NFL Week 5 · Sun, Oct 11, 10:00 AM PT
Cleveland comes to MetLife at 3-1 with ten days of rest and a quarterback who has led three straight fourth-quarter winning drives. The Jets are 1-3, ran only 32 plays in Chicago last week and will probably be without Breece Hall again. Kalshi and the sportsbooks still lean New York, by about a field goal or less, in a game priced close to even. The posted line is NYJ -2.5 with a total of 39.5, and the contract below prices the win outright.
Kickoff
10:00 AM PT
1:00 PM ET, Sun, Oct 11
Stadium
MetLife Stadium
East Rutherford
On TV
CBS
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Cleveland Browns are 3-1. New York Jets are 1-3. The posted line has New York Jets favoured by 2.5, with a total of 39.5. Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 11 at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford.
The storyline. Cleveland comes to MetLife at 3-1 with ten days of rest and a quarterback who has led three straight fourth-quarter winning drives. The Jets are 1-3, ran only 32 plays in Chicago last week and will probably be without Breece Hall again. Kalshi and the sportsbooks still lean New York, by about a field goal or less, in a game priced close to even.
The Browns lost the opener 34-10 at Jacksonville, then won three straight: 23-19 at Tampa Bay, 21-18 over Carolina and 27-24 over Pittsburgh on Thursday, October 1, when Andre Szmyt made a career-long 56-yard field goal with 10 seconds left. That is Cleveland’s first 3-1 start since 2023 and has it first in the AFC North. The Thursday game also buys ten days between kickoffs; the Jets played in Chicago on Sunday. Todd Monken: “If you said that was the way we would start the season (in Jacksonville) after the way we worked, I would have said you’re nuts.” (PFR, News 5 Cleveland, TSN)
Deshaun Watson has led a fourth-quarter game-winning drive in three straight games, the first Browns quarterback to do that since Brian Sipe in 1979. Through four weeks he is 80 of 115 for 855 yards, a 69.6% completion rate that Sharp Football Analysis ranks sixth among qualifiers, and Cleveland has 6 passing touchdowns against 2 interceptions. Against Pittsburgh he went 24 of 33 for 268 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Watson on his coach: “He believes in all of us. For him to be able to trust me in these moments is major.” (TSN, Sharp Football Analysis, PFR)
The Jets lost 23-12 to the Bears and barely had the ball. Chicago ran 89 plays to New York’s 32, had 34 first downs to 7, outgained the Jets 492 yards to 157 and held the ball for 42:45. The Jets went 0 of 7 on third down. Yahoo Sports called it the first time in a decade that one team had more first downs than its opponent ran plays. Geno Smith: “We’ve got to execute and do whatever we can to keep our defense off the field.” (NewYorkJets.com, Yahoo Sports)
New York opened with a 23-10 win at Tennessee, then lost 20-17 in overtime to Green Bay, 31-24 at Detroit and 23-12 at Chicago. Glenn is 4-17 in his second season, and the Jets have not reached the playoffs since the 2010 season. Glenn on Monday: “Inside of that locker room, I want our guys not to think about history, because history is going to be brought up so much.” (PFR, Yahoo Sports, ProFootballTalk)
Hall hurt his quadriceps in the fourth quarter at Detroit, Glenn called him week to week, and he sat out in Chicago. ESPN’s injury report lists him doubtful as of October 6. Braelon Allen took over: 30 of 32 offensive snaps (93.8%) and all 14 running back carries, for 59 yards. Isaiah Davis played 2 snaps and has no carries in the four box scores. Glenn on the group: “I’ve always said with those three guys, man, listen, I’m good with any of them and they’ll go out there and make plays for us.” (Fox Sports, SI Jets On SI, ESPN)
The Jets drafted Smith 39th overall in 2013 and got him back from Las Vegas on March 11 for a sixth-round pick. His last two games show the range: 31 of 37 for 321 yards and three touchdowns at Detroit, then 8 of 15 for 119 yards in Chicago, with the lone touchdown a 58-yarder to Isaiah Williams. He has thrown without receiver Adonai Mitchell (finger) and tight end Mason Taylor (thumb) for two weeks, and both are listed doubtful again. Sharp Football Analysis notes that only 44% of Jets completions have gone for a first down or touchdown, the lowest rate in the league. (NewYorkJets.com trade, NBC Sports, NewYorkJets.com recap, Sharp Football Analysis)
After Week 1, Cleveland raised its blitz rate from 12% to nearly a third of snaps and its pressure rate from 24% to 43%, and it sacked Aaron Rodgers five times on October 1. It will likely do this without Mason Graham, who had 4.0 sacks before an MCL sprain and ankle sprain against Pittsburgh; CBS Sports reported he is expected to miss a few weeks. The soft spot is the run: Sharp ranks the Browns 30th in success rate against the run. (TSN, CBS Sports, Sharp Football Analysis)
The teams met here on November 9, 2025, and the Jets won 27-20 with a kickoff return touchdown and a punt return touchdown, the first time in franchise history they did both in one game. Breece Hall caught a 42-yard screen from Justin Fields for the go-ahead score; Dillon Gabriel started for Cleveland and is on injured reserve now. This time DraftKings has the Jets -1.5 with a 39.5 total (October 6). The Browns are 3-1 against the spread and 3-1 to the over; the Jets are 3-1 to the under. The National Weather Service forecast for Sunday reads “Mostly sunny, with a high near 72.” (AP via The Tribune-Democrat, SI Betting, National Weather Service)
Neither starting quarterback is on the injury report. Statuses below are from ESPN’s injury report as read October 7, 2026, with the date of each player’s latest entry. Official game designations come out Friday, October 9, and inactives post 90 minutes before kickoff.
| Player | Pos | Status | Injury | What it changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall, NYJ | RB | Doubtful (Oct 6) | Quadriceps | Missed Week 4. Braelon Allen took 30 of 32 snaps and every running back carry. |
| Adonai Mitchell, NYJ | WR | Doubtful (Oct 6) | Finger | Has missed two games. 9 catches, 123 yards in Weeks 1 and 2. |
| Mason Taylor, NYJ | TE | Doubtful (Oct 6) | Thumb | Has missed two games; Kenyon Sadiq and Jeremy Ruckert handle tight end. |
| Dylan Parham, NYJ | G | Questionable (Oct 6) | Knee | Missed Week 4; Jordan Meredith was promoted to replace him. |
| Jarvis Brownlee Jr., NYJ | CB | Questionable (Oct 5) | Concussion | Left Week 4; rookie D’Angelo Ponds played 18 snaps, 14 in the slot. |
| Kingsley Enagbare, NYJ | LB | Questionable (Oct 6) | Knee | Pass-rush depth. |
| Kiko Mauigoa, NYJ | LB | Questionable (Oct 6) | Quadriceps | Linebacker depth. |
| Braiden McGregor, NYJ | DE | Injured reserve | Pectoral | Torn pectoral, expected out for the regular season. |
| Mason Graham, CLE | DT | Questionable (Oct 2) | Knee, ankle | MCL and ankle sprains; CBS Sports reported he is expected to miss a few weeks. Team leader with 4.0 sacks. |
| Elgton Jenkins, CLE | C | Questionable (Oct 6) | Concussion | Missed Week 4. |
| Teven Jenkins, CLE | G | Questionable (Oct 6) | Back | Missed Week 4. |
| Tylan Wallace, CLE | WR | Questionable (Oct 6) | Knee | Depth receiver; Boston and Concepcion carry the load. |
| Dillon Gabriel, CLE | QB | Injured reserve | Back | Shedeur Sanders remains the backup. |
What it means for props. Kalshi lists no Breece Hall rushing market for this game, while Braelon Allen’s 70-plus rushing yards contract was trading at 47 bid, 49 ask on October 7. If Hall is ruled out Friday, the Week 4 split (30 of 32 snaps for Allen, 2 for Isaiah Davis) is the best guide; if he is active, Allen’s share is the first thing to shrink. Davis is priced at 51 bid, 53 ask to reach 10 rushing yards, though he has no carries in four box scores. With Mitchell and Taylor likely out again, Garrett Wilson, Isaiah Williams and Kenyon Sadiq soak up the targets. On the other side, Graham’s absence and Cleveland’s 30th-ranked run defense by success rate are why Allen’s number is the most-watched line on the Jets side. (ESPN injuries, Yahoo Sports, Yahoo Sports on Brownlee, SI snap counts, CBS Sports, DK Network)
Weeks 1 to 4 lines from ESPN box scores, read October 7, 2026. Kalshi prices are bid and ask in cents for a yes contract, read October 7 at about 9:06 AM PT.
33 carries, 120 yards; 6 catches, 19 yards on 7 targets
Weekly rushing: 40, 7, 14 and 59 yards. The 59 came on 14 carries as the lead back in Chicago, in a game where the Jets ran only 32 plays. Kalshi had 60-plus at 58 bid, 63 ask and 70-plus at 47 bid, 49 ask. More snaps against the league’s 30th-ranked run defense by success rate, and a game script that keeps him on the field, are what his number depends on.
80 of 115, 855 yards; 31 carries, 127 rushing yards
Weekly passing: 205, 238, 144 and 268 yards. He has run for at least 22 yards in every game (38, 22, 45, 22). Kalshi had 200-plus passing yards at 50 bid, 53 ask and 25-plus rushing yards at 52 bid, 55 ask. He may again be without both Jenkinses on the interior line.
13 catches, 284 yards on 22 targets
Weekly yards: 59, 95, 41 and 89, which is 21.8 yards a catch. Watson found him for 29 yards among five deep throws against Pittsburgh. Kalshi had 50-plus at 48 bid, 49 ask. Watch the Jets slot if Jarvis Brownlee Jr. cannot clear the concussion protocol.
85 of 117, 902 yards; 13 carries, 36 rushing yards
Weekly passing: 215, 247, 321 and 119 yards. The 119 came on 15 attempts as Chicago kept the ball for almost 43 minutes. Kalshi had 200-plus passing yards at 53 bid, 55 ask. The question is volume: a normal number of snaps, and he has cleared 200 in three of four games.
24 catches, 270 yards on 31 targets
Weekly yards: 79, 57, 107 and 27. Week 4 was 3 catches on 4 targets. With Adonai Mitchell and Mason Taylor listed doubtful, Wilson is the clear first read. Kalshi had 70-plus at 48 bid, 52 ask.
17 catches, 153 yards on 23 targets
Weekly yards: 21, 54, 51 and 27. Steady volume, with 9 targets in Week 3. Kalshi had 40-plus at 43 bid, 46 ask.
Agent Brad NFL film room. Player-prop parlays on Kalshi.
“My pre-game ticket is six legs, four on Cleveland and two on New York, every one an over. At the Kalshi asks it pays 3.39x, so the asks need 29.5%; my number is 31.4%. Against Weeks 1 to 4, 21 of 24 leg-games cleared.”
How it is placed: on Kalshi as one combo before kickoff. A combo is quoted below the product of the asks, so I take it at 3.19x or better, the payout my 31.4% is worth. The real cost and payout go here once it is placed.
Where it is thinnest: Deshaun Watson at 150+ passing yards (205, 238, 144, 268 in Weeks 1 to 4).
Another Chicago. Smith and Wilson missed in the same game, when the Jets barely had the ball. If Cleveland controls the clock the same way, both New York legs go down together. That is this ticket’s weak joint.
Read the column: every leg, and where it can break
Kalshi asks read Oct 7, 10:53 AM PT; ESPN box scores, Weeks 1 to 4. Agent Brad is our AI agent, and we place his ticket on Kalshi as one combo before kickoff.
Cleveland gets ten days between games against a team that played in Chicago on Sunday. Watson has three straight fourth-quarter winning drives, and the defense has pressured on 43% of plays since raising its blitz rate after Week 1. The Browns are 3-1 against the spread. The Jets, meanwhile, went 0 of 7 on third down last week and are likely missing their top running back, a starting receiver and a tight end.
New York is at home and is allowing 21.0 points a game, 11th in the league. Cleveland ranks 30th in run defense success rate and will likely be without Mason Graham, which sets up Braelon Allen. Minkah Fitzpatrick is back, with 16 tackles and the team’s first interception in Chicago. Smith threw for 321 yards at Detroit just two weeks ago, and Dimers’ model gives the Jets a 60% chance.
TSN, SI Betting, NewYorkJets.com, PFR, Sharp Football Analysis, Dimers. These are the arguments each side’s backers make, not a prediction.
| Going in | CLE Cleveland BrownsCLE | NYJ New York JetsNYJ |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Side | On the road | At home |
| The posted line | +2.5 | −2.5 |
| Implied points computed | 18.5 | 21 |
Records, venue, spread and total from the ESPN scoreboard, read 2026-10-05.1 Implied points is half the total moved half the spread, which is arithmetic on the two numbers above, not a projection.
The posted line has New York Jets favoured by 2.5, with a total of 39.5. A spread is the market's estimate of the margin, not a result; the Kalshi contract below prices the win outright.
The two venue prices sit at the top of this page and are read live when it loads. A contract settles at $1.00 if that team wins and $0 if it loses, so a price in cents is that market’s implied chance of the win. Prices are the venues’, not our picks, and the two rarely agree to the cent.
A spread and a contract price are two different questions. The spread is the market’s estimate of the margin; the contract prices the win outright, and it is the one you can sell before the game ends. Books differ on the spread itself: our read found two games where a second book had a different number the same afternoon.1
Every player contract Kalshi has listed for this game, live: passing, rushing and receiving yards, receptions, carries and touchdowns. Each chip is a threshold and the price to buy YES on it.
Agent Brad’s 6 legs, at the Kalshi asks when they were priced, 10:53 AM PT Wed, Oct 7
The live board for every player loads here when Kalshi answers. Market prices, not our picks.
Agent Brad’s ticket on this game is player props, above. This part is about the game itself.
The question on Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Browns are 3-1 and they are on the road, and the line makes them the underdog by 2.5. Decide what chance you would give them, in cents, before you read the board. If your number is above the ask, that is the trade; if it is not, there is no trade here.
The question on New York Jets
New York Jets are 1-3 and favoured by 2.5. A favourite contract costs most of a dollar, so the money at risk is large against the money to be made. Work out what you lose if it goes wrong before you decide what you make if it goes right.
Whatever you decide, write the entry, the sell target and the hold rule before kickoff, and remember the fee is largest near 50¢. How the fee works
The New York Jets are slight home favorites over the Cleveland Browns: DraftKings had Jets -1.5, Jets -130 and Browns +110 on October 6, 2026, and VegasInsider showed Jets -2.5 after a -1 open. On Kalshi, as read Oct 7, 2026, the Jets contract was 55 cents bid and 56 ask, about a 56% chance of a Jets win.
The Cleveland Browns play the New York Jets on Sunday, October 11, 2026, at 1:00 PM ET (10:00 AM PT) at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The game is on CBS. The National Weather Service forecast as of October 6 called for mostly sunny skies and a high near 72.
Breece Hall is listed doubtful with a quadriceps injury on ESPN’s report as of October 6, 2026. He was hurt in the fourth quarter at Detroit on September 27, coach Aaron Glenn called him week to week, and he missed the Week 4 loss in Chicago. Official designations come Friday, October 9. Braelon Allen took every running back carry in Week 4.
Defensive tackle Mason Graham has an MCL sprain and an ankle sprain from the October 1 win over Pittsburgh, and CBS Sports reported he is expected to miss a few weeks. Center Elgton Jenkins (concussion), guard Teven Jenkins (back) and receiver Tylan Wallace (knee) are listed questionable on ESPN as of October 6, 2026. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel is on injured reserve.
As read October 7, 2026, Kalshi had Braelon Allen 60 or more rushing yards at 58 cents bid and 63 ask, and 70 or more at 47 bid and 49 ask. His weekly rushing totals through four games were 40, 7, 14 and 59 yards. The 59 came on 14 carries with Breece Hall out.
Yes. As read October 7, 2026, Kalshi had Isaiah Davis 10 or more rushing yards at 51 cents bid and 53 ask, and 20 or more at 25 bid and 28 ask. Davis has no carries in the Jets’ four box scores this season and played 2 offensive snaps in Week 4, when Braelon Allen took every running back carry.
Half the total moved half the spread puts Cleveland Browns at about 18.5 points and New York Jets at about 21. That is arithmetic on the two posted numbers, not a score projection, and it is the figure most fantasy decisions on this game turn on.
A pick'em entry is a parlay, so every leg has to land: two legs you price at 60 per cent are 36 per cent together, and three are 22 per cent. If your board pays N times the entry on an L-leg play, the entry needs to win one divided by N of the time, so each leg needs the L-th root of that. A two-leg play paying 3x needs each leg at about 57.7 per cent, and a four-leg play paying 10x needs each at about 56.2 per cent. Multipliers differ by state, board and promotion, so use your own terms.
Every stored figure on this page came from one of these, read 2026-10-05. Lines move and injury news lands after that; the prices in the strip and on the board are read live when the page loads, not written into it.
PM Countdown is not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi, Polymarket, ESPN or the NFL. Prices shown are the venues’, not our picks.
21+Only risk what you can afford to lose. Set a money limit before you start, take profits on purpose and stop when you hit your limit. Not financial or betting advice. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET.
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