NFL Week 5 · Sun, Oct 11, 6:30 AM PT
The Eagles were 2-0 three weeks ago. Now they fly to London having lost two straight, gone 0 for 12 on third down against the Rams and watched Lane Johnson retire, with Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert all hurt. Waiting at Tottenham is a 3-1 Jacksonville team that has won 11 of its last 12 regular-season games and calls London a second home. The posted line is JAX -6 with a total of 42.5, and the contract below prices the win outright.
Kickoff
6:30 AM PT
9:30 AM ET, Sun, Oct 11
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Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
London
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Philadelphia Eagles are 2-2. Jacksonville Jaguars are 3-1. The posted line has Jacksonville Jaguars favoured by 6, with a total of 42.5. Kickoff is 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, October 11 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London.
The storyline. The Eagles were 2-0 three weeks ago. Now they fly to London having lost two straight, gone 0 for 12 on third down against the Rams and watched Lane Johnson retire, with Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert all hurt. Waiting at Tottenham is a 3-1 Jacksonville team that has won 11 of its last 12 regular-season games and calls London a second home.
Two days after he was a surprise inactive against the Rams for personal reasons, Lane Johnson retired on Tuesday, October 6, saying he needs to focus on his mental health. He spent all 14 seasons in Philadelphia, made six Pro Bowls and won two Super Bowls. NFL.com notes the Eagles went 122-63-1 with him on the field and 18-30 without him. Rookie Markel Bell, a third-round pick listed at 6-foot-9 and 346 pounds, gets the right tackle job after spot duty against Los Angeles. Jordan Mailata: “Lane was the last of the old guard. Now he’s gone.” At DraftKings, Jacksonville went from -3.5 to -7 after the news. CBS Sports · NFL.com · SI Betting
The Eagles led the Rams 20-10 with under eight minutes left. Nick Sirianni passed on a field goal on fourth-and-goal from the 2, Jalen Hurts’ throw to Darius Cooper fell incomplete, and Los Angeles scored two rushing touchdowns to win 24-20. Philadelphia went 0 for 12 on third down, gained 172 yards and finished with 68 net passing yards, its lowest regular-season total in 23 years per Pro Football Network. Hurts went 12 of 27 for 93 yards with both touchdowns to Cooper. Hurts: “Poor execution. I don’t think there’s any other way to put it.” Sirianni on the fourth down: “that’s on me.” Pro Football Network · The Liberty Line
Philadelphia opened by beating Washington 24-22 and won 24-20 at Tennessee on a late touchdown pass to Cooper. Then came a 27-7 loss in Chicago on Monday night, September 28, with 248 total yards and three turnovers, and the Rams game six days later. Sunday is the third game in 14 days, this one after a flight to London. The Eagles are 26th in scoring at 18.8 points a game and 29th in total offense at 269.8 yards. CBS Sports wrote that new coordinator Sean Mannion’s offense “has not panned out,” and Sirianni’s seat has warmed, with Carolina and Dallas up next. Newsweek · Eagles.com · CBS Sports
Saquon Barkley left the Rams game in the first quarter with a hamstring injury after two carries for 8 yards. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport: “Not considered to be a major injury, but I do expect him to miss time, which means he would not be out there this week.” ESPN still lists him as questionable. Tank Bigsby, who ran 14 times for 55 yards in Barkley’s place, needs core muscle surgery and is on injured reserve. That leaves Will Shipley, who has 15 carries for 51 yards this season, against a Jaguars defense allowing 74.3 rushing yards a game, second fewest in the league, and 2.8 yards a carry to running backs. ClutchPoints · CBS Philadelphia · PhillyVoice · Sharp Football Analysis
The Jaguars went 13-4 and won the AFC South last season. This year they beat Cleveland 34-10, lost 20-13 at Denver after leading by 10 in the third quarter, then beat the Patriots 35-6 and won 22-17 at Cincinnati. That makes 11 wins in their last 12 regular-season games. The defense allows 13.3 points a game, second in the NFL, has outscored opponents 61-9 in first halves and has picked off a pass in nine straight games, the longest streak in franchise history. Liam Coen after Cincinnati: “Winning in the NFL isn’t easy, and that’s a good team.” Jaguars.com · Jaguars.com Week 2 · Sharp Football Analysis · Eagles.com
Lawrence is 72 of 104 for 843 yards through four games, with four touchdown passes in the opener against Cleveland. His 8.1 yards per attempt is a career high, per Covers, and his 111.2 passer rating ranks near the top of the league. At Cincinnati he went 18 of 23 for 227 yards and a touchdown for his first career win over the Bengals. Lawrence: “It’s hard to win. Anytime you get one, especially on the road in a tough place, it’s big.” Hurts, by contrast, is at 6.3 yards per attempt, the lowest of his career. Covers · NBC Sports · Jaguars.com
Jacksonville is the designated home team, 7-7 all-time in London and 2-1 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. This is the first of two straight London games; Houston is next. Lawrence is 4-3 in seven London starts, but he was sacked seven times in last year’s 35-7 loss to the Rams there. Borgata’s Tom Gable told VegasInsider: “Early money has come in on the Jags, laying 3.5... the Jags will be in their second home here in London.” Coen: “It’s a big week of mental toughness.” WRUF · Jaguar Report · VegasInsider
The Eagles have won five straight against Jacksonville going back to September 2010, including 24-18 at Wembley in 2018 and 28-23 in the rain at Lincoln Financial Field on November 3, 2024. This is Philadelphia’s third regular-season international game. The betting trends point the other way: the Eagles are 0-4 against the spread this season and the Jaguars 3-1, per SI. Jason Kelce is in the NFL Network booth with Dave Pasch and Kurt Warner. Eagles.com · SI Betting · Yahoo Sports
Statuses as ESPN posted them on October 5 and 6; the official game designations come out Friday. Left guard Landon Dickerson is also on injured reserve, per NFL.com.
| Player | Status | Injury | What it changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lane Johnson (PHI, RT) | Retired Oct 6 | Personal | Rookie Markel Bell starts at right tackle |
| Saquon Barkley (PHI, RB) | Questionable | Hamstring | Rapoport expects him to miss this game; Will Shipley starts |
| DeVonta Smith (PHI, WR) | Questionable | Hamstring | Missed Week 4; Dontayvion Wicks, Darius Cooper and Makai Lemon split the targets |
| Dallas Goedert (PHI, TE) | Doubtful | Knee (MCL) | Hurt in Week 2; Zach Ertz and Johnny Mundt at tight end |
| Tank Bigsby (PHI, RB) | Injured reserve | Abdomen (core muscle) | Out at least four weeks |
| Cam Jurgens (PHI, LG) | Questionable | Concussion | Willie Lampkin likely at guard if he can’t clear protocol |
| Zack Baun (PHI, LB) | Questionable | Concussion | Missed Week 4 |
| Quinyon Mitchell (PHI, CB) | Questionable | Knee | Hurt in the third quarter against the Rams |
| Jonathan Greenard (PHI, LB) | Questionable | Ankle | Day to day |
| Hollywood Brown (PHI, WR) | Questionable | Ankle | Missed the last two games |
| Fred Johnson (PHI, OT) | Questionable | Knee | Swing tackle; missed the last two games |
| Marcus Epps (PHI, S) | Questionable | Groin | Missed Week 4 |
| Caleb Ransaw (JAC, S) | Injured reserve | Knee | Hurt in the first quarter at Cincinnati |
| Eric Murray (JAC, S) | Questionable | Concussion | Left the Cincinnati game in the third quarter |
| Montaric Brown (JAC, CB) | Questionable | Hamstring | Inactive in Week 4 |
For props, the Eagles’ list matters far more than Jacksonville’s. With Barkley, Smith and Goedert likely out, Philadelphia’s touches fall to Shipley, Wicks, Cooper and Lemon, and Hurts is throwing behind a rookie right tackle and a line that may be missing Jurgens. Shipley ran 15 pass routes in Week 4, per Sharp Football Analysis, and drew one target. Jacksonville loses depth at safety, which matters little to its rushing and receiving lines. ESPN · Eagles.com inactives · Yahoo Sports · Jaguars.com
Weeks 1-4 lines from ESPN box scores, read October 7, 2026.
Jalen Hurts (PHI, QB). Weeks 1-4: 68 of 114, 713 yards; 21 carries, 105 rushing yards. By week: 203, 264, 153 and 93 passing yards. Week 4 was 12 of 27 for 93 yards and two touchdowns to Darius Cooper. He faces a Jaguars pass defense that allows 8.4 yards per attempt, 30th in the league, but he has no Barkley, probably no Smith or Goedert, and a new right tackle. His rushing has been steady: 46, 16, 25 and 18 yards.
Saquon Barkley (PHI, RB). Weeks 1-4: 36 carries, 182 yards; 4 catches, 8 yards. Two games over 80 yards, two under 10. Questionable with a hamstring and expected to sit; if he does, Will Shipley (15 carries, 51 yards; 4 catches, 24 yards) is the starter.
Trevor Lawrence (JAC, QB). Weeks 1-4: 72 of 104, 843 yards; 11 carries, 34 yards. By week: 245, 189, 182 and 227 passing yards. Accurate and efficient in a run-first offense that throws on just under half its plays. He faces an Eagles pass rush that ranks 26th in pressure rate and 30th in sack rate, per Sharp Football Analysis.
Bhayshul Tuten (JAC, RB). Weeks 1-4: 60 carries, 277 yards; 7 catches, 54 yards on 7 targets. The steadiest line in the game: 66, 65, 73 and 73 rushing yards. Week 4 brought a season-high 59% of the snaps and two touchdowns called back by penalties. Chris Rodriguez Jr. (26 carries, 108 yards) spells him.
Parker Washington (JAC, WR). Weeks 1-4: 16 catches, 228 yards on 26 targets. He had 83 and 98 yards in the first two games, then 40 and 7. Still on the field for 86.8% of snaps; the question is whether the targets come back.
Brenton Strange (JAC, TE). Weeks 1-4: 14 catches, 167 yards on 18 targets. Week 4 was a career-high 95 yards on 7 catches after 72 yards across the first three games. The Eagles have not allowed a touchdown to a tight end this season.
Jacksonville’s defense gives up yards through the air: 68.6% completions and 8.4 yards per attempt, both near the bottom of the league, and 6.0 yards per play overall, 29th. Philadelphia’s own defense allows 5.0 yards per play, 12th, so a slow, low-scoring game keeps the Eagles close. They have won five straight in this series, and Jacksonville drew 13 penalties for 125 yards at Cincinnati.
Jacksonville ranks near the top in both offensive and defensive EPA per play, while Philadelphia sits 28th on offense. The Jaguars stop the run better than almost anyone, which matters against a backfield down to Shipley, and they lead the league in points off turnovers with 38. Add the London familiarity, a rookie at right tackle for Philadelphia and an Eagles team that has scored 7 and 20 the last two weeks.
Sharp Football Analysis · SI Betting · Jaguars.com · Eagles.com. These are the arguments each side’s backers make, not a prediction.
| Going in | PHI Philadelphia EaglesPHI | JAX Jacksonville JaguarsJAX |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Side | On the road | At home |
| The posted line | +6 | −6 |
| Implied points computed | 18.25 | 24.25 |
Records, venue, spread and total from the ESPN scoreboard, read 2026-10-05.1 Implied points is half the total moved half the spread, which is arithmetic on the two numbers above, not a projection.
The posted line has Jacksonville Jaguars favoured by 6, with a total of 42.5. A spread is the market's estimate of the margin, not a result; the Kalshi contract below prices the win outright.
The two venue prices sit at the top of this page and are read live when it loads. A contract settles at $1.00 if that team wins and $0 if it loses, so a price in cents is that market’s implied chance of the win. Prices are the venues’, not our picks, and the two rarely agree to the cent.
A spread and a contract price are two different questions. The spread is the market’s estimate of the margin; the contract prices the win outright, and it is the one you can sell before the game ends. Books differ on the spread itself: our read found two games where a second book had a different number the same afternoon.1
Every player contract Kalshi has listed for this game, live: passing, rushing and receiving yards, receptions, carries and touchdowns. Each chip is a threshold and the price to buy YES on it.
Reading the Kalshi board.
No plan is posted on this game. The props section above is about one player; this is about the game itself.
The question on Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles are 2-2 and they are on the road, and the line makes them the underdog by 6. Decide what chance you would give them, in cents, before you read the board. If your number is above the ask, that is the trade; if it is not, there is no trade here.
The question on Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars are 3-1 and favoured by 6. A favourite contract costs most of a dollar, so the money at risk is large against the money to be made. Work out what you lose if it goes wrong before you decide what you make if it goes right.
Whatever you decide, write the entry, the sell target and the hold rule before kickoff, and remember the fee is largest near 50¢. How the fee works
The Jacksonville Jaguars are favored by 7 points over the Philadelphia Eagles, with a consensus moneyline of Jaguars -355 and Eagles +280 at VegasInsider as read October 7, 2026. The line opened at Jaguars -3.5. On Kalshi, as read Oct 7, 2026, Jacksonville asked 76 cents and Philadelphia 25 cents, about a 76% chance of a Jaguars win.
The Eagles and Jaguars kick off Sunday, October 11, 2026, at 9:30 AM ET (6:30 AM PT), which is 2:30 PM in London, at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. The game is on NFL Network, with Dave Pasch, Kurt Warner and Jason Kelce on the call. Jacksonville is the designated home team.
Probably not. Saquon Barkley hurt his hamstring in the first quarter of the Week 4 loss to the Rams and is listed as questionable, but NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport said on October 6 he expects Barkley to miss the game. Tank Bigsby is on injured reserve, so Will Shipley is expected to start at running back.
As of October 6, 2026, the Eagles list RB Saquon Barkley and WR DeVonta Smith (hamstrings) as questionable, TE Dallas Goedert (knee) as doubtful and RB Tank Bigsby on injured reserve. OL Cam Jurgens and LB Zack Baun are in concussion protocol. Right tackle Lane Johnson retired October 6, so rookie Markel Bell starts there.
On Kalshi, as read October 7, 2026, Jalen Hurts to throw for 200 or more yards was 45 cents bid and 48 ask, and 175 or more was 59 bid, 64 ask. Hurts has thrown for 203, 264, 153 and 93 yards in four games, so he has cleared 200 twice.
On Kalshi, as read October 7, 2026, Bhayshul Tuten to run for 60 or more yards was 55 cents bid and 58 ask, and 70 or more was 43 bid, 44 ask. Tuten has run for 66, 65, 73 and 73 yards this season, clearing 60 in all four games and 70 in two.
Half the total moved half the spread puts Philadelphia Eagles at about 18.25 points and Jacksonville Jaguars at about 24.25. That is arithmetic on the two posted numbers, not a score projection, and it is the figure most fantasy decisions on this game turn on.
A pick'em entry is a parlay, so every leg has to land: two legs you price at 60 per cent are 36 per cent together, and three are 22 per cent. If your board pays N times the entry on an L-leg play, the entry needs to win one divided by N of the time, so each leg needs the L-th root of that. A two-leg play paying 3x needs each leg at about 57.7 per cent, and a four-leg play paying 10x needs each at about 56.2 per cent. Multipliers differ by state, board and promotion, so use your own terms.
Every stored figure on this page came from one of these, read 2026-10-05. Lines move and injury news lands after that; the prices in the strip and on the board are read live when the page loads, not written into it.
PM Countdown is not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi, Polymarket, ESPN or the NFL. Prices shown are the venues’, not our picks.
21+Only risk what you can afford to lose. Set a money limit before you start, take profits on purpose and stop when you hit your limit. Not financial or betting advice. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET.
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