NFL Week 5 · Sun, Oct 11, 1:25 PM PT
Drew Petzing called plays in Glendale for three seasons. On Sunday he returns as Detroit offensive coordinator, with Jared Goff coming off a 412-yard night and an offense scoring 29.8 points a game. Arizona is 1-3, just lost left tackle Paris Johnson Jr. for the season and is managing Jeremiyah Love through an ankle issue. The catch: the Lions defense ranks last in points and yards allowed. The posted line is DET -4.5 with a total of 53.5, and the contract below prices the win outright.
Kickoff
1:25 PM PT
4:25 PM ET, Sun, Oct 11
Stadium
State Farm Stadium
Glendale
On TV
FOX
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Detroit Lions are 2-2. Arizona Cardinals are 1-3. The posted line has Detroit Lions favoured by 4.5, with a total of 53.5. Kickoff is 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, October 11 at State Farm Stadium, Glendale.
The storyline. Drew Petzing called plays in Glendale for three seasons. On Sunday he returns as Detroit offensive coordinator, with Jared Goff coming off a 412-yard night and an offense scoring 29.8 points a game. Arizona is 1-3, just lost left tackle Paris Johnson Jr. for the season and is managing Jeremiyah Love through an ankle issue. The catch: the Lions defense ranks last in points and yards allowed.
Petzing called Arizona’s offense for three seasons under Jonathan Gannon, finishing 24th, 12th and 23rd in points, with 2024’s 8-9 team the high point. When Gannon was fired he joined Dan Campbell in Detroit, and the Lions now score 29.8 points a game. It works both ways: Arizona’s defensive coaches spent three years watching his calls up close.
Sources: Heavy via Yahoo · PFR
Brissett took over in 2025 when Kyler Murray hurt his foot, and in his first start, against Indianapolis, he threw for 320 yards. Arizona released Murray in March and he signed a one-year deal with Minnesota. Brissett then held out for a new contract and got one in July worth up to $21 million for 2026, with his base salary rising from $4.88 million to $15.5 million.
He has thrown for 818 yards on 103 of 152 through four games. After a three-interception day at the Giants, two of them on tipped balls, Mike LaFleur was asked about a change and answered with one word: “No.” Gardner Minshew and rookie Carson Beck are behind him.
Sources: NFL.com · Fox News · All Cardinals · All Cardinals · Athlon
Detroit is 2-2 and has scored at least 26 points in every game, but it has allowed 30, 41, 24 and 32. Through four weeks the Lions rank 32nd in points allowed (31.8), total defense (423.8 yards), pass defense (304.8 yards) and third-down defense (52.8%). Campbell after the Carolina loss: “We have to play a lot smarter than we are right now in areas.” Detroit also has 31 penalties in four games.
Sources: PFR · Detroitlions.com · Yahoo Sports
Left tackle Paris Johnson Jr. tore his left biceps on the final drive at the Giants and is out for the season. Seventh-round rookie Jayden Williams takes over at left tackle. Right guard Isaiah Adams was carted off with an ankle injury in the second quarter, and LaFleur said he is “most likely going to be out this week,” which puts Jon Gaines II at right guard. LaFleur on Johnson: “It’s NFL football. Here we are in October. Show goes on.”
Sources: AZCardinals.com · Athlon
The rookie has 55 carries for 223 yards and 11 catches for 36 yards. At the Giants he had 6 carries for 43 yards in the first quarter, then 8 carries and one catch the rest of the way, and he sat for the last four snaps from the 4-yard line. LaFleur called the ankle “a management-type thing” and “nothing too extreme,” and said he has “so much confidence in TA,” Tyler Allgeier, inside the 5. Love is listed questionable.
Sources: Arizona Sports · Arizona Sports · ESPN injuries
Jared Goff has 1,214 yards on 109 of 161, and his attempts have gone 39, 38, 32, then 52 in the 32-26 loss at Carolina, where he threw for 412. Amon-Ra St. Brown has 31 catches on 46 targets, Jameson Williams went for 102 yards in Week 4, and Isaac TeSlaa has 161 yards over the last two weeks. Heavy credits Goff with 9 touchdowns and no interceptions, and Detroit has one turnover all season.
Sources: Detroitlions.com · Heavy via Yahoo · Yahoo Sports
Arizona hired Mike LaFleur, the Rams’ offensive coordinator and Matt LaFleur’s younger brother, after a 3-14 season. The Cardinals won the opener 26-14 at the Chargers, then lost 31-7 to Seattle in their only home game, 36-30 at San Francisco and 36-24 at the Giants, where the last play was a 98-yard pick-six. LaFleur: “All three losses that we’ve had over the last three weeks have been different.”
Sources: WTOP / AP · PFR · CBS Sports · All Cardinals
The total is 54.5, and all four Lions games have gone over, per FanDuel Research. The series history leans the other way: the under is 4-1 in the last five meetings, per SI. Detroit leads the all-time series 36-28-6 and is 5-0-1 in the last six, including a 20-13 win in Glendale on September 22, 2024. State Farm Stadium has a retractable roof and a roll-in grass field, so weather is not a big factor.
Sources: FanDuel Research · SI · Champs or Chumps · Wikipedia
Statuses are from ESPN’s report as read October 7, 2026, before the first Week 5 practice report. Official game designations come Friday.
Detroit Lions
Arizona Cardinals
For props: Arizona will have two new starters on the offensive line in front of Brissett, which matters for his passing yards and for how long routes have to develop. Kalshi did not list a Love rushing market when read, while Jahmyr Gibbs had prices from 50 to 180 yards. On Detroit’s side, losing Ya-Sin on top of Branch leaves fewer proven cover players against Trey McBride and Michael Wilson, who have drawn 90 of Brissett’s 152 pass attempts between them.
Sources: ESPN injuries · SB Nation via Yahoo · NBC Sports · AZCardinals.com · Athlon · Arizona Sports
Weeks 1 to 4 from ESPN box scores, read October 7, 2026. Kalshi prices as read the same morning, bid and ask in cents. Names link to each player’s ESPN page.
Jared Goff, DET QB. 109 of 161, 1,214 yards (206, 327, 269, 412)
Over 250 in three of four games, and the 52 attempts at Carolina came while Detroit was chasing. Arizona’s defense allows 29.3 points a game. Kalshi had Goff at 275 or more yards at 52 bid, 56 ask.
Jahmyr Gibbs, DET RB. 80 carries, 353 yards; 22 catches, 187 yards on 28 targets
His carries went 29, 16, 20, 15 and his rushing yards 156, 52, 99, 46. Kalshi had him at 80 or more rushing yards at 58 bid, 63 ask. He is also steady in the passing game, with at least four catches every week.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET WR. 31 catches, 303 yards on 46 targets (67, 142, 19, 75)
The Week 3 line of 4 for 19 is the outlier. Kalshi had 80 or more receiving yards at 48 bid, 51 ask, close to a coin flip, with Arizona’s cornerback room thinner after Will Johnson went to IR.
Jacoby Brissett, ARI QB. 103 of 152, 818 yards (277, 95, 280, 166); 15 carries, 43 yards
He faces the league’s worst pass defense behind a line with a rookie at left tackle. Kalshi had 250 or more passing yards at 61 bid, 66 ask; he has cleared 250 twice.
Trey McBride, ARI TE. 33 catches, 242 yards on 46 targets (95, 41, 75, 31)
Double-digit targets every week, though his yards per catch fell to 4.4 in Week 4. Detroit’s pass defense allows 304.8 yards a game. Kalshi had 70 or more receiving yards at 58 bid, 62 ask.
Jeremiyah Love, ARI RB. 55 carries, 223 yards; 11 catches, 36 yards on 13 targets
His best day was Week 3 at San Francisco, 21 carries for 90. Watch Friday’s designation and his first-quarter workload: at the Giants he had 43 of his 63 yards in the first quarter.
Detroit averages 29.8 points and has one turnover in four games, and it faces an Arizona defense allowing 29.3 points a game. Arizona’s offense, meanwhile, has two new starters on its line in front of Brissett. Petzing knows this building and much of this roster. FanDuel has Detroit at -230 and numberFire gives the Lions a 66.4% chance.
Detroit ranks last in points, yards and third-down defense, and it is down Branch and probably Ya-Sin. McBride and Michael Wilson have 90 targets between them, and Arizona’s defense just had its best game since Week 1: 319 yards allowed, 4 sacks and 3 takeaways at the Giants. Arizona is 2-0 against the spread as an underdog of 5.5 or more this season, per FanDuel Research.
These are the arguments each side’s backers make, not a prediction.
Sources: PFR · PFR · Athlon · FanDuel Research · Yahoo Sports
| Going in | DET Detroit LionsDET | ARI Arizona CardinalsARI |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Side | On the road | At home |
| The posted line | −4.5 | +4.5 |
| Implied points computed | 29 | 24.5 |
Records, venue, spread and total from the ESPN scoreboard, read 2026-10-05.1 Implied points is half the total moved half the spread, which is arithmetic on the two numbers above, not a projection.
The posted line has Detroit Lions favoured by 4.5 on the road, with a total of 53.5. A spread is the market's estimate of the margin, not a result; the Kalshi contract below prices the win outright.
The two venue prices sit at the top of this page and are read live when it loads. A contract settles at $1.00 if that team wins and $0 if it loses, so a price in cents is that market’s implied chance of the win. Prices are the venues’, not our picks, and the two rarely agree to the cent.
A spread and a contract price are two different questions. The spread is the market’s estimate of the margin; the contract prices the win outright, and it is the one you can sell before the game ends. Books differ on the spread itself: our read found two games where a second book had a different number the same afternoon.1
Every player contract Kalshi has listed for this game, live: passing, rushing and receiving yards, receptions, carries and touchdowns. Each chip is a threshold and the price to buy YES on it.
Reading the Kalshi board.
No plan is posted on this game. The props section above is about one player; this is about the game itself.
The question on Arizona Cardinals
Arizona Cardinals are 1-3 and they are at home, and the line makes them the underdog by 4.5. Decide what chance you would give them, in cents, before you read the board. If your number is above the ask, that is the trade; if it is not, there is no trade here.
The question on Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions are 2-2 and favoured by 4.5. A favourite contract costs most of a dollar, so the money at risk is large against the money to be made. Work out what you lose if it goes wrong before you decide what you make if it goes right.
Whatever you decide, write the entry, the sell target and the hold rule before kickoff, and remember the fee is largest near 50¢. How the fee works
The Detroit Lions are road favorites. FanDuel had Detroit -5.5 with a -230 moneyline (Arizona +190) on October 6, 2026, and DraftKings had Lions -4.5, -218. On Kalshi, as read Oct 7, 2026, the Lions contract was 70 cents bid and 71 ask, about a 71% chance of a Detroit win.
The Lions play the Cardinals on Sunday, October 11, 2026, at 4:25 PM ET (1:25 PM PT) at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. The game is on FOX. Arizona does not use daylight saving time, so local kickoff is 1:25 PM.
As of October 7, 2026, Lions S Brian Branch (Achilles) is out and CB Rock Ya-Sin (hamstring) is doubtful. For Arizona, LT Paris Johnson Jr. is on injured reserve for the season, G Isaiah Adams (ankle) is likely out, and RB Jeremiyah Love (ankle) is questionable. Final designations come Friday.
Jeremiyah Love is listed questionable with an ankle injury as of October 7, 2026. Mike LaFleur called it a lingering, management-type issue and nothing too extreme. Love played Week 4, with 14 carries for 63 yards, but sat for the final four snaps from the Giants 4-yard line.
Arizona released Kyler Murray in March 2026 and he signed with Minnesota. Jacoby Brissett, who started for Arizona after Murray’s foot injury in 2025, signed a new deal worth up to $21 million for 2026. After his three-interception game at the Giants, LaFleur said no to a quarterback change.
On Kalshi, as read October 7, 2026, Jared Goff at 275 or more passing yards was 52 cents bid and 56 ask, and 300 or more was 37 bid, 41 ask. Goff has thrown for 206, 327, 269 and 412 yards in Weeks 1 to 4, and Detroit’s opponents allow plenty of points.
Half the total moved half the spread puts Detroit Lions at about 29 points and Arizona Cardinals at about 24.5. That is arithmetic on the two posted numbers, not a score projection, and it is the figure most fantasy decisions on this game turn on.
A pick'em entry is a parlay, so every leg has to land: two legs you price at 60 per cent are 36 per cent together, and three are 22 per cent. If your board pays N times the entry on an L-leg play, the entry needs to win one divided by N of the time, so each leg needs the L-th root of that. A two-leg play paying 3x needs each leg at about 57.7 per cent, and a four-leg play paying 10x needs each at about 56.2 per cent. Multipliers differ by state, board and promotion, so use your own terms.
Every stored figure on this page came from one of these, read 2026-10-05. Lines move and injury news lands after that; the prices in the strip and on the board are read live when the page loads, not written into it.
PM Countdown is not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi, Polymarket, ESPN or the NFL. Prices shown are the venues’, not our picks.
21+Only risk what you can afford to lose. Set a money limit before you start, take profits on purpose and stop when you hit your limit. Not financial or betting advice. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET.
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