NFL Week 5 · Sun, Oct 11, 5:20 PM PT
Lamar Jackson’s sprained ankle has flipped this game. Baltimore opened as a road favorite, and now Atlanta is laying 3 with Tyler Huntley expected to start. The Falcons have scored 80 points in two weeks since Michael Penix Jr. came back, and Bijan Robinson just ran for 145 yards on Monday night. Now Derrick Henry and a patched Ravens line have to answer on the road. The posted line is BAL -2.5 with a total of 44.5, and the contract below prices the win outright.
Kickoff
5:20 PM PT
8:20 PM ET, Sun, Oct 11
Stadium
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Atlanta
On TV
NBC
national window
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Baltimore Ravens are 3-1. Atlanta Falcons are 1-2. The posted line has Baltimore Ravens favoured by 2.5, with a total of 44.5. Kickoff is 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, October 11 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta.
The storyline. Lamar Jackson’s sprained ankle has flipped this game. Baltimore opened as a road favorite, and now Atlanta is laying 3 with Tyler Huntley expected to start. The Falcons have scored 80 points in two weeks since Michael Penix Jr. came back, and Bijan Robinson just ran for 145 yards on Monday night. Now Derrick Henry and a patched Ravens line have to answer on the road.
Lamar Jackson sprained his ankle on the last play of the first half against Tennessee and did not come back. Before he left he was 15 of 20 for 222 yards and two touchdowns, a 144.2 passer rating. On Monday, Ravens coach Jesse Minter said, “I don’t know the chances yet. We’re still gathering information and imaging,” and added that he didn’t think it would be “crazy long-term.” Sources: NFL.com · CBS Sports · Yahoo Sports.
NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport then reported Jackson has “only an outside chance” to play, and CBS Sports, citing the same reporting, says Tyler Huntley is “trending toward the Week 5 start.” ESPN’s injury page lists Jackson as questionable, and Kalshi has passing-yard markets up for Huntley and none for Jackson. As of Wednesday morning, October 7, Baltimore had not named a starter. Sources: NFL.com · CBS Sports · ESPN injuries.
Before Week 4 the lookahead line had Baltimore as a 6-point road favorite. It fell to Ravens -3.5 on Sunday night, to -2.5 after Minter’s comments, and by Wednesday DraftKings had Atlanta -3 with the Falcons at -162 on the moneyline. Sports Illustrated called it a nine-point swing, driven by Jackson’s ankle. The total opened at 45.5 at Covers and sits at 43.5 at DraftKings. Sources: SI odds shift · SI prediction · Covers.
Michael Penix Jr. tore his ACL in November 2025 and sat the first two games. Without him Atlanta lost 20-13 at Pittsburgh and 34-3 to Carolina in Atlanta, 16 points in two weeks. Since he returned, the Falcons won 35-14 at Green Bay and 45-24 at New Orleans, 80 points in two games, their most over a two-game stretch since 2016. Penix has gone 33 of 45 for 479 yards in those two games. Sources: PFR · Atlanta Falcons · CBS Sports.
Kevin Stefanski after Monday’s win: “Mike played well. He took care of the football, made some really good throws.” Penix kept it short: “What do I think I’ve proven? That I’m healthy. That’s it.” Safety Jessie Bates put it this way: “When you got Penix back there dealing, it’s a whole different team.” Sources: AP via TSN · NFL.com.
Bijan Robinson ran 19 times for 145 yards and two scores Monday, including a 59-yard touchdown on his first carry. Brian Robinson Jr. added 14 carries for 62 yards and three short touchdowns. Together they ran for 207 yards and five touchdowns, matching the franchise record for rushing scores in a game. Atlanta is the first team since 2010 to run for 200-plus yards in back-to-back games. Sources: CBS Sports · Yahoo Sports · WLBT/AP.
Covers has these offenses first and third in the league in rushing play percentage. Derrick Henry has 89 carries for 374 yards through four games, with a 144-yard opener at Indianapolis. He runs behind a patched line: Baltimore has lost three centers to injury, rookie first-rounder Vega Ioane moved from guard to center, and left tackle Ronnie Stanley (toe) is questionable again. Sources: Covers · BaltimoreRavens.com · ESPN injuries.
Both teams have played New Orleans. The Saints won 24-17 in Baltimore in Week 2, the Ravens’ only loss. Atlanta went to the Superdome on Monday, never trailed, and outrushed New Orleans 207-50 in a 45-24 win. Baltimore is 3-1 and tied for first in the AFC North; Atlanta is 2-2 and tied for first in the NFC South. Sources: PFR Ravens · Sky Sports · Fox Sports.
This is Atlanta’s third prime-time game in a row after Thursday night at Green Bay and Monday night at New Orleans, and its first home game since the 34-3 loss to Carolina on September 20. Playing Monday means the Falcons get six days to prepare; Baltimore last played Sunday, October 4. Sources: AP via TSN · PFR.
The last meeting, on December 24, 2022 in Baltimore, was a Huntley start with Jackson out with a knee injury. In 17-degree cold, Huntley threw a touchdown pass to Demarcus Robinson, Gus Edwards ran for 99 yards, and the defense kept Atlanta out of the end zone on four red-zone trips in a 17-9 win. The Ravens also won the 2018 meeting 26-16 in Atlanta. Baltimore led the series 4-2 before that 2022 game, so it now stands 5-2. Sources: AP via ClickOnDetroit · FOX45 Baltimore.
Statuses below are ESPN’s listings as read Wednesday morning, October 7, before the first official practice report of the week. Final game designations come Friday, and inactives post 90 minutes before kickoff.
| Player | Status | Injury | What it changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson, BAL QB | Questionable | Ankle | Reports say he is unlikely to play; Tyler Huntley would make his first start of the season |
| Ronnie Stanley, BAL LT | Questionable | Toe | Blind-side protection for a backup quarterback |
| Andrew Vorhees, BAL G | Questionable | Foot | More shuffling on an interior already without its top centers |
| Ethan Pocic, BAL C | Injured reserve | Knee | Vega Ioane has moved to center |
| Jovaughn Gwyn, BAL G/C | Injured reserve | Ankle | Another interior lineman out |
| Marlon Humphrey, BAL CB | Questionable | Calf | Matters against Drake London |
| Trey Hendrickson, BAL LB | Questionable | Finger | Pass rush against a line that may be missing its left tackle |
| Chris Moore, BAL WR | Questionable | Ankle | Depth receiver |
| Durham Smythe, BAL TE | Out | Achilles | ESPN lists a February 2027 return |
| Jake Matthews, ATL LT | Questionable | Groin | Left Monday’s game in the first quarter; Michael Jerrell replaced him |
| Za’Darius Smith, ATL DE | Questionable | Concussion | Atlanta’s sack leader with 2.5; must clear the protocol |
| A.J. Terrell Jr., ATL CB | Injured reserve | Groin | ESPN lists an October 25 return |
For props, the quarterback news drives almost everything. With Huntley expected to start, Kalshi priced his 175-plus passing yards near a coin flip (49 bid, 52 ask, as read October 7). Kalshi listed no passing market for Jackson at all. On Atlanta’s side, a missing Matthews would test a run game that has topped 200 yards two weeks running. Sources: ESPN injuries · NFL.com roundup · Yahoo Sports · PFR · BaltimoreRavens.com.
Weeks 1 to 4 lines from ESPN box scores, read October 7, 2026. Kalshi prices are bid and ask in cents, read the same morning.
Week 4 (relief): 8 of 9, 63 yards; 4 runs, 16 yards
The likely starter if Jackson sits. He played the whole second half against Tennessee, and NFL.com noted the offense managed no points and five first downs on his five drives. CBS Sports has him 7-9 in 16 career starts, and he started the 2022 win over Atlanta. Kalshi: 175-plus passing yards at 49 bid, 52 ask.
Weeks 3 to 4: 33 of 45, 479 yards (18 of 25 for 256, then 15 of 20 for 223)
Two starts, two wins, and Monday he threw one touchdown with no interceptions. He hasn’t needed to throw much with the run game rolling. Kalshi: 200-plus passing yards at 62 bid, 65 ask; 225-plus at 46 bid, 50 ask.
85 carries, 494 yards; 14 catches, 120 yards on 18 targets
The last two weeks: 29 carries for 194 at Green Bay, then 19 for 145 at New Orleans. That 59-yard touchdown came on his first carry Monday. Kalshi: 90-plus rushing yards at 49 bid, 52 ask; 100-plus at 34 bid, 42 ask.
89 carries, 374 yards; 7 catches, 44 yards (144, 68, 89, 73 rushing by week)
Twenty-plus carries in three of four games. With a backup quarterback, defenses can crowd the box, so watch how Baltimore keeps him going. Kalshi: 80-plus rushing yards at 54 bid, 59 ask; 90-plus at 45 bid, 49 ask.
18 catches, 352 yards on 22 targets in three games (no Week 2 line)
Games of 150, 84 and 118 yards, all with Jackson throwing. The question is how much of that carries over to Huntley. Kalshi: 70-plus receiving yards at 45 bid, 48 ask.
20 catches, 370 yards on 26 targets
His career-high 194 yards came at Green Bay in Penix’s first start back, then 5 catches for 96 on Monday. Humphrey’s calf is the matchup to check Friday. Kalshi: 80-plus receiving yards at 50 bid, 56 ask.
Sources: NFL.com · CBS Sports · Yahoo Sports · WLBT/AP.
Atlanta is 2-0 with Penix and has scored 80 points in those games. It has run for 200-plus yards in back-to-back weeks, and Baltimore has allowed 24 points a game. The Ravens are 6-11 straight up without Jackson over the years, per SI, and the market has moved nine points toward Atlanta since the lookahead line.
Baltimore is 3-1 and scoring 29 points a game, and Henry gives a backup quarterback something to lean on. Atlanta is on a six-day turnaround after a Monday game, may be without left tackle Jake Matthews and pass rusher Za’Darius Smith, and lost its one home game 34-3. Huntley has already beaten this franchise once, in 2022.
These are the arguments each side’s backers make, not our pick. Sources: SI · PFR Falcons · PFR Ravens · CBS Sports · AP via ClickOnDetroit.
| Going in | BAL Baltimore RavensBAL | ATL Atlanta FalconsATL |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Side | On the road | At home |
| The posted line | −2.5 | +2.5 |
| Implied points computed | 23.5 | 21 |
Records, venue, spread and total from the ESPN scoreboard, read 2026-10-05.1 Implied points is half the total moved half the spread, which is arithmetic on the two numbers above, not a projection.
The posted line has Baltimore Ravens favoured by 2.5 on the road, with a total of 44.5. A spread is the market's estimate of the margin, not a result; the Kalshi contract below prices the win outright.
The two venue prices sit at the top of this page and are read live when it loads. A contract settles at $1.00 if that team wins and $0 if it loses, so a price in cents is that market’s implied chance of the win. Prices are the venues’, not our picks, and the two rarely agree to the cent.
A spread and a contract price are two different questions. The spread is the market’s estimate of the margin; the contract prices the win outright, and it is the one you can sell before the game ends. Books differ on the spread itself: our read found two games where a second book had a different number the same afternoon.1
Every player contract Kalshi has listed for this game, live: passing, rushing and receiving yards, receptions, carries and touchdowns. Each chip is a threshold and the price to buy YES on it.
Reading the Kalshi board.
No plan is posted on this game. The props section above is about one player; this is about the game itself.
The question on Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons are 1-2 and they are at home, and the line makes them the underdog by 2.5. Decide what chance you would give them, in cents, before you read the board. If your number is above the ask, that is the trade; if it is not, there is no trade here.
The question on Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens are 3-1 and favoured by 2.5. A favourite contract costs most of a dollar, so the money at risk is large against the money to be made. Work out what you lose if it goes wrong before you decide what you make if it goes right.
Whatever you decide, write the entry, the sell target and the hold rule before kickoff, and remember the fee is largest near 50¢. How the fee works
The Atlanta Falcons are 3-point home favorites over the Baltimore Ravens at DraftKings, with the moneyline at Falcons -162 and Ravens +136 as of October 7, 2026, per Sports Illustrated. On Kalshi, as read Oct 7, 2026, the Atlanta contract was 60 cents bid and 61 ask, about a 61% chance of a Falcons win.
The Baltimore Ravens play the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, October 11, 2026, at 8:20 PM ET (5:20 PM PT) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. It is the Week 5 Sunday Night Football game, broadcast nationally on NBC.
As of October 7, 2026, Lamar Jackson is listed questionable with an ankle sprain from Week 4. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported he has only an outside chance to play, and CBS Sports says Tyler Huntley is trending toward the start. Coach Jesse Minter had not named a starter, and Kalshi listed passing props for Huntley only.
For Baltimore, QB Lamar Jackson (ankle), LT Ronnie Stanley (toe), G Andrew Vorhees (foot), CB Marlon Humphrey (calf), LB Trey Hendrickson (finger) and WR Chris Moore (ankle) are questionable, and TE Durham Smythe (Achilles) is out. For Atlanta, LT Jake Matthews (groin) and DE Za’Darius Smith (concussion) are questionable, per ESPN on October 7, 2026.
The Ravens vs Falcons total is 43.5 at DraftKings as of October 7, 2026, with the over at -115 and the under at -105, per Sports Illustrated. Covers had it opening at 45.5. Both teams are 2-2 to the over this season, and Atlanta has scored 80 points in its last two games.
On Kalshi, as read October 7, 2026, Bijan Robinson 90-plus rushing yards was 49 cents bid and 52 ask, and 100-plus was 34 bid and 42 ask. He has 494 rushing yards on 85 carries through four games, including 194 at Green Bay and 145 at New Orleans.
Half the total moved half the spread puts Baltimore Ravens at about 23.5 points and Atlanta Falcons at about 21. That is arithmetic on the two posted numbers, not a score projection, and it is the figure most fantasy decisions on this game turn on.
A pick'em entry is a parlay, so every leg has to land: two legs you price at 60 per cent are 36 per cent together, and three are 22 per cent. If your board pays N times the entry on an L-leg play, the entry needs to win one divided by N of the time, so each leg needs the L-th root of that. A two-leg play paying 3x needs each leg at about 57.7 per cent, and a four-leg play paying 10x needs each at about 56.2 per cent. Multipliers differ by state, board and promotion, so use your own terms.
Every stored figure on this page came from one of these, read 2026-10-05. Lines move and injury news lands after that; the prices in the strip and on the board are read live when the page loads, not written into it.
PM Countdown is not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi, Polymarket, ESPN or the NFL. Prices shown are the venues’, not our picks.
21+Only risk what you can afford to lose. Set a money limit before you start, take profits on purpose and stop when you hit your limit. Not financial or betting advice. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET.
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