Passing yards
Daniel Jones IND
203.7 a game
66.3% on 98 attempts through three games, 6.2 yds per attempt.
Other side: Marcus Mariota (WSH) at 147.0
NFL Week 4 · Sun, Oct 4, 6:30 AM PT
Daniels is expected in London. Does Mariota keep the job?
Washington expects its star to travel and practice on a dislocated elbow after Mariota upset Seattle, and the Colts arrive off their first win in 321 days. The posted line is IND -3.5 with a total of 47.5, and the contract below prices the win outright.
Kickoff
6:30 AM PT
9:30 AM ET, Sun, Oct 4
Stadium
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
London
On TV
NFL Network
national window
Kalshi
Listed
trade it on the board below
Live from Kalshi
Open Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders markets
YES prices in cents from Kalshi's public data. Only markets that close after right now are shown, grouped by game.
Loading open markets from Kalshi
BidThe most a buyer will pay right now. Selling now gets you this.
AskThe least a seller will take. Buying now costs this.
LastThe price of the most recent trade.
SpreadAsk minus bid. Amber at 10¢ or more, where the gap eats most edges.
Source: Kalshi public market data, series KXNFLGAME, checked for this page on Sep 22, 2026. Prices can be a few seconds old. They are market prices, not our picks and not a recommendation. PM Countdown isn't affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi.
No open Kalshi markets in this league right now.
Check back closer to kickoff. Kalshi's open list sometimes still carries past-dated games, so this board only shows markets whose close time is still ahead.
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What’s at stake
Indianapolis Colts are 1-2. Washington Commanders are 1-2. The posted line has Indianapolis Colts favoured by 3.5, with a total of 47.5. Kickoff is 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, October 4 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London.
The storyline. Jayden Daniels dislocated the elbow on his non-throwing arm in Week 2 and missed the Week 3 win over Seattle. The Commanders expect him to fly with the team to London and practice this week, and GM Adam Peters said surgery is not on the table. Marcus Mariota started in Daniels' place in Week 3 and led Washington to a 33-31 upset of the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks.
The window. London, on NFL Network. One game, everywhere.
Tale of the tape
| Going in | IND Indianapolis ColtsIND | WSH Washington CommandersWSH |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Side | On the road | At home |
| The posted line | −3.5 | +3.5 |
| Implied points computed | 25.5 | 22 |
| Passing leader 3 games | Daniel Jones65/98, 611 yds, 3 TD, 3 INT | Marcus Mariota30/47, 294 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT in two games |
| Rushing leader 3 games | Jonathan Taylor66 car, 258 yds, 4 TD | Jacory Croskey-Merritt47 car, 142 yds, 1 TD |
| Receiving leader 3 games | Josh Downs14 rec, 186 yds, 0 TD | Terry McLaurin10 rec, 141 yds, 1 TD |
Records, venue, spread and total from the ESPN scoreboard, read 2026-09-29.1 Player lines are three-game totals summed from the completed Week 1 to Week 3 box scores.2 Implied points is half the total moved half the spread, which is arithmetic on the two numbers above, not a projection.
The fantasy angle
Six players, the three who have produced most on each side. Every number here is the three-game box score total divided by the three games played, or divided by touches. It is what happened, not a projection.2
Where the points are priced. The spread and the total put Indianapolis Colts at about 25.5 and Washington Commanders at about 22. That gap is the first thing a start-or-sit call turns on: the same player is worth more in a game his side is priced to lead than in one it is priced to chase. It is arithmetic on the posted line, not a score projection.
| Player | Yards | Points | Scores |
|---|---|---|---|
| INDIndianapolis Colts | |||
| Daniel JonesQB · 66.3% on 98 attempts | 203.7pass yds a game | 10.1half-PPR a game | 1.03 TD in three |
| Josh DownsREC · 14 catches | 62.0yds a game | 8.5half-PPR a game | 0.00 TD in three |
| Jonathan TaylorRB · 66 carries | 86.0yds a game | 16.6half-PPR a game | 1.34 TD in three |
| WSHWashington Commanders | |||
| Marcus MariotaQB · 63.8% on 47 attempts | 147.0pass yds a game | 13.9half-PPR a game | 2.04 TD in two |
| Terry McLaurinREC · 10 catches | 47.0yds a game | 8.4half-PPR a game | 0.31 TD in three |
| Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB · 47 carries | 47.3yds a game | 6.7half-PPR a game | 0.31 TD in three |
Half-PPR: 0.1 a rushing or receiving yard, 0.5 a catch, 6 a touchdown, 0.04 a passing yard, 4 a passing touchdown, minus 2 an interception. Full-PPR and standard leagues score catches differently, so the weights are printed rather than assumed. Three games played by every team at the time of this read.
What the market says
The posted line has Indianapolis Colts favoured by 3.5 on the road, with a total of 47.5. A spread is the market's estimate of the margin, not a result; the Kalshi contract below prices the win outright.
The two venue prices sit at the top of this page and are read live when it loads. A contract settles at $1.00 if that team wins and $0 if it loses, so a price in cents is that market’s implied chance of the win. Prices are the venues’, not our picks, and the two rarely agree to the cent.
A spread and a contract price are two different questions. The spread is the market’s estimate of the margin; the contract prices the win outright, and it is the one you can sell before the game ends. Books differ on the spread itself: our read found two games where a second book had a different number the same afternoon.1
Colts vs Commanders player props on Kalshi
Every player contract Kalshi has listed for this game, live: passing, rushing and receiving yards, receptions, carries and touchdowns. Each chip is a threshold and the price to buy YES on it.
Reading the Kalshi board.
Trading the props
We do not publish a prop line we have not captured with a timestamp, so none appear here. What follows is our own number from the box scores, and the math for turning your board’s line into something you can compare to a price.
Rushing yards
Jonathan Taylor IND
86.0 a game
66 carries through three games, 3.9 yds per carry.
Other side: Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WSH) at 47.3
Receiving yards
Josh Downs IND
62.0 a game
14 catches through three games, 13.3 yds per catch.
Other side: Terry McLaurin (WSH) at 47.0
Ours, from the box scores, not a posted line. Put each against whatever your board shows: if the board is well under our number the over is the question, and if it is well over, the under is. A number that sits on top of ours is telling you the board has read the same three games we have.
A pick’em entry is a parlay, and the math is unforgiving
Every leg has to hit. Two legs you think are 60% each come to 36% together, not 60. Three come to 22%. That multiplication is the whole game, and it is the reason a board can offer a number that looks generous and is still a bad price.
Work your break-even the other way round. If your board pays N times the entry on an L-leg play, the entry needs to win 1 ÷ N of the time to break even, so each leg needs to hit the L-th root of that. A 2-leg play paying 3× needs each leg at about 57.7%. A 4-leg play paying 10× needs each at about 56.2%. Check your own board’s multipliers: they differ by state, by board and by promotion, so the number above is the method, not your terms.
Legs on the same game are not independent
A quarterback going over his passing yards and his top receiver going over his receiving yards are close to the same bet twice. That correlation is the one real lever in pick’em: it makes a correlated pair land together more often than the multiplication above suggests, and miss together just as often. Correlate on purpose or not at all.
What a contract does that a pick’em entry does not
The contract on the board above can be sold at any point before the game ends, so a position that moves your way early can be closed for a profit without waiting to find out. A pick’em entry is locked until every leg settles. That is the structural difference between the two products, and it is worth more than any single line. How the fee works on a contract
Trading it: the case each way
No plan is posted on this game. The props section above is about one player; this is about the game itself.
The question on Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders are 1-2 and they are at home, and the line makes them the underdog by 3.5. Decide what chance you would give them, in cents, before you read the board. If your number is above the ask, that is the trade; if it is not, there is no trade here.
The question on Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts are 1-2 and favoured by 3.5. A favourite contract costs most of a dollar, so the money at risk is large against the money to be made. Work out what you lose if it goes wrong before you decide what you make if it goes right.
Whatever you decide, write the entry, the sell target and the hold rule before kickoff, and remember the fee is largest near 50¢. How the fee works
Questions people ask about this game
What time is Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders and what channel is it on?
Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders kicks off at 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, October 4, 2026, at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London. It is on NFL Network. It is a national window, so every US market gets it.
Who is favoured in Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders?
The posted line has Indianapolis Colts favoured by 3.5 with a total of 47.5, read from the ESPN scoreboard on 2026-09-29. A spread is the market's estimate of the margin, not a result, and books differ. The Kalshi contract on this page prices the win outright and is read live when the page loads, so it is the number to trust over a line written down days earlier.
How many points is each team priced for in Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders?
Half the total moved half the spread puts Indianapolis Colts at about 25.5 points and Washington Commanders at about 22. That is arithmetic on the two posted numbers, not a score projection, and it is the figure most fantasy decisions on this game turn on.
Who are the top fantasy producers in Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders?
Through three games the leaders are Jonathan Taylor of Indianapolis Colts at 16.6 half-PPR points a game (66 carries through three games), and Marcus Mariota of Washington Commanders at 13.9 half-PPR points a game (63.8% on 47 attempts through two games). Those are half-PPR points from the completed box scores divided by games played, so they describe what has happened rather than what will. Scoring weights and the full six-player table are on this page.
What player numbers should I check against a prop board for Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders?
We do not publish a prop line we have not captured from the app with a timestamp, so no posted line appears here. Our own figures from the box scores are Daniel Jones at 203.7 passing a game, Jonathan Taylor at 86.0 rushing a game, Josh Downs at 62.0 receiving a game. Put each against whatever your board shows and decide which side of it you are on.
How often does each leg of a pick'em entry need to hit to break even?
A pick'em entry is a parlay, so every leg has to land: two legs you price at 60 per cent are 36 per cent together, and three are 22 per cent. If your board pays N times the entry on an L-leg play, the entry needs to win one divided by N of the time, so each leg needs the L-th root of that. A two-leg play paying 3x needs each leg at about 57.7 per cent, and a four-leg play paying 10x needs each at about 56.2 per cent. Multipliers differ by state, board and promotion, so use your own terms.
Sources
Every stored figure on this page came from one of these, read 2026-09-29. Lines move and injury news lands after that; the prices in the strip and on the board are read live when the page loads, not written into it.
- ESPN NFL scoreboard: schedule, records, venue, broadcast, the posted spread and the total. site.api.espn.com
- ESPN NFL game summaries for the completed Week 1 to Week 3 games: the three-game player totals, summed from the box scores. espn.com
- Kalshi public markets API, the Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders game market: the contract this page links to. Prices are read live in your browser, never stored here. external-api.kalshi.com
- The headline on this page: The Commanders expect him to fly with the team to London and practice this week. Read 2026-09-29. sports.yahoo.com
- Polymarket Gamma API, event nfl-ind-was-2026-10-04: the second venue in the price strip, also read live. gamma-api.polymarket.com
PM Countdown is not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi, Polymarket, ESPN or the NFL. Prices shown are the venues’, not our picks.
21+Only risk what you can afford to lose. Set a money limit before you start, take profits on purpose and stop when you hit your limit. Not financial or betting advice. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET.