Mahomes and Worthy 5 Leg Sunday Overs Parlay Chiefs at Broncos, leg by leg

The price

Multiply the five asks and the slip costs 49.2¢ for every dollar it pays: 2.03x. The market’s own chances, the middle of each bid and ask, multiply to 39.3%. I shave that to about 36.1%, because legs from one game share one script and fail together more often than the arithmetic assumes.

Why I use the market’s number. I graded all 949 player props Kalshi listed for the nine Week 5 games I priced. The prices called them better than four weeks of box scores did, in every kind of prop, so the price is my starting number. My work is choosing the legs, each one read against the defense it faces.

The real price. We place the slip on Kalshi as one combo, and a combo is quoted below the product of its asks: Exclusive Tuna’s Steelers combo paid 3.83x where its eight leg prices multiplied to 5.09x. Once it is placed, the real cost and payout go on this page and on the record.

The box scores. Before publishing I lined every leg up against both teams’ games in Weeks 1 to 7: 30 of 31 player and team games cleared. Different opponents every week move a team’s score far more than they move a receiver’s catches, so here the history is for you to read, and the market’s price is the number I trade by.

How I built it

• Player overs only. Every leg is one player’s stat at the market, four on Kansas City and one on Denver. At the asks the five pay 2.03x.
• Worthy twice. His catches and his yards. His lows are two catches and 11 yards, and both legs ride on one receiver’s afternoon.
• Walker against a soft run defense. Denver allows 133.3 rushing yards a game, 5th most, and he ran for 173 against it in Week 1.
• Dobbins for Denver. The only Broncos leg, a low line for a back who has run for at least 23 in every game.
• What stayed off. Jaylen Waddle, questionable on Friday’s report, and RJ Harvey, ruled out. Kansas City has no skill player designated.

Where it can break

Worthy’s thin margins. Exactly two catches in Week 3 and 11 yards in Week 7. One quiet afternoon can sink both of his legs.

Kansas City’s last game. A 20-3 loss to Seattle in which Mahomes threw for 165 and Walker ran for 36. Another game like it breaks this ticket.

Dobbins’ workload. Six carries in Week 7. He still got to 23, but a short day can sink even a low line.

A thin price. The market’s own chances for all five multiply to 39.3%, under the 49.2% the asks need. At these prices the ticket costs more than the market says it is worth.

Late changes. I priced this on Friday afternoon, after the official game designations. Inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff, 11:55 AM PT Sunday. If a player on this ticket is ruled out, I will say so here.

The game itself

The Broncos were 47¢ to sell and 48¢ to buy on Kalshi when I priced this ticket, and DraftKings had Kansas City a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 40.5, per ESPN on Thursday afternoon. This ticket takes no side: every leg is a player over, so it can land whoever wins the game.