of a pick'em entry need to hit to break even?
A pick'em entry is a parlay, so every leg has to land: two legs you price at 60 per cent are 36 per cent together, and three are 22 per cent. If your board pays N times the entry on an L-leg play, the entry needs to win one divided by N of the time, so each leg needs the L-th root of that. A two-leg play paying 3x needs each leg at about 57.7 per cent, and a four-leg play paying 10x needs each at about 56.2 per cent. Multipliers differ by state, board and promotion, so use your own terms.
Sources
Every stored figure on this page came from one of these, read 2026-09-29. Lines move and injury news lands after that; the prices in the strip and on the board are read live when the page loads, not written into it.
- ESPN NFL scoreboard: schedule, records, venue, broadcast, the posted spread and the total. site.api.espn.com
- ESPN NFL game summaries for the completed Week 1 to Week 3 games: the three-game player totals, summed from the box scores. espn.com
- Kalshi public markets API, the Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints game market: the contract this page links to. Prices are read live in your browser, never stored here. external-api.kalshi.com
- The headline on this page: Michael Penix Jr. made his 2026 debut in Week 3 after recovering from a torn ACL. Read 2026-09-29. www.rotowire.com
- Polymarket Gamma API, event nfl-atl-no-2026-10-06: the second venue in the price strip, also read live. gamma-api.polymarket.com
PM Countdown is not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi, Polymarket, ESPN or the NFL. Prices shown are the venues’, not our picks.
21+Only risk what you can afford to lose. Set a money limit before you start, take profits on purpose and stop when you hit your limit. Not financial or betting advice. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET.