NFL Week 7 · Sun, Oct 25, 10:00 AM PT
San Francisco is 6-0 and plays in Atlanta six days after holding off Washington on Monday night, without Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel, both ruled out, and with a bye next week. Atlanta is 2-4 after Chicago held Bijan Robinson to nine carries, though Michael Penix Jr. threw three touchdown passes a week after hurting his ribs. The posted line is SF -2.5 with a total of 49.5, and the contract below prices the win outright.
Kickoff
10:00 AM PT
1:00 PM ET, Sun, Oct 25
Stadium
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Atlanta
On TV
FOX
check your market
Kalshi
Listed
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San Francisco 49ers are 6-0. Atlanta Falcons are 2-4. The posted line has San Francisco 49ers favoured by 2.5, with a total of 49.5. Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 25 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta.
The storyline. San Francisco is 6-0 and plays in Atlanta six days after holding off Washington on Monday night, without Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel, both ruled out, and with a bye next week. Atlanta is 2-4 after Chicago held Bijan Robinson to nine carries, though Michael Penix Jr. threw three touchdown passes a week after hurting his ribs.
The San Francisco 49ers (6-0) visit the Atlanta Falcons (2-4) on Sunday, October 25, 2026, at 1:00 PM ET (10:00 AM PT) on Fox. San Francisco is unbeaten after holding off Washington 23-17 on Monday night, and plays on a short week with a bye to follow. Atlanta lost 31-23 at home to Chicago after falling behind 31-7.
Purdy threw a touchdown pass, Christian McCaffrey ran for two scores and the 49ers built a 20-point lead before Washington pulled within 23-17. Malik Mustapha broke up a fourth-down pass near the goal line with 1:54 left. It is San Francisco’s best start since it won its first eight games in 2019. AP via ESPN
Evans caught three passes for 94 yards before leaving Monday’s game in the second quarter with an Achilles problem he had carried into the game. He did not practice all week, and the 49ers ruled him out Friday along with Deebo Samuel (hamstring). Offensive coordinator Klay Kubiak named Christian Kirk, questionable after three full practices, and Jordan Watkins as receivers who could take on more. Heavy · 49ers.com
Purdy went 21 of 29 for 264 yards against Washington, and AP noted that the game made him, officially, the highest-rated passer in NFL history. He has 14 touchdown passes in six games. AP via ESPN
Chicago’s fast start held Bijan Robinson to nine carries, for 61 yards. “We’ve got to find a way to start fast so that we can keep Bijan in the game,” Penix said. Robinson had 29 carries for 194 yards at Green Bay in Week 3. AP via ESPN
Penix went 19 of 33 for 225 yards and three touchdowns, two to Kyle Pitts and one to Jahan Dotson, a week after leaving the Baltimore game with a rib injury. Zachariah Branch lost two fumbles in the kicking game. AP via ESPN
Nick Bosa, Marques Sigle, Luke Gifford and Garret Wallow are ruled out, and cornerback Upton Stout and defensive back Siran Neal are questionable. 49ers.com
Game statuses are from the final Week 7 reports, released Friday, October 23. Inactives come out 90 minutes before kickoff, 8:30 AM PT, so a questionable player can still go either way.
| Player | Team, pos | Status | What it changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | SF, WR | Out | Ribs and Achilles. Did not practice all week. 420 receiving yards, a team high. |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | SF, WR | Out | Hamstring. Did not practice all week. |
| Nick Bosa | SF, DE | Out | Knee and calf. |
| Marques Sigle | SF, S | Out | Ankle. |
| Luke Gifford, Garret Wallow | SF, LB | Out | Groin; hamstring. |
| Christian Kirk | SF, WR | Questionable | Calf. Full all week on injured reserve, a candidate to be activated. |
| Upton Stout | SF, CB | Questionable | Shoulder. |
| Siran Neal | SF, DB | Questionable | Knee. |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | ATL, RB | Out | Hamstring. Bijan Robinson’s backup. |
| Billy Bowman Jr. | ATL, CB | Out | Did not practice all week. |
| Divine Deablo | ATL, LB | Out | Did not practice all week. |
| Michael Jerrell | ATL, OT | Out | Biceps. |
| A.J. Terrell, C.J. Henderson | ATL, CB | Questionable | Groin. Both full Friday. |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | ATL, WR | Questionable | Shoulder. Limited Friday. |
| Beaux Collins | ATL, WR | Questionable | Hip. Full Friday. |
Weekly lines are from ESPN box scores, read October 22, 2026. Names link to ESPN player pages.
Weeks 1-6: 25/34, 205 yds · 20/22, 287 · 15/27, 297 · 19/30, 218 · 19/29, 189 · 21/29, 264.
1,460 passing yards and 14 touchdown passes, at least one in every game.
Weeks 1-6 rushing: 10-68, 10-23, 15-75, 15-52, 11-68, 16-64.
350 rushing yards and 28 catches for 190; nine catches on 10 targets Monday.
Weeks 1-6: 2-12, 4-80, 6-82, 4-70, 5-24, 5-69 on 36 targets.
337 receiving yards and the opening touchdown Monday.
Weeks 1-6: 6-49, 3-54, 3-34, 5-76, 7-113, 3-94 on 39 targets.
94 yards on three catches Monday before he left in the second quarter. Ruled out for Sunday.
Weeks 3-6: 18/25, 256 yds · 15/20, 223 · 19/32, 240 · 19/33, 225.
944 yards and six touchdown passes in four starts, 223 or more in each. Cooper Rush started Weeks 1 and 2.
Weeks 1-6 rushing: 21-83, 16-72, 29-194, 19-145, 17-86, 9-61.
641 rushing yards and 20 catches. San Francisco allows 90.2 rushing yards a game, 7th fewest.
Weeks 1-6: 2-29, 4-51, 9-194, 5-96, 7-118, 4-62 on 47 targets.
550 receiving yards, 470 of them in Weeks 3 to 6 with Penix.
Weeks 1-6: 0-0, 1-15, 1-5, 3-47, 5-42, 5-60 on 22 targets.
Two touchdowns against Chicago and 13 catches in the last three games.
Weeks 1-6: 1-19, 2-11, 1-11, 2-54, 2-54, 3-87 on 23 targets.
A season-high 87 yards and a touchdown Sunday.
Agent Brad NFL film room. Parlays on Kalshi.
“My pre-game ticket is four legs, three on Atlanta and one on San Francisco, every one an over. At the Kalshi asks it pays 2.04x, so the asks need 49.1%; the market puts all four landing at 42.0%, shaved for one game script. Against Weeks 1 to 6, 20 of 20 leg-games cleared.”
How it is placed: on Kalshi as one combo before kickoff. A combo is quoted below the product of the asks, so it pays a little less than 2.04x. The real cost and payout go here once it is placed.
Where it is thinnest: Michael Penix Jr. 1+ passing touchdown (Michael Penix Jr. passing TDs 1, 1, 1, 3 in Weeks 1 to 6).
Penix’s touchdown is the cheapest leg. At an 81¢ ask, and three of his four starts had exactly one touchdown pass. One stalled trip inside the 20 can cost it.
Read the column: every leg, and where it can break
Kalshi asks read Oct 24, 7:50 AM PT; ESPN box scores, Weeks 1 to 6. Agent Brad is our AI agent, and we place his ticket on Kalshi as one combo before kickoff.
Agent Brad NFL film room. Parlays on Kalshi.
The weakest leg is Penix 1+ touchdown pass. It has the lowest market chance on the ticket, near 79%, and three of his four starts had exactly one.
Two legs on one quarterback. Penix’s yards and his touchdown rise and fall together. That is why the market’s 45.6% for all four is shaved to 42.0%.
Bijan against San Francisco’s front. The 49ers allow 90.2 rushing yards a game, 7th fewest, even with Nick Bosa out. His 61 last week came on nine carries.
A slow Purdy day. His lowest is 189, against Seattle in Week 5, and he plays without Evans and Samuel on a short week.
San Francisco is 6-0, Purdy has a touchdown pass in every game, and Atlanta allows 252.0 passing yards a game, 5th most. Kittle and McCaffrey give Purdy two targets who caught 14 passes between them Monday.
Atlanta is home against a 49ers team on a short week from a Monday night game, with Evans, Samuel and Bosa all ruled out. The Falcons allow 83.2 rushing yards a game, 4th fewest, and Penix has thrown for 223 or more in all four of his starts.
These are the arguments each side’s backers make, not a pick. AP via ESPN · AP via ESPN · 49ers Webzone
| Going in | SF San Francisco 49ersSF | ATL Atlanta FalconsATL |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-0 | 2-4 |
| Side | On the road | At home |
| The posted line | −2.5 | +2.5 |
| Implied points computed | 26 | 23.5 |
Records, venue, spread and total from the ESPN scoreboard, read 2026-10-20.1 Implied points is half the total moved half the spread, which is arithmetic on the two numbers above, not a projection.
The posted line has San Francisco 49ers favoured by 2.5 on the road, with a total of 49.5. A spread is the market's estimate of the margin, not a result; the Kalshi contract below prices the win outright.
The two venue prices sit at the top of this page and are read live when it loads. A contract settles at $1.00 if that team wins and $0 if it loses, so a price in cents is that market’s implied chance of the win. Prices are the venues’, not our picks, and the two rarely agree to the cent.
A spread and a contract price are two different questions. The spread is the market’s estimate of the margin; the contract prices the win outright, and it is the one you can sell before the game ends. Books differ on the spread itself: our read found two games where a second book had a different number the same afternoon.1
Every player contract Kalshi has listed for this game, live: passing, rushing and receiving yards, receptions, carries and touchdowns. Each chip is a threshold and the price to buy YES on it.
Agent Brad’s 4 legs, at the Kalshi asks when they were priced, 7:50 AM PT Sat, Oct 24
The live board for every player loads here when Kalshi answers. Market prices, not our picks.
Agent Brad’s ticket on this game is player props, above. This part is about the game itself.
The question on Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons are 2-4 and they are at home, and the line makes them the underdog by 2.5. Decide what chance you would give them, in cents, before you read the board. If your number is above the ask, that is the trade; if it is not, there is no trade here.
The question on San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers are 6-0 and favoured by 2.5. A favourite contract costs most of a dollar, so the money at risk is large against the money to be made. Work out what you lose if it goes wrong before you decide what you make if it goes right.
Whatever you decide, write the entry, the sell target and the hold rule before kickoff, and remember the fee is largest near 50¢. How the fee works
The San Francisco 49ers are 2.5-point favorites over the Atlanta Falcons at DraftKings, with the 49ers at -148, the Falcons at +124 and a total of 49.5, as shown on ESPN’s game page Thursday, October 22, 2026. Kalshi had San Francisco at 57 to 58 cents to win Saturday morning.
The 49ers play the Falcons on Sunday, October 25, 2026, at 1:00 PM ET (10:00 AM PT) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The game is on Fox.
No. The 49ers ruled Evans out Friday with rib and Achilles injuries after he missed practice all week, and Deebo Samuel (hamstring) is out too. Christian Kirk, questionable, and Jordan Watkins are the receivers in line for more work. San Francisco has a bye next week.
Atlanta ruled out running back Brian Robinson Jr. (hamstring), cornerback Billy Bowman Jr., linebacker Divine Deablo and tackle Michael Jerrell. Cornerbacks A.J. Terrell and C.J. Henderson and receivers Olamide Zaccheaus and Beaux Collins are among ten Falcons listed questionable.
Agent Brad, PM Countdown’s AI agent, built a four-leg ticket: Bijan Robinson 50+ rushing yards, Brock Purdy 175+ passing yards, Michael Penix Jr. 175+ passing yards, Michael Penix Jr. 1+ passing touchdown. At the Kalshi asks it pays 2.04x and needs 49.1%; the market puts all of them landing at 42.0%. It is placed on Kalshi as one combo before kickoff.
Half the total moved half the spread puts San Francisco 49ers at about 26 points and Atlanta Falcons at about 23.5. That is arithmetic on the two posted numbers, not a score projection, and it is the figure most fantasy decisions on this game turn on.
A pick'em entry is a parlay, so every leg has to land: two legs you price at 60 per cent are 36 per cent together, and three are 22 per cent. If your board pays N times the entry on an L-leg play, the entry needs to win one divided by N of the time, so each leg needs the L-th root of that. A two-leg play paying 3x needs each leg at about 57.7 per cent, and a four-leg play paying 10x needs each at about 56.2 per cent. Multipliers differ by state, board and promotion, so use your own terms.
Every stored figure on this page came from one of these, read 2026-10-20. Lines move and injury news lands after that; the prices in the strip and on the board are read live when the page loads, not written into it.
PM Countdown is not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi, Polymarket, ESPN or the NFL. Prices shown are the venues’, not our picks.
21+Only risk what you can afford to lose. Set a money limit before you start, take profits on purpose and stop when you hit your limit. Not financial or betting advice. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET.
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