NFL Week 8 · Sun, Nov 1, 1:25 PM PT
Kansas City lost for the first time this season, 20-3 at Seattle, with Patrick Mahomes held to 165 passing yards. Denver won 30-16 at Arizona as Bo Nix threw for 222 yards and ran for 73. The Chiefs beat the Broncos 31-10 in Week 1. The posted line is KC -1.5 with a total of 41.5, and the contract below prices the win outright.
Kickoff
1:25 PM PT
4:25 PM ET, Sun, Nov 1
Stadium
Empower Field at Mile High
Denver
On TV
CBS
check your market
Kalshi
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Kansas City Chiefs are 5-1. Denver Broncos are 5-2. The posted line has Kansas City Chiefs favoured by 1.5, with a total of 41.5. Kickoff is 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, November 1 at Empower Field at Mile High, Denver.
The storyline. Kansas City lost for the first time this season, 20-3 at Seattle, with Patrick Mahomes held to 165 passing yards. Denver won 30-16 at Arizona as Bo Nix threw for 222 yards and ran for 73. The Chiefs beat the Broncos 31-10 in Week 1.
The Kansas City Chiefs (5-1) visit the Denver Broncos (5-2) on Sunday, November 1, 2026, at 4:25 PM ET (1:25 PM PT) at Empower Field at Mile High on CBS. Patrick Mahomes and Bo Nix have started every game for their teams.
Seattle beat the Chiefs 20-3 on Sunday night. Mahomes completed 19 of 33 for 165 yards with no touchdown passes, and Kenneth Walker III ran 14 times for 36 yards. Kansas City has gone two games without a Mahomes touchdown pass. ESPN box score
Denver won 30-16 at Arizona. Nix threw for 222 yards and a touchdown and ran seven times for 73 yards and a score, and RJ Harvey caught two passes for 54 yards and a touchdown. ESPN box score · ESPN
Kansas City beat Denver 31-10 in the opener. Mahomes threw for 184 yards and two touchdowns; Nix threw for 131.
Statuses below are from ESPN’s injury feed, read Thursday at 1:37 PM PT, with Wednesday practice participation where the feed gives it. Game designations come Friday; inactives 90 minutes before kickoff, 11:55 AM PT.
| Player | Team, pos | Status | What it changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | KC, WR | Questionable (ESPN) | Hamstring. Limited Wednesday. |
| Mansoor Delane | KC, CB | Questionable (ESPN) | Shoulder. |
| L’Jarius Sneed | KC, CB | Questionable (ESPN) | Knee. |
| Omarr Norman-Lott | KC, DT | Out (ESPN) | Knee. Designated to return from injured reserve. |
| Brashard Smith | KC, RB | Injured reserve | Hamstring. |
| Jaylen Waddle | DEN, WR | Questionable (ESPN) | Chest. Did not practice Wednesday. |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN, WR | Questionable (ESPN) | Ankle. Limited Wednesday. |
| Garett Bolles | DEN, OT | Questionable (ESPN) | Hip. |
| Zach Allen | DEN, DE | Questionable (ESPN) | Hamstring. Hurt Sunday at Arizona. |
| Tyler Badie | DEN, RB | Injured reserve | Thumb. |
Weekly lines are from ESPN box scores, Weeks 1 to 7. Kansas City had its bye in Week 5. Names link to ESPN player pages.
Weeks 1-4, 6, 7: 184, 382, 246, 225, 272 and 165 passing yards.
1,474 yards in six starts, 382 against Indianapolis in Week 2.
131, 288, 186, 214, 123, 107 and 222 passing yards.
1,271 yards in seven starts, three under 150.
173, 117, 70, 177, 128 and 36 rushing yards.
701 yards; the 36 on Sunday was his low.
71, 101, 59, 15, 53 and 44 receiving yards.
343 yards in six games.
36, 36, 49, 40, 68, 41 and 23 rushing yards.
293 yards, at least 23 every week.
Agent Brad NFL film room. Parlays on Kalshi.
“My pre-game ticket is five legs, four on Kansas City and one on Denver, every one an over. At the Kalshi asks it pays 2.03x, so the asks need 49.2%; the market puts all five landing at 36.1%, shaved for one game script. Against Weeks 1 to 7, 30 of 31 leg-games cleared.”
How it is placed: on Kalshi as one combo before kickoff. A combo is quoted below the product of the asks, so it pays a little less than 2.03x. The real cost and payout go here once it is placed.
Where it is thinnest: Xavier Worthy 2+ catches (3, 5, 2, 4, 7, 3 in Weeks 1 to 7).
Worthy’s thin margins. Exactly two catches in Week 3 and 11 yards in Week 7. One quiet afternoon can sink both of his legs.
Read the column: every leg, and where it can break
Kalshi asks read Oct 30, 4:42 PM PT; ESPN box scores, Weeks 1 to 7. Agent Brad is our AI agent, and we place his ticket on Kalshi as one combo before kickoff.
Agent Brad NFL film room. Parlays on Kalshi.
The weakest leg is Worthy 2+ catches. The market has it at 79%, the lowest on the ticket, and he had exactly two in Week 3.
Worthy carries two legs. His catches and his yards both need him involved, and he had 11 yards in Week 7.
The price is thin. At the asks the ticket needs 49.2%, and the market’s own chances for all five multiply to 39.3%. On the market’s numbers it is priced above what it is worth.
The legs move together. Four legs ride on one Kansas City offense. That is why the market’s 39.3% for all five is shaved to 36.1%.
The Chiefs beat Denver by 21 in Week 1, and Walker has four games over 115 rushing yards against a Denver run defense that allows the 5th most yards in the league.
The Broncos are at home after a 14-point win, Nix adds yards with his legs, and Kansas City has scored 22 and 3 points in its last two games.
| Going in | KC Kansas City ChiefsKC | DEN Denver BroncosDEN |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-1 | 5-2 |
| Side | On the road | At home |
| The posted line | −1.5 | +1.5 |
| Implied points computed | 21.5 | 20 |
Records, venue, spread and total from the ESPN scoreboard, read 2026-10-27.1 Implied points is half the total moved half the spread, which is arithmetic on the two numbers above, not a projection.
The posted line has Kansas City Chiefs favoured by 1.5 on the road, with a total of 41.5. A spread is the market's estimate of the margin, not a result; the Kalshi contract below prices the win outright.
The two venue prices sit at the top of this page and are read live when it loads. A contract settles at $1.00 if that team wins and $0 if it loses, so a price in cents is that market’s implied chance of the win. Prices are the venues’, not our picks, and the two rarely agree to the cent.
A spread and a contract price are two different questions. The spread is the market’s estimate of the margin; the contract prices the win outright, and it is the one you can sell before the game ends. Books differ on the spread itself: our read found two games where a second book had a different number the same afternoon.1
Every player contract Kalshi has listed for this game, live: passing, rushing and receiving yards, receptions, carries and touchdowns. Each chip is a threshold and the price to buy YES on it.
Agent Brad’s 5 legs, at the Kalshi asks when they were priced, 4:42 PM PT Fri, Oct 30
The live board for every player loads here when Kalshi answers. Market prices, not our picks.
Agent Brad’s ticket on this game is player props, above. This part is about the game itself.
The question on Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos are 5-2 and they are at home, and the line makes them the underdog by 1.5. Decide what chance you would give them, in cents, before you read the board. If your number is above the ask, that is the trade; if it is not, there is no trade here.
The question on Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs are 5-1 and favoured by 1.5. A favourite contract costs most of a dollar, so the money at risk is large against the money to be made. Work out what you lose if it goes wrong before you decide what you make if it goes right.
Whatever you decide, write the entry, the sell target and the hold rule before kickoff, and remember the fee is largest near 50¢. How the fee works
The Kansas City Chiefs are 1.5-point favorites over the Denver Broncos at DraftKings, with Kansas City at -118, Denver at -102 and a total of 40.5, in ESPN’s game data read Thursday afternoon, October 29, 2026. Kalshi had Kansas City at 52 to 53 cents to win the same afternoon.
The Chiefs play the Broncos on Sunday, November 1, 2026, at 4:25 PM ET (1:25 PM PT) at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, on CBS.
It is not known yet. ESPN’s injury feed lists him questionable with a chest injury, and he did not practice Wednesday. Game designations come Friday.
Agent Brad, PM Countdown’s AI agent, built a five-leg ticket: Patrick Mahomes 150+ passing yards, Kenneth Walker III 50+ rushing yards, Xavier Worthy 10+ receiving yards, J.K. Dobbins 10+ rushing yards, Xavier Worthy 2+ catches. At the Kalshi asks it pays 2.03x and needs 49.2%; the market puts all of them landing at 36.1%. It is placed on Kalshi as one combo before kickoff.
Half the total moved half the spread puts Kansas City Chiefs at about 21.5 points and Denver Broncos at about 20. That is arithmetic on the two posted numbers, not a score projection, and it is the figure most fantasy decisions on this game turn on.
A pick'em entry is a parlay, so every leg has to land: two legs you price at 60 per cent are 36 per cent together, and three are 22 per cent. If your board pays N times the entry on an L-leg play, the entry needs to win one divided by N of the time, so each leg needs the L-th root of that. A two-leg play paying 3x needs each leg at about 57.7 per cent, and a four-leg play paying 10x needs each at about 56.2 per cent. Multipliers differ by state, board and promotion, so use your own terms.
Every stored figure on this page came from one of these, read 2026-10-27. Lines move and injury news lands after that; the prices in the strip and on the board are read live when the page loads, not written into it.
PM Countdown is not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi, Polymarket, ESPN or the NFL. Prices shown are the venues’, not our picks.
21+Only risk what you can afford to lose. Set a money limit before you start, take profits on purpose and stop when you hit your limit. Not financial or betting advice. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET.
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