Passing yards
Josh Allen BUF
262.0 a game
65.1% on 86 attempts through three games, 9.1 yds per attempt.
Other side: Drake Maye (NE) at 195.0
NFL Week 4 · Sun, Oct 4, 10:00 AM PT
Maye's 6 picks meet an unbeaten Bills team in Orchard Park
New England has the NFL's lowest-scoring offense, but the Patriots went into Buffalo last year and beat the unbeaten Bills. The posted line is BUF -7 with a total of 48.5, and the contract below prices the win outright.
Kickoff
10:00 AM PT
1:00 PM ET, Sun, Oct 4
Stadium
Highmark Stadium
Orchard Park
On TV
CBS
check your market
Kalshi
Listed
trade it on the board below
Live from Kalshi
Open New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills markets
YES prices in cents from Kalshi's public data. Only markets that close after right now are shown, grouped by game.
Loading open markets from Kalshi
BidThe most a buyer will pay right now. Selling now gets you this.
AskThe least a seller will take. Buying now costs this.
LastThe price of the most recent trade.
SpreadAsk minus bid. Amber at 10¢ or more, where the gap eats most edges.
Source: Kalshi public market data, series KXNFLGAME, checked for this page on Sep 22, 2026. Prices can be a few seconds old. They are market prices, not our picks and not a recommendation. PM Countdown isn't affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi.
No open Kalshi markets in this league right now.
Check back closer to kickoff. Kalshi's open list sometimes still carries past-dated games, so this board only shows markets whose close time is still ahead.
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What’s at stake
New England Patriots are 1-2. Buffalo Bills are 3-0. The posted line has Buffalo Bills favoured by 7, with a total of 48.5. Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 4 at Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park.
The storyline. Drake Maye has one touchdown pass and six interceptions, and has been sacked nine times, through three games. The Patriots rank last in scoring at 12.0 points per game. New England lost 35-6 to Jacksonville in Week 3. Last year Mike Vrabel's Patriots were also 1-2 before winning in Week 4 and then going into Western New York to beat the undefeated Bills.
The window. Eight games at once, split between CBS and FOX. 7 other games kick off at the same moment.
Tale of the tape
| Going in | NE New England PatriotsNE | BUF Buffalo BillsBUF |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 3-0 |
| Side | On the road | At home |
| The posted line | +7 | −7 |
| Implied points computed | 20.75 | 27.75 |
| Passing leader 3 games | Drake Maye51/80, 585 yds, 1 TD, 6 INT | Josh Allen56/86, 786 yds, 5 TD, 2 INT |
| Rushing leader 3 games | Rhamondre Stevenson31 car, 116 yds, 0 TD | James Cook III58 car, 346 yds, 2 TD |
| Receiving leader 3 games | Mack Hollins12 rec, 156 yds, 0 TD | Dalton Kincaid14 rec, 263 yds, 1 TD |
Records, venue, spread and total from the ESPN scoreboard, read 2026-09-29.1 Player lines are three-game totals summed from the completed Week 1 to Week 3 box scores.2 Implied points is half the total moved half the spread, which is arithmetic on the two numbers above, not a projection.
The fantasy angle
Six players, the three who have produced most on each side. Every number here is the three-game box score total divided by the three games played, or divided by touches. It is what happened, not a projection.2
Where the points are priced. The spread and the total put Buffalo Bills at about 27.75 and New England Patriots at about 20.75. That gap is the first thing a start-or-sit call turns on: the same player is worth more in a game his side is priced to lead than in one it is priced to chase. It is arithmetic on the posted line, not a score projection.
| Player | Yards | Points | Scores |
|---|---|---|---|
| NENew England Patriots | |||
| Drake MayeQB · 63.8% on 80 attempts | 195.0pass yds a game | 5.1half-PPR a game | 0.31 TD in three |
| Mack HollinsREC · 12 catches | 52.0yds a game | 7.2half-PPR a game | 0.00 TD in three |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · 31 carries | 38.7yds a game | 3.9half-PPR a game | 0.00 TD in three |
| BUFBuffalo Bills | |||
| Josh AllenQB · 65.1% on 86 attempts | 262.0pass yds a game | 15.8half-PPR a game | 1.75 TD in three |
| Dalton KincaidREC · 14 catches | 87.7yds a game | 13.1half-PPR a game | 0.31 TD in three |
| James Cook IIIRB · 58 carries | 115.3yds a game | 15.5half-PPR a game | 0.72 TD in three |
Half-PPR: 0.1 a rushing or receiving yard, 0.5 a catch, 6 a touchdown, 0.04 a passing yard, 4 a passing touchdown, minus 2 an interception. Full-PPR and standard leagues score catches differently, so the weights are printed rather than assumed. Three games played by every team at the time of this read.
What the market says
The posted line has Buffalo Bills favoured by 7, with a total of 48.5. A spread is the market's estimate of the margin, not a result; the Kalshi contract below prices the win outright.
The two venue prices sit at the top of this page and are read live when it loads. A contract settles at $1.00 if that team wins and $0 if it loses, so a price in cents is that market’s implied chance of the win. Prices are the venues’, not our picks, and the two rarely agree to the cent.
A spread and a contract price are two different questions. The spread is the market’s estimate of the margin; the contract prices the win outright, and it is the one you can sell before the game ends. Books differ on the spread itself: our read found two games where a second book had a different number the same afternoon.1
Patriots vs Bills player props on Kalshi
Every player contract Kalshi has listed for this game, live: passing, rushing and receiving yards, receptions, carries and touchdowns. Each chip is a threshold and the price to buy YES on it.
Reading the Kalshi board.
Trading the props
We do not publish a prop line we have not captured with a timestamp, so none appear here. What follows is our own number from the box scores, and the math for turning your board’s line into something you can compare to a price.
Rushing yards
James Cook III BUF
115.3 a game
58 carries through three games, 6.0 yds per carry.
Other side: Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) at 38.7
Receiving yards
Dalton Kincaid BUF
87.7 a game
14 catches through three games, 18.8 yds per catch.
Other side: Mack Hollins (NE) at 52.0
Ours, from the box scores, not a posted line. Put each against whatever your board shows: if the board is well under our number the over is the question, and if it is well over, the under is. A number that sits on top of ours is telling you the board has read the same three games we have.
A pick’em entry is a parlay, and the math is unforgiving
Every leg has to hit. Two legs you think are 60% each come to 36% together, not 60. Three come to 22%. That multiplication is the whole game, and it is the reason a board can offer a number that looks generous and is still a bad price.
Work your break-even the other way round. If your board pays N times the entry on an L-leg play, the entry needs to win 1 ÷ N of the time to break even, so each leg needs to hit the L-th root of that. A 2-leg play paying 3× needs each leg at about 57.7%. A 4-leg play paying 10× needs each at about 56.2%. Check your own board’s multipliers: they differ by state, by board and by promotion, so the number above is the method, not your terms.
Legs on the same game are not independent
A quarterback going over his passing yards and his top receiver going over his receiving yards are close to the same bet twice. That correlation is the one real lever in pick’em: it makes a correlated pair land together more often than the multiplication above suggests, and miss together just as often. Correlate on purpose or not at all.
What a contract does that a pick’em entry does not
The contract on the board above can be sold at any point before the game ends, so a position that moves your way early can be closed for a profit without waiting to find out. A pick’em entry is locked until every leg settles. That is the structural difference between the two products, and it is worth more than any single line. How the fee works on a contract
Trading it: the case each way
No plan is posted on this game. The props section above is about one player; this is about the game itself.
The question on New England Patriots
New England Patriots are 1-2 and they are on the road, and the line makes them the underdog by 7. Decide what chance you would give them, in cents, before you read the board. If your number is above the ask, that is the trade; if it is not, there is no trade here.
The question on Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills are 3-0 and favoured by 7. A favourite contract costs most of a dollar, so the money at risk is large against the money to be made. Work out what you lose if it goes wrong before you decide what you make if it goes right.
Whatever you decide, write the entry, the sell target and the hold rule before kickoff, and remember the fee is largest near 50¢. How the fee works
Questions people ask about this game
What time is New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills and what channel is it on?
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills kicks off at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 4, 2026, at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park. It is on CBS. It is carried regionally, so whether your market shows it is the network's call.
Who is favoured in New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills?
The posted line has Buffalo Bills favoured by 7 with a total of 48.5, read from the ESPN scoreboard on 2026-09-29. A spread is the market's estimate of the margin, not a result, and books differ. The Kalshi contract on this page prices the win outright and is read live when the page loads, so it is the number to trust over a line written down days earlier.
How many points is each team priced for in New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills?
Half the total moved half the spread puts New England Patriots at about 20.75 points and Buffalo Bills at about 27.75. That is arithmetic on the two posted numbers, not a score projection, and it is the figure most fantasy decisions on this game turn on.
Who are the top fantasy producers in New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills?
Through three games the leaders are Mack Hollins of New England Patriots at 7.2 half-PPR points a game (12 catches through three games), and Josh Allen of Buffalo Bills at 15.8 half-PPR points a game (65.1% on 86 attempts through three games). Those are half-PPR points from the completed box scores divided by games played, so they describe what has happened rather than what will. Scoring weights and the full six-player table are on this page.
What player numbers should I check against a prop board for New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills?
We do not publish a prop line we have not captured from the app with a timestamp, so no posted line appears here. Our own figures from the box scores are Josh Allen at 262.0 passing a game, James Cook III at 115.3 rushing a game, Dalton Kincaid at 87.7 receiving a game. Put each against whatever your board shows and decide which side of it you are on.
How often does each leg of a pick'em entry need to hit to break even?
A pick'em entry is a parlay, so every leg has to land: two legs you price at 60 per cent are 36 per cent together, and three are 22 per cent. If your board pays N times the entry on an L-leg play, the entry needs to win one divided by N of the time, so each leg needs the L-th root of that. A two-leg play paying 3x needs each leg at about 57.7 per cent, and a four-leg play paying 10x needs each at about 56.2 per cent. Multipliers differ by state, board and promotion, so use your own terms.
Sources
Every stored figure on this page came from one of these, read 2026-09-29. Lines move and injury news lands after that; the prices in the strip and on the board are read live when the page loads, not written into it.
- ESPN NFL scoreboard: schedule, records, venue, broadcast, the posted spread and the total. site.api.espn.com
- ESPN NFL game summaries for the completed Week 1 to Week 3 games: the three-game player totals, summed from the box scores. espn.com
- Kalshi public markets API, the New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills game market: the contract this page links to. Prices are read live in your browser, never stored here. external-api.kalshi.com
- The headline on this page: Drake Maye has one touchdown pass and six interceptions, and has been sacked nine times, through three games.. Read 2026-09-29. www.buffalobills.com
- Polymarket Gamma API, event nfl-ne-buf-2026-10-04: the second venue in the price strip, also read live. gamma-api.polymarket.com
PM Countdown is not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi, Polymarket, ESPN or the NFL. Prices shown are the venues’, not our picks.
21+Only risk what you can afford to lose. Set a money limit before you start, take profits on purpose and stop when you hit your limit. Not financial or betting advice. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET.