NFL Week 5 · Sun, Oct 11, 10:00 AM PT
New England Patriots are the three and a half-point favourite at Gillette Stadium. The posted line is NE -3.5 with a total of 45.5, and the contract below prices the win outright.
Kickoff
10:00 AM PT
1:00 PM ET, Sun, Oct 11
Stadium
Gillette Stadium
Foxborough
On TV
CBS
check your market
Kalshi
Listed
trade it on the board below
Live from Kalshi
YES prices in cents from Kalshi's public data. Only markets that close after right now are shown, grouped by game.
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Source: Kalshi public market data, series KXNFLGAME, checked for this page on Sep 22, 2026. Prices can be a few seconds old. They are market prices, not our picks and not a recommendation. PM Countdown isn't affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi.
Check back closer to kickoff. Kalshi's open list sometimes still carries past-dated games, so this board only shows markets whose close time is still ahead.
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Las Vegas Raiders are 3-1. New England Patriots are 2-2. The posted line has New England Patriots favoured by 3.5, with a total of 45.5. Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 11 at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough.
| Going in | LV Las Vegas RaidersLV | NE New England PatriotsNE |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Side | On the road | At home |
| The posted line | +3.5 | −3.5 |
| Implied points computed | 21 | 24.5 |
Records, venue, spread and total from the ESPN scoreboard, read 2026-10-05.1 Implied points is half the total moved half the spread, which is arithmetic on the two numbers above, not a projection.
The posted line has New England Patriots favoured by 3.5, with a total of 45.5. A spread is the market's estimate of the margin, not a result; the Kalshi contract below prices the win outright.
The two venue prices sit at the top of this page and are read live when it loads. A contract settles at $1.00 if that team wins and $0 if it loses, so a price in cents is that market’s implied chance of the win. Prices are the venues’, not our picks, and the two rarely agree to the cent.
A spread and a contract price are two different questions. The spread is the market’s estimate of the margin; the contract prices the win outright, and it is the one you can sell before the game ends. Books differ on the spread itself: our read found two games where a second book had a different number the same afternoon.1
Every player contract Kalshi has listed for this game, live: passing, rushing and receiving yards, receptions, carries and touchdowns. Each chip is a threshold and the price to buy YES on it.
Reading the Kalshi board.
No plan is posted on this game. The props section above is about one player; this is about the game itself.
The question on Las Vegas Raiders
Las Vegas Raiders are 3-1 and they are on the road, and the line makes them the underdog by 3.5. Decide what chance you would give them, in cents, before you read the board. If your number is above the ask, that is the trade; if it is not, there is no trade here.
The question on New England Patriots
New England Patriots are 2-2 and favoured by 3.5. A favourite contract costs most of a dollar, so the money at risk is large against the money to be made. Work out what you lose if it goes wrong before you decide what you make if it goes right.
Whatever you decide, write the entry, the sell target and the hold rule before kickoff, and remember the fee is largest near 50¢. How the fee works
Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots kicks off at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 11, 2026, at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough. It is on CBS.
The posted line has New England Patriots favoured by 3.5 with a total of 45.5, read from the ESPN scoreboard on 2026-10-05. A spread is the market's estimate of the margin, not a result, and books differ. The Kalshi contract on this page prices the win outright and is read live when the page loads, so it is the number to trust over a line written down days earlier.
Half the total moved half the spread puts Las Vegas Raiders at about 21 points and New England Patriots at about 24.5. That is arithmetic on the two posted numbers, not a score projection, and it is the figure most fantasy decisions on this game turn on.
A pick'em entry is a parlay, so every leg has to land: two legs you price at 60 per cent are 36 per cent together, and three are 22 per cent. If your board pays N times the entry on an L-leg play, the entry needs to win one divided by N of the time, so each leg needs the L-th root of that. A two-leg play paying 3x needs each leg at about 57.7 per cent, and a four-leg play paying 10x needs each at about 56.2 per cent. Multipliers differ by state, board and promotion, so use your own terms.
Every stored figure on this page came from one of these, read 2026-10-05. Lines move and injury news lands after that; the prices in the strip and on the board are read live when the page loads, not written into it.
PM Countdown is not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi, Polymarket, ESPN or the NFL. Prices shown are the venues’, not our picks.
21+Only risk what you can afford to lose. Set a money limit before you start, take profits on purpose and stop when you hit your limit. Not financial or betting advice. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET.
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